Concepta Share Discussion Threads

[b3121] 04/9/2016 19:50

Thanks for sharing!

My understanding is similar, however, i think that the news from sales in China may come towards the back end of September. But i'm happy about that because it gives me more time to top up :p

This is a very exciting share and i believe that these hotly anticipated nuggets of news will generate a lot of buzz - so i'm happy to wait for it! Hopefully we will get an update on the UK/EU CE marking application too.

AIMHO - DYOR

[smart_investor] 04/9/2016 19:13

I have been spending some time revisiting some content to try and get a handle on when to expect news. We were told by RNS "We are expecting a highly active start to our life on AIM, with the roll out of My Lotus in China set to commence in Q3 2016 and thereafter in the UK and Europe in 2017."

Then from the Investor Presentation the fowling line I have taken note of:
'First order from distributor with payment in advance is expected following hospital testing and soon after AIM admission'

Also from the from the Admission Document:
Regulatory approvals for launch in China in place - first order from distributor with payment in advance expected following hospital testing after AIM admission


So by the end of this month of September we are due:
1) Confirmation and approval of successful hospital testing
2) Launch of the My Lotus product in China
3) Confirmation on contract terms and payment from Chinese distributor

Been quiet on news in the first month, but it looks like an exciting September in prospect. Hard to put a guess on what the first payment will be worth. £100,000? £250,000? Anything significantly more will surely bring further interest into the share. Have a good week.

[andysand] 02/9/2016 15:24

This pullback was inevitable and predictable. As a matter of fact, I was keeping a lot of dry powder in anticipation of it. My order hasn't yet been triggered but it might be soon. Hoping....

[smart_investor] 02/9/2016 12:41

Little drop there but there is plenty buying into it. We are less than 10% of our highs now. Took the opportunity to buy more in the 18's. Looks like 18p is the new 12p. If we can move up from here and consolidate in the 20's that will be great. Then it is a waiting game for news from our first payment from China. I see Shareprophets have done another write up on Concepta. Take a look.

[andysand] 02/9/2016 12:32

It's not a true spread though. I just bought a few more at 18.775p I have another order in in case it goes lower too.

[rollthedice] 02/9/2016 12:22

Wide spread will put off some buyers 18-19.75

[huntie2] 02/9/2016 10:05

just topped up.....

[philby1] 02/9/2016 09:15

From S Prophets this morning;

Hello Share Squaddies. May I bring to your attention another medical outfit which has a very encouraging market to have a go at. The firm is Concepta (CPT) and it has produced something it calls MyLotus. These are clever devices which test fertility in women, as well as being an indicator of pregnancy.

It’s something to do with hormones and urine samples, but of course, the details are beyond me. The kits are not likely to be very cheap and could sell for about £250 on a commercial basis. However we know, don’t we, that people will usually stump up where their health and welfare is concerned.

There is no permission to sell MyLotus kits in the UK, or indeed Europe, but this is expected in 2017. And in China the kits have the green light and will go on sale there this year. A selling network is already in place for that.

Also, Concepta has other irons in the fire of medical pioneering. It is working on kits to diagnose stress. Though this is linked to the effects of stress on fertility, it may have a wider customer base, including men.

Stress is always hard to prove and devices to detect it would be useful. One imagines, perhaps, it could be employed to persuade cynical bosses that you really can’t work at the moment.

The City seems to quite like this company: the shares rose by about 50% last month alone. It’s an AIM member, based in York, and the market cap is about £20m.

The Chairman Adam Reynolds says it aims to become a global leader in over-the-counter fertility products. And he reckons the firm could come in early on a connected global healthcare market worth $60 billion dollars by 2020.

I know that sort of hope is easy to express, but you never know.

As we always say in the Punter’s Return.
- See more at: hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/views/23410/a-huge-market-awaits-fertility-pioneer-concepta#sthash.dE8Pju22.dpuf

[froop] 01/9/2016 19:04

happy I bought in last Thursday now. was unsure due to speculative nature of this share. at least now i can put stop loss to lock in profit whatever happens!

[luminoso] 01/9/2016 16:36

Same here, but think I have missed the boat to add under 20p, especially if the rns on China comes. very strong performance today.

[andysand] 01/9/2016 12:50

Pleased with the progress. I am waiting for a pullback to add to my position. It might never come though!

[smart_investor] 01/9/2016 12:01

Yet again a great day for Concepta share price wise. If we can stabilise above 20p for a few days I will be very happy. Then move on up from there on news of our first payment from China. Im so intrigued to know the figure we will receive on this order and any potential recurring revenue. Erik has just come back from Shanghai so guess we will hear soon.

