Coastal Eng Share Discussion Threads

[marben100] 29/5/2013 16:00

http://oilbarrel.com/news/brokers-say-coastal-energys-first-quarter-2013-results-are-mixed

"May 29, 2013

Brokers Say Coastal Energy's First Quarter 2013 Results Are "Mixed"



The story with Coastal Energy earlier this year when they reported their 2012 results was that everything was really tickety-boo. Total production for the twelve months ran at an average of 21,912 boepd against 2011 levels of 11,540 boepd . Most of this came from oil output from the Bua Ban North fields but there were also contributions from the Songkhla A block and the Bua Ban Main field. These are all offshore in the Gulf of Thailand..."

[thegreatgeraldo] 29/5/2013 14:46

dukedosh
28 May'13 - 19:56 - 730 of 733

Interestingly, 2013 guidance remains the same. Maybe this is an error given current production numbers?

..brokers seem to be assuming they won't hit guidance, but although apparently behind schedule, Malaysia & Songkhla H should (late Q3/early Q4?) chip in ITRO 12-15k bopd? Then add a load more wells at BB North & South & H2 production will look rather different from H1

[marben100] 29/5/2013 09:04

jaws6 - I think the "CEO" ticker confuses Proquote - often flags news on Coastal when there isn't any.

[dukedosh] 29/5/2013 08:58

Company are presenting at First Energy Conference this week. Hence the May presentation on the website.

[jaws6] 29/5/2013 07:38

is there any news here today ? says n on stock but can not find one yet today.
Tks

[dukedosh] 28/5/2013 19:56

New company presentation:
http://www.coastalenergy.com/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/presentations/Corporate_Presentation_May_2013.pdf

I don't see any change other than the 2 pages gone from Songkhla M and BB Terrace.

Interestingly, 2013 guidance remains the same. Maybe this is an error given current production numbers?

 Current production ~25,500 boepd, >80% offshore oil (+102% vs. 4Q11)
 33,000 boepd 2013 guidance (+50% y/y)

[dukedosh] 24/5/2013 19:03

Let's hope that happens. With 4 to 6 wells being drilled per month, we should get NRs more often.

[thegreatgeraldo] 24/5/2013 15:02

We had an ops update on 28 March & another one 14 May, which covered the explo wells & frac progress. I expect them to NR the result of the G5/50 well when they have it & when one of the rigs moves to Malaysia.

[dukedosh] 24/5/2013 14:53

Look again TGG. They only NR in batches now and call them quarterly updates. Not even the important fracs or the wildcats get a NR, not since Song A13 last October. These are well worth a NR IMHO but company policy dictates otherwise which is not doing us longs any favours with the share price volatility from the tsx traders ruling the long periods of company silence.

[thegreatgeraldo] 24/5/2013 14:38

Hi duke, the "old way" was to NR explo wells & early dev wells, this year when there's been news to report - the frac results & explo results - they've been NR'd. The drilling programme is on the co website, but these days each dev well is not really worth a release, imvh.

[dukedosh] 24/5/2013 09:39

Agreed, plenty of news and upside to come but this stone wall silence between the NRs leaves TSX traders marching the price all over the range. For me the old way was better with a NR after every event with much less share price volatility than now.

[naeclue] 23/5/2013 10:38

I think the production numbers should be rising quite steeply over the next few months. iirc Coastal expect to exit '13 at 33-35k.

The rise in April was on schedule; I think May should be another step up.

[thegreatgeraldo] 22/5/2013 17:03

AIUI, the rigs are currently at BB North & BB Main. After that one goes to Malaysia, the other north to G5/50. As time passes, we get closer to an update on last year's 3D. AGM next month & monthly production updates...... I'm looking forward to the drilling at BB South, which is currently scheduled to follow the G5/50 well.

[rivaldo] 22/5/2013 15:59

Continuing to be marked down again in Canada this afternoon.

What and when do people expect to be the next news flow?

[sander4709] 22/5/2013 12:22

No jitters here, but looks like relatively heavy selling in London this morning.

