Coastal Eng Share Discussion Threads

[thegreatgeraldo] 09/5/2013 01:04

According to the drilling schedule, BB Main STs are planned for after the G5/50 well

[rivaldo] 08/5/2013 22:46

Excellent close tonight in Canada.

Meanwhile, here's a new Q1 preview note from Canaccord:

https://research.canaccordgenuity.com/_layouts/researchnoteviewer.aspx?pubid=91518

And an update from Belt - here's an extract:



"News should be out shortly - by the latest early next week but could be this week. Should include results from Songhkla M, Terrace A, and current production numbers. They are also doing a sidetrack at BBM for future fracking of the eocene - with the very positive results at BBS - this has become more and more material so those initial results could be included too. Place your bets. It could get wild as we well know with CEN. Two prospect drills, possible sidetrack included and the finely tuned microscope on production numbers...never a dull moment."

Finally, an interesting post from JohnnyFocker:



And one from Oiljack:

[dukedosh] 07/5/2013 12:25

With the oil price quickly bouncing back up over $100, this reinforces the case to increase a TP not reduce.

Investec were always "low ballers" here. FE and CS are the one's with a good handle on this stock.

[cwa1] 07/5/2013 12:18

Possibly just sensitivity to oil prices(ie automatic change when oil moves up or down by X% and nothing particularly worrisome to be read in to it)?

[dukedosh] 07/5/2013 09:56

Investec cuts target price from 1407p to 1370p maintaining a hold recommendation. No further details.

IMO, either they haven't a clue about this stock or are out of position and wanting a lower price. I suspect the latter.

[dukedosh] 06/5/2013 12:19

tgg,

The TA brigade are only likely to appear on any downward correction to enlighten us all why it did, but certainly not when it will.

[cwa1] 03/5/2013 17:21

Not likely ;-)

[thegreatgeraldo] 03/5/2013 16:37

I guessed as much, I was just doing a spot of trolling in the hope that somebody might rise to the bait & make the case for TA! ;-#))

[dukedosh] 03/5/2013 16:05

Tgg,

I believe Naeclue and I were being a tad cynical towards TA as is the norm.

Of course this is a news driven stock with a very large dose of market sentiment.

[thegreatgeraldo] 03/5/2013 15:46

TA!! LOL!! Surely to act on TA currently you'd have to rely on historical price movements in some way being correlated with the geology around Songkhla-M, East Terrace A & G5/50. Call me old fashioned, but excluding external factors (a coup in Thailand, an OP &/or market collapse) those 3 wells will be the main drivers of the share price over the next 6 weeks or so.

[naeclue] 03/5/2013 08:02

We've undoubtedly just seen the full Fu Manchu beard formation (complete with small chin triangle), which unequivocally means we have to watch out for 1920s Chinese omni-villains. If we get the dreaded "Blofeld's white cat" formation next, our number is up.

Of less importantance, production for April and May should rise significantly, as well as further results from exploration drilling being expected. Anticipation of these events/positive results may have some impact. Don't let rns for these minor operational updates distract you - watch out for the cat.

[dukedosh] 02/5/2013 23:04

It's getting exciting here again with near term catalysts coming home. Late session $2 up spike in the oil price not doing us any harm either with the share price breaking C$20 and closing above it. No doubt something meaningful to the tea leaf TA readers perhaps?

[rivaldo] 02/5/2013 22:51

Up in Canada tonight - and this posting FWIW:



Management "will be in Toronto for a First Energy Conf May 28th....Should have news on BBN Terrace and Song M by then"

[rivaldo] 01/5/2013 23:37

Brilliant news, cheers dukedosh. I'm loving the comment that "this drilling campaign could be worth up to 2,689p/share"....

[dukedosh] 01/5/2013 17:05

Citigroup initiate coverage TP 1590p (C$25.00).

This from Belt on iv;

Looks like the roadshow is bearing some nice fruit. Pretty thorough report from CITI. $25 TP. See link for more further details....



Coastal Energy (CEO.L): Asian Elephants Might Be Smaller, But They Still Make An Impact

· Successful development-driven strategy can drive further growth - While much of the market focus over the last three years has been on African E&P explorers, Coastal Energy has built an impressive and valuable development-driven business offshore Thailand that has focused on smaller finds. In aggregate, these discoveries have delivered 38% CAGR reserve growth and 49% CAGR production growth since 2012, which has left the company well funded and with visible cash generation. Despite this success, the shares are currently trading close to our valuation of Coastal's existing 2P reserve base with little "option" value discounted for further reserve additions from the company's low-risk exploration and appraisal strategy. With strong funding in place and proven track record, we believe Coastal has the foundation to seek out new growth opportunities over the medium-term. We initiate with a Buy rating and price target of 1,590p (set at a 20% discount to our base case NAV of 1,988p/share).

