Conder Environmental Share Discussion Threads

[maxbubble] 18/8/2006 09:19

AT THE SAME
TIME, WE ARE EVALUATING THREE FURTHER OIL AND GAS LICENCES IN RUSSIA AND A
FURTHER ANNOUNCEMENT WILL BE MADE IN DUE COURSE IF APPROPRIATE."

[andy] 18/8/2006 09:16

Mujahid2,

Sorry but if they couldn't convince the city at 5p, they haven't a chance at 10p!

If they try again, my guess would be around 2 - 3p, and if successful, at least CDE would be on AIM and they could begin to increase shareholder value.

I see the price is looking weaker today, SVE Sp will reduce soon I think.

[andy] 18/8/2006 09:13

Judgement,

Fair comment, although the Pechora asset had been audited by a US company, so the assets were certainly there, although obviously I have not seen the numbers they were presenting to the city to try and build the book.

I'm not sure they were looking at any other assets as Pechora was the chosen one, and I would imagine all their energy has gone into the fundraising.

A fundraising at the price you mention would be a killer IMO, I think they should try again for Pechora, but at a reduced price.

September may be a better time to try and do this.

[mujahid2] 17/8/2006 22:28

i feel they need to play it big and create more shareholder value, AIM foat has to take 10p and institution must be persuaded that the assets are worth their time. Its all doom unless they sort it now.

regards

[judgement] 17/8/2006 21:40

Hi Andy,

I take your point about having failed to raise funds at 5p. The implication in my second para is that Pechora probably wasn't worth what Concorde had offered to pay. If Pechora had been a good deal, then some value could fairly be attributed to the management (and hence the existing equity). Since I don't believe it was, then I'd say management's credibility and intangible value has to be pretty low, especially given the amount of investor cash they've blown in the process of the Pechora negotiations.

They may still come up with the goods on another deal, but the likelihood has to be low on the evidence of their short track record. I wouldn't be surprised to see another smallish fundraising soon to assist in seeking new opportunities. Should it occur, it will be interesting to see the price and the name of the investor. I'd guess £400k gross @0.75p => 53.3m more shares, to net £300k.

I won't comment further, but shall continue to monitor their progress with interest.

[mujahid2] 17/8/2006 14:37

2.5p threw d&g

[andy] 17/8/2006 13:26

Judgement,

I was trying to remember who had made that post!

I remember it well, and it was a good call, and sadly it turned out to be prophetic.

I don't agree with your last paragraph however, as I don't think you can draw that conclusion from the announcement at all. they tried to do it at 5p, and couldn't, that's it.

It wouldn't surprise me if they go through another broker, but at a lower price.

[judgement] 17/8/2006 13:14

Previously I commented about the pricing of equity raising, and from memory suggested that anything in excess of 2p would be unlikely, due to excessive value being attributed to the existing equity.

From the most recent announcement it sounds like they couldn't raise the funding even at next to 0p. That would imply that the Pechora asset deal itself was poor (possibly worth less than the asking price), and there is negligible value attributable to management.

[mujahid2] 17/8/2006 12:06

who phoned the company and asked "is the deal on or off" and what was the response?

[andy] 17/8/2006 11:23

tpvest,

True, the current deal is certainly off.

If they can find a broker to take it on, I think they could resurrect it, but they will have to move quickly.

[andy] 17/8/2006 11:22

tonester30ccfc,

I agree, clearly the vendors Pechora want to sell, and they will be actively looking for other potential buyers, or they may have some already for all we know.

However, CDE have done all the required DD and legal work already, so 'IF' they reach a position where they can raise the required cash, they could move very quickly indeed.

If I was Peter Hughes, I would be doing the rounds of brokers looking for one to underwrite the deal ASAP.

I fear that will be at a lower price than 5p though!

Still, as long as they can get it away, holders will benefit in the longer term, because I think he has the experience to build shareholder value.

[topvest] 17/8/2006 11:11

Lots of wishful thinking in my opinion. If the deal is off, it is off!

[tonester30ccfc] 17/8/2006 10:55

Commiserations guys,

Just be mindful of the fact that a fresh look at finance will involve fresh fees, all of which are of no benefit to the end game. Fantastic for the broker, bad news for shareholders. You cannot assume either that Pechora are waiting for CDE to arrange finance. If they are up for sale, then there may be other suitors

Tone

[andy] 17/8/2006 10:47

wassaper,

Good point re the DD.

Any company wanting to do a deal with Pechora would have to start at the beginning, and the DD would take them a couple of months at least, so CDE have time to try and raise the funds again, as they could move very quickly if the funds were available.

Maybe the proposed deal could be restructured in some way so the initial payment is less, and a royalty or delayed payment be made later?

I am sure Peter Hughes is going throught these possible options, and whilst CDE have suffered a setback. the game isn't over yet IMO.

Switching to a broker that could achieve this would probably be a good first step IMO.

[wassapper] 17/8/2006 10:37

That is the case because I rang and asked them! There is no smoke and mirrors here, they did not get the cash, option expired. However, if they do raise cash in Septenber (new broker? better market?) then they have done the DD on Pechora and could rock and roll very quickly IMHO.

[seagreen] 17/8/2006 10:29

wassaper.....funily enough I read it like that too....lets hope they have not then

[wassapper] 17/8/2006 09:14

Snowman - could not raise the cash - you are correct there.

[snowman69] 17/8/2006 08:29

Johnma

The management didn't choose not to complelete the deal in the interest of shareholders, they just couldn't raise the cash.

Keep faith by all means but don't delude yourself or others.

[fromtheblue] 17/8/2006 08:19

Not exactly what I had expected coming back from holiday. Sold out at 2p to take losses against gains elsewhere. Cannot see any value here looking forward - the dream is over for now. Good luck to all still holding.

[wassapper] 17/8/2006 08:07

did I say they have lost the deal? Can't you read Mujahid ...

16 AUGUST 2006

Concorde Oil and Gas plc
("Concorde" or "the Company")


Acquisition Update

Due to continued adverse market conditions, it has not been possible to
complete the acquisition of Pechora Energy within the modified timeframe.

The Company is currently evaluating available options, and remains committed to
continuing operations in the international hydrocarbons industry. A further
release will be made in due course.

[leesonlookalike] 17/8/2006 07:58

defo holding johnma :-) wouldnt sell at this price.

[johnma] 17/8/2006 07:18

Strike the deal which is right for the business in the long term.

The business of acquisitions is a major risk, I feel the management have acted in the best interests of the shareholders by not concluding a deal which is not right for the long term interests.

Its like buying that house you feel in love with, the next one always seems better. Keep faith guys.

[mujahid2] 16/8/2006 22:54

wassapper how do you know theyve lost the deal.

[wassapper] 16/8/2006 22:50

I think they will look to get the best advice they can from now on - better broker maybe. They have not given up