Coastal Eng Share Discussion Threads

[loglorry1] 23/4/2013 13:26

The terms for the Malaysian production are not nearly as good since it is more of a PSA structure so I'd say the 7.5K/bpd won't have the same earnings quality but nice nonetheless. I doubt the current market will see the corollory of that though if Malaysian production misses targets as it will probably view it as a miss on guidance for overall production.

In any case in the current funding market the mid-cap cashflow producers seems to be the best space to be in the O&G sector right now.

Log

[thegreatgeraldo] 23/4/2013 13:11

Fair enough, but although there may have been some slippage in original plans due to delayed availability of the MOPU, originally they were looking at H2 Malaysian production chipping in around 7500bopd.

[marben100] 23/4/2013 13:06

...but that's 3-4mbopd WITHIN A COUPLE OF MONTHS - i.e. right at the start of Q3 (couple of months might be a bit optimistic), expect further Malaysianproduction increases later in Q3 as drilling proceeds (Malaysia drilling expected to take 3 months).

Overall, outlook for production growth looks good, with recent BBN drilling coming onstream, then BB Main Fracs, in parallel with Malaysia and then more BBS appraisal wells.

Though I have a large Coastal position (by my standards), I'll feel more comfortable when I see the results of all that drilling coming through in the numbers. I imagine the market will too. :0)

[thegreatgeraldo] 23/4/2013 12:34

"next for the Manta rig before it heads for Malaysia (if MOPU arrives) where they anticipate adding an additional 3000-4000bopd within a couple of months."

I'm not convinced about this..... company guidance for 2013 is,

2013 production expected to average 33,000

27,000 boepd offshore Thailand, 2,300 onshore Thailand, 3,700 boepd Malaysia (3Q commencement)

....which points to Malaysia chipping in 7/8k boepd.

[melf] 23/4/2013 09:05

For anyone who doesn't read the IV thread, here is the latest from Belt answering a post re A10:



This well has been on workover but should be brought on-line in the next few weeks. When it settles on pump I would expect it to flow at approximately 1500-2000bopd. They have tied in another HZ well at BBN and are finishing up the latest one that will be tied in shortly. On the production treadmill - if you add all of these wells together to the 25,500bopd (including onshore) from their latest presentation:

Songkla A 1500-2000bopd
BBN HZ 1 - 2000bopd
BBN HZ 2 - 2000bopd

We should see them start to push up against that 33,000bopd average very shortly that they got behind schedule with weather and rig issues in Q1. I would expect at some time in May full company production will exceed 30,000bopd and that will be the new baseline going forward. These latest HZ wells have taken longer to drill but the new packers will provide more consistency with production going forward. This march up to 30,000bopd has taken some time but one can anticipate that with the incremental production adds in the last few months it should be sustainable going forward. The Terrace (33MB recoverable) is next for the Manta rig before it heads for Malaysia (if MOPU arrives) where they anticipate adding an additional 3000-4000bopd within a couple of months. The Vicksburg rig that is currently at Songhkla M should be mobilized shortly to the G5/50 prospect targeting 24MB recoverable.

Lots of interesting near term catalysts remain on this story. If the macro cooperates and with a little luck with the drill bit + cracking through 30,000bopd - the march to new all time highs could very well be close at hand.

[rivaldo] 22/4/2013 23:30

Nicely up in Canada tonight, so hopefully a good reaction here tomorrow.

[par555] 19/4/2013 08:10

Up 6.4% overnight in Toronto

[melody9999] 19/4/2013 00:09

Make buy decisions based on fundamentals and outlook. Time buy decisions based on charts.

[dukedosh] 18/4/2013 14:56

That looks a great entry to me. If only I had more dry powder.

[gargoyle2] 18/4/2013 13:38

I agree that makes more sense, dukedosh, but the fact is that charts can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If there's strong support at a certain point, then buyers do tend to appear and reinforce the idea that 'it's the chart that done it'. In the case of CEO, I would buy on the facts, rather than on the chart. (In fact, I did. That's my 1500 at 1088 at 11:39.)

[dukedosh] 18/4/2013 13:23

There's a double M on the 2 year chart. This means a late lunch at McDonalds, no?
If only the market paid as much attention to facts rather than rear view clap trap charting bullsh1t. It all reappears out of the woodwork AFTER the drops and rises but NEVER before. Go figure?

[gargoyle2] 18/4/2013 11:05

I'm no chartist, but there does seem to be good support at this level from around October last year. On October 3, it went as low as 1045, so that arguably provides the support imo. If we drop below that though, we could be heading to the mid-900s imo.

[naeclue] 18/4/2013 09:10

See posts 634 and 635

[algomas] 18/4/2013 08:39

does anyone have any news from the presentation?

[dukedosh] 17/4/2013 20:33

Too right dahhad. I also bought more at 1236p. If I didn't think this a buy, I would have sold at 1400p. There was definitely a strong buy case at 1400p with great fundamentals, so what do you think I would say about this is at 1050p with a 2nd rig in theatre, a brand new oil discovery, successful fracs since and not to mention the new 3D?

Ok, so there's blood on the streets, so to speak, and investors are getting spooked out as failure and success is hammered in equal proportions by Mr Market. So I ask. All of a sudden the world doesn't need oil any more? Maybe there's a new never ending discovery? China must be shrinking? OPEC doesn't need the money any more? No, I don't think so either, so the oil price WILL bounce back and then some. It must!

Thankfully I can wait. I'm not leveraged or playing on margin so in the meantime, I'm hanging in there for my £25 a share, that's £ not $.

Good luck.

[dahhad] 17/4/2013 16:25

Are you really making the case for this being a buying opportunity? I am not long in and paid 12.43 per share for the privilege! I also bought Carclo and Dialight at the same time!!

[ricky46] 17/4/2013 16:24

I reckon your right Duke..

This same thing happens every year, then things turn round later on in year... Still think I'll get to my £20 target over the next few years.

[dukedosh] 17/4/2013 16:11

If it is then share prices are the least of our worries.

I just reckon May might have come early this year.

[ricky46] 17/4/2013 16:02

Duke...Is the world ending???
This price is stupid.

[dukedosh] 17/4/2013 15:55

It's all down to oil price. It's dropped off the cliff but unlikely to stay down for long.

Bloomberg Arabian Gulf Dubai Fateh Crude Oil Spot Price
PGCRDUBA:US 97.60 -0.43 -0.44%

Coastal presenting today at CIBC, next week at HK Oil Council. This share price drop gives new investors their entry.

[morti1] 17/4/2013 15:43

after the recent drop I was really worried but then came a very good statement and the price rose solidly again. Again a few weeks later we are seeing right now another drop. Not concerned this time round. The financial statements are very positive. Nothing to worry about. Don't worry about the share price always go with the financial statement.

[dahhad] 17/4/2013 15:21

Disaster! Why so severe falls? Any ideas?

[ricky46] 16/4/2013 17:07

This is price is comical again over in Canada

[ryandj2222] 16/4/2013 14:50

I think we are off up again today!