[adnanwolf] 01/9/2016 11:34

I think the price point is about right. I don't think it will deter many people. When it comes to having a baby most people would fork out many times that multiple if needed. Average cost of IVF in the UK is about £5-6000 and in the top end clinics £10000-15000. The ovulation test kit market is big and this is a "better" product by far. The best kits cost £100+ and do not give a quantitative value for the LH and thus have many caveats for accurate use i.e regular cycle, no PCOS, no recent hormonal contraception use, no breast feeding etc etc.

marketing will be key here to promote the difference between conventional kits and this one

Adnan

[bobbyshilling] 01/9/2016 10:29

Affe, now that you put it like that I suppose at the end of the day China does have the population and this is a numbers game.

[affemoose] 01/9/2016 10:23

bobby, in my experience of broody women, the money will be found for the right product.

I understand your caution regarding price but China has a massive middle class - massive (100 million plus) - and £1k for something that will help them have baby is completely within budget for many.

The thing that stands out as a limiter to me is their stated Marketing mechanism, but I can only assume that was a starter for 10 and it will evolve/improve as soon as we actually get to market and get the supply side stuff sorted out, iron out the wrinkles etc.

My timeline on this share is still 2 years.

[bobbyshilling] 01/9/2016 10:09

The average wage in China is roughly 1/3 of that in the UK. I'm wondering how this will work out as comparatively the Chinese will be paying 3 x £250 (ish). Do they have a special deal in place with the company does anyone know, to make this cheaper for the Chinese market?

[affemoose] 01/9/2016 09:23

Morning all - back from yet another holiday - a few days in lovely Dorset.

And I see a spike before me.

Any views on what brought this on? Volume traded, low supply side, news, Broker coverage etc?

Any help appreciated.

[ramas] 31/8/2016 18:50

Highly likely is its going to capture significantly more than 1% , in the coming months the penny is going to drop what a monster this company could become

[smart_investor] 31/8/2016 15:54

See below: copied and posted my post number 26 on here from a few weeks ago. The article posted above is the first reference I have seen to the cost of the Concepta product MyLotus fertility kit. Now we can do some workings out.''The product, which will retail for £250-£300, has been developed for women who have been trying to conceive for six months or more''Lets look at China: CEO said market is approximately 4 million woman a year. If we can capture just 1% of that market that is 40,000 product sells per year.40,000 (product sells) x £250 (lower estimated product price) = £10,000,000 revenue per year.Whats our market cap right now? £12-13 million?We are ready to start selling product in China with first order in and 'payment expected soon after AIM admission'.This of course does not include the market in Europe which opens us up in 9 months to many million more women.

[ibug] 31/8/2016 13:59

However the sale of just 4,000 units brings a million GBP gross turnover in a country where about 500,000,000 people represent the middle classes; hence massive market potential in China.

[smart_investor] 31/8/2016 13:46

Thanks. Would you say the product is too cheaply priced at approx £250?I would have thought this sort of product could go for £999 with ease as nothing on the market as unique. Having a baby is priceless and many would pay big money to have the best chance. What's average money spent on IVF? £30,000?? But I suppose Concepta have done their pricing model to get ultimate revenue.Even if we can do half the '600 million' revenue a year predicted we will do very well from a current market cap of £17 million

[adnanwolf] 31/8/2016 11:16

I think it more likely to be private individuals buying this and using it before considering IVF. In the UK most couples are not referred for further fertility treatment until 12 months of regular "trying" in that time frame ovulation kits are likely to be used and in women with irregular cycles this product would be very useful. It maybe given by fertility clinics both private and NHS in certain circunstances

I can't see the NHS buying in bulk however it would likely be recommended by GPs etc

thanks

Adnan

[ibug] 31/8/2016 11:12

Here is the link for the Concepta plc website:




this page is interesting:

[smart_investor] 31/8/2016 10:51

Adananwolf - it's fantastic to have your knowledge here as a GP. Can you see the NHS buying this in bulk or is it more likely to be bought by private individuals as a possible and cheaper alternative to IVF?

[adnanwolf] 31/8/2016 10:48

I think the difference with other products like clear blue or conception kits is that this provides a quantitative measure of the LH hormone and not just a high/low indication. The benefit of this is enormous especially over a few cycles when false LH surges e.g in Polycystic ovaries makes timing the ovulation very difficult indeed.
As a GP I see many women here in the UK who use ovulation kits especially in the context of unexplained infertility so the market across the territories where this is being released is quite big.
Point of care testing is a big market but the main issue is always accuracy of the test.

Hope that helps