[sg31] 21/5/2013 18:26

I've just checked for jitters...couldn't find any.

[thegreatgeraldo] 21/5/2013 15:24

Morti1
21 May'13 - 14:10 - 718 of 718

Is everyone getting jittery about this share?

..No. Just you! ;-#))

[morti1] 21/5/2013 14:10

Is everyone getting jittery about this share? I still think there is massive value to come. The fundamentals are still excellent and in my opinion this is still an excellent take over target at some point. Patience is the game.

[b17nns] 21/5/2013 12:33

£13 would be nice so I can get out unscathed Morti.

[morti1] 20/5/2013 12:41

What do you estimate by end of 2013 CEO 18 pound sterling per share any thoughts ?

[eddie catflap] 20/5/2013 08:20

Mention of Coastal...

[strollingmolby] 15/5/2013 11:58

April data finally on the Thai website:

22,763 bopd (42 prod wells from 53)

[cwa1] 14/5/2013 14:19

Production of 23,163 boe/d was slightly above our 23,290 boe/d estimate

Slightly above??

[blue86] 14/5/2013 14:16

Cacaccord

COASTAL ENERGY COMPANY
CEN : TSX : C$19.26 | C$2,188.0M
Buy, C$24.00

Exploration results mixed, Q1 an inventory story; maintain BUY and C$24.00 target

Christopher Brown
Investment recommendation
Excluding inventory adjustments, Coastal's Q1 results were generally in line. At 23,163 boe/d, Q1 production was just shy of our of 23,290 boe/d estimate. As inventory lifting boosted sales by ~3,420 b/d, sales exceeded expectations and our revenue and expense estimates were correspondingly understated. On a per-barrel basis, results were generally in line.

In our view, the highlight of Coastal's press release was an oil discovery in the Bua Ban Terrace (BBT) Miocene, where the BBT A-01 well identified 52 ft of net pay with 26% porosity. Although Miocene results exceeded expectations, the company encountered only 7 feet of net pay in the Lower Oligocene, along with water and gas bearing intervals throughout the Eocene. Unrisked pre-drill recoverable estimates (P50) were 37.7 Mmbbl for the Miocene, 6.6 Mmbbl in the Upper Oligocene (nothing for the Lower Oligocene) and 93.9 million barrels in the Eocene. Coastal's Songkhla M exploration location also failed to meet minimum commercial thresholds. Despite mixed results this quarter, we expect material step changes in production in the second half of 2013 as facilities in both Malaysia and Thailand initiate a ramp-up.

Investment highlights
• Production of 23,163 boe/d was slightly above our 23,290 boe/d estimate. Quarterly results were positively impacted by an inventory lift of ~3,430 b/d, which pushed realized revenue and expenses above our estimates. However, the company reported revenue of US$105.15/bbl versus our estimate of US$106/bbl, while operating expenses of US$19.90/bbl were just above our US$19/bbl estimate.
• Coastal generated funds from operations of US$104 million, versus our US$80 million estimate. Accounting for inventory withdrawals, we estimate that the company realized an additional US$29 million in net revenues and an additional US$4 million in operating costs, for a net pre-tax benefit of US$25 million.
• Capital expenditures of US$92.8 were also above expectations. This was a result of timing on MOPU conversions and higher-than-expected drilling costs in the quarter.
• Bua Ban Terrace had mixed results with a Miocene discovery, but disappointments in the Oligocene and Eocene. This is expected to have a neutral impact on our net asset value.
• The Songkhla M exploration location failed to meet commercial thresholds.
Valuation
We estimate a 2013E NAV of C$25.20/share. Given the company's production and reserve base, we believe the current share price of C$19.26 is well supported. At current prices, Coastal is trading at 4.8x our 2013E EV/DACF estimate and provides a return to target of ~25%.

[blue86] 14/5/2013 13:18

the sell is worth about 0.5% and that's IF it was priced in, i.e. the stock was above $24.

absolutely ridiculous