· Low-cost flexible development model - Coastal has executed a low-cost flexible development model around its core G5/43 hub offshore Thailand at an attractive five-year finding and development cost of US$6.8/boe (versus the industry average at c.US$17-18/boe). Production should grow c.50% in 2013 provided two production units in Thailand and Malaysia can be installed on time for 3Q13. Delivery on near-term production targets remains a key risk to our Buy-thesis, in addition to disappointing exploration results and a further deterioration in the macro environment.

· Material prospect inventory - Coastal also has a prospect inventory of c.490m bbls (c.4x its existing reserve base) across its Thai acreage, which it plans to target over the next two years following the arrival of a second rig in December 2012. We include 539p/share for the firm 12-month drilling programme in our base NAV of 1,988p/share, but unrisked we believe this drilling campaign could be worth up to 2,689p/share.

· Well-funded to deliver growth and seek new opportunities - We forecast free cashflow generation of US$204m in 2013 (at US$100/bbl), which coupled with a strong balance sheet and US$200m debt facility provides Coastal with the basis to accelerate its development and exploration plans within its existing portfolio. This could also see Coastal target new opportunities in South-East Asia and possibly internationally, where it could add value through its strong exploration track record and development expertise.

[rivaldo] 01/5/2013 09:45

TGG, I'd also like to copy your post on T.M.F here as it's a useful prompter/reminder:



"CEO - News due fairly soon on the Songkhla-M well (possibly this week?) with the first BB Terrace explo well also drilling with news likely from there before the end of the month. After Songkhla-M, rig is due to move to drill the first well on the G5/50 block to the north of G5/43. "

[thegreatgeraldo] 30/4/2013 23:16

Saw the piece about the MOPUs - not clear if these are additional to the 2 needed for Malaysia & Songkhla-H, or are heading for Malaysia & Songkhla-H? I suspect the latter....

[rivaldo] 30/4/2013 23:09

Two pieces of news posted on IV tonight:

(1) CEO award a contract to convert drill rigs to MOPUs in 120-140 days - so more production a-coming:



(2) Forrest Wylie, a previous non-exec, has been reappointed to the Board as a non-exec again:

[melf] 30/4/2013 08:38

Relatively high volume in Canada yesterday with some largish trades going through.

[thegreatgeraldo] 29/4/2013 10:48

Thai production figures for March finally released, offshore production averaged 21,506bopd in March.

[iamb4ne1] 26/4/2013 15:53

Do all these 100 share trades in the afternoon suggest that an institution is buying?

Any guesses?

[melf] 24/4/2013 21:58

The latest from Belt really gets the juices flowing!



The Terrace...how big is big?

The Terrace is currently churning using the Manta Rig while the Vicksburg is drilling Songhkla M. It's the first time CEN has ever been drilling two prospects at once...a new milestone. We've covered the bases on Song M...let's now look to the Terrace prospect.

So why get excited? This initial Terrace prospect (Terrace A) is 32.7MM recoverable. The entire Terrace is 140MB recoverable. If it works - it could be bigger than BBN. Credit Suisse has this prospect unrisked at $23 - primarily eocene and miocene. The eocene historically has not been as tight as they move north and has had some higher porosity wells. The miocene turned out to be the main objective at BBN but they hit some interesting eocene there as well...even more interesting with the recent success of the eocene Frack at BBS.

But what might be most exciting about the Terrace apart from its overall size is its proximity to BBN. The image below says it all - six compartments all wedged up against BBN. It's close enough that they are drilling Terrace A from the BBN well pad. If this initial well hits, it greatly derisks the rest of the field and they will be back here very soon drilling it up. The advantage of drilling the initial well now is that if successful, they can then order the MOPU so they can attack it when the rig returns and permitting is approved.

CEN is as unique as its ever been right now. Production is gearing up to stabilize at new highs after wrapping up a round of development drilling at BBN and they are drilling 3 prospects in succession - Songhkla M, Terrace A and G5/50 (Ko Kra). I'll be pretty surprised if we don't continue to see the sp's upward movement as we draw closer to these catalysts becoming known to the market.

[rivaldo] 24/4/2013 15:08

Nice succinct post from Oiljack yesterday:



"CEN

* Sonkghla M and Bua Ban Terrace wells are drilling.

* strap on your hard hats....an easy $5 NAV (minimum) in the short term is on the drilling skids. Two exploration wells at once.

* very hard to beat CEN at these levels imo."

[melf] 23/4/2013 16:39

Yes, I noticed the 10p spread today Riv. Volume relatively high on AIM today as well.

[rivaldo] 23/4/2013 15:53

Thx for the useful posts above - and encouraging to see a tiny 10p spread at present by CEO's standards.