Condor Gold Share Discussion Threads

[usmcgs] 23/12/2015 08:51

Temujiin Agree ref $56 and even mc has stated so.From this level, of $7, there are many multiples we could reach between.Imo though I do think a lot more rests on a deal than you

[andy] 23/12/2015 08:48

Tem,

"BTW, can you post the company names of as you say, 'plenty of distressed assets' that are for sale and equivalent or better than CNR?"

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I didn't say "better", because that is subjective!

On the TSX Venture Exchange there are around 975 mining companies. Of those, around 700 have a market cap of CAD $1 million or less! That is £500,000 or less in our money.

Most of those companies are dead in the water because they cannot raise finance to move to the next step and advance their projects. Among those are some decent projects, but they are virtually all stuck in the mud.

They are running out of money and cannot raise more, some are deferring salaries to keep the lights on. They are sitting ducks waiting for a white knight to ride over the horizon. When the next set of listing fees are due I think some will vanish, although I believe the TSX is allowing deferrals to try and assist those that cannot pay them.

Is CNR better value than all of them? I sincerely doubt it, and again value is subjective. CNR will certainly be better than some, maybe most, but I doubt all, so there are other bargains out there just waiting for someone to arrive to save them.

At the recent Mines and No Money show in London the desperation of some was clear to see, and these guys aren't in the sub $1 million club either!

So cast your eye down the list of TSX miners, and there are certainly some bargains there, everyone you speak to is "undervalued", but the market can remain irrational longer than we can stay solvent!

[andy] 23/12/2015 08:26

Tem,

Hard luck on Oxus, I think it's all over now.

Any appeal would cost a lot of money and maybe they will take the compensation they have been given and distribute it? (minus outstanding bills of course).

A very sad day, once again shareholders shafted.

[temujiin] 23/12/2015 07:17

Andy, I don't think he'll achieve $56/oz either but I don't know at what price $/oz he will achieve.

What imo we need to remember is that CNR are selling a gold asset. Any buyer has to justify a $/oz for the gold asset, not what multiple of our current share price is, which fluctuates.

BTW, can you post the company names of as you say, 'plenty of distressed assets' that are for sale and equivalent or better than CNR?

[andy] 22/12/2015 23:57

Temujiin,

I don't think he has a hope of achieving $56 or anything like it personally, there are plenty of distressed assets out there, and a dearth of buyers coming to the rescue.

Gold is stubbornly resisting rising,so unless that situation changes, it's hard to see a large premium being paid for a distressed asset when there is so much choice.

The buyer has to justify the price to their shareholders, so a large premium to CNR's current shareprice would be a hard ask.

[temujiin] 22/12/2015 20:58

'mc stating twice we will not go for average price.''

MC so far indicated $56/oz would be difficult for a TO company to justify to it's shareholders and also that $56/oz would be very 'acceptable' for CNR. So being sensible $56/oz is not going to happen.

So with $56/oz being the going rate last year, what will the going rate for our asset next year? $50/oz, $40/oz, $30/oz. I don't know. What I do suspect is that current $7/oz is not in any way likely to be the 'going rate' in 2016.

[usmcgs] 22/12/2015 20:25

The market clearly does not believe things are 8n cnr's favour90 to 40 to 23. All after news and part gaffs. 90 to 40 placing at lower than first agreed. 40 to 23 on Sr and mc stating twice we will not go for average price.

[usmcgs] 22/12/2015 20:20

Yes they could probably raise money but at what price?MC has already raised concerns here

[temujiin] 22/12/2015 19:35

Usmcgs, the share price has 'already dropped significantly' and there is a limit to how low any asset can go, be that PM, PoO, milk or honey. CNR's asset is by peer standards, very good, and certainly better than $7/oz. Yes they will need to raise money at some point, but atm there is no likelihood of CNR diluting to go mining. It's clearly JV, sale or effectively snail pacing.

Andy, CNR are not a mining company and I am making less of an assumption than you might think. I post what I believe to be actual, after doing some research, including contact with CNR. You're right, CNR aren't going bust, they can raise money quite easily. Look at Forte, they raised cash with an share price less than 0.1p.

Getting away from the froth, the questions are

Do CNR have a desirable asset - Yes
Have CNR got enough money for the forseeable - Yes
What will PoG do - ???

[usmcgs] 22/12/2015 19:32

All I see is an annoying black mark on my screen. Just like a fly I just want to swat it

[andy] 22/12/2015 18:43

Temujin,

You are making some big assumptions there I would assume cashburn is as was, until MC confirms it is not, via RNS.

These mining companies have a habit of running out of cash faster than you think!

They CAN raise money, they are not going bust!

The issue is the price they raise that money at, and the dilution for existing holders.

[usmcgs] 22/12/2015 18:03

Temujiin The issue is if the there no deal the share price is odds on to drop significantly. At someme point mc will need to raise finances. The lower the share price the more dilution. Some are saying just raise a few million but imo the market is showing no signs of an apetite for the resource sector. Therefore raising the odd few million piecemeal could become more and more dilutive with the market getting no certainty of getting to the end game. The company needs a huge amount to become a miner and without a deal mc has admitted that the dilution would be too much for the company and holders.

[jeanesy] 22/12/2015 14:55

MC should have clarified cash in bank a long time ago. Because he hasn't these are priced to go down in January. You cant even get a quote to sell any amount of shares even if you wanted to. This is a very sorry state of affairs. Mc needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat very soon.

[temujiin] 22/12/2015 14:13

If MC achieves what he aims to achieve, ie £1m ($1.5m) in the bank at year end, and cash burn is as low as $100-$150k / month as I think it is, and lets face it there isn't huge overheads once exploration is suspended, then dilution isn't on the horizon at all with those figures. It would be good for MC to clarify cash in bank and cash burn either in an RNS update or via a presentation though.

[jeanesy] 22/12/2015 10:40

Still no news on site visits. The EIA has been submitted. Surely any buyer will wait until that is approved. The destiny of all holders depends on this result provided it comes before the money runs out. Our fate will be known within 9 weeks ~( 3 weeks in up to a 3 month process). If you believe it will be granted then surely someone will buy .. if not then .. !

[andy] 22/12/2015 10:13

jeanesy,

I guess rural land in Nicaragua is cheap, so not really a concern in the grand scheme of things.

And they will be able to raise more money if needed, it's the price they will be able to raise it at, and the resulting dilution, that are the areas of concern.

Every company can raise money, it's just the terms that can be onerous to existing holders.

[jeanesy] 22/12/2015 08:00

I have read on another bb that CNR has already started buying some rural land. They also go on to say that management has also been further trimmed on the exploration side. Surely the company would not be doing this ..if we had no money left.. would it.. we live in hope?!

[andy] 21/12/2015 21:59

Ramper alert! :-)

[harebridge] 21/12/2015 20:29

Jeansey- can see this consolidating around the 0p level very soon.

[usmcgs] 21/12/2015 14:04

Jeansy You optimist lol

[andy] 21/12/2015 13:27

randika,

You may well be right, but he said "upper quartile", and that's meaningless without stipulating what that is compared to, and the source of the information.

If the information was independent research, fine, but there's not much of that around, it's normally commissioned one way or another.

[jeanesy] 21/12/2015 13:18

There is not much more that this can fall... its only 23.5 p until zero!!!

[usmcgs] 21/12/2015 13:00

Just the that there is a deal Without 1 things are no got going to be pretty. In fact you may need to get a pair of binoculars to see the fall

[jeanesy] 21/12/2015 11:14

All very quiet here. There must surely be news here very soon , one way or the other. We should not have long to wait now until our fate is known.