Coastal Eng Share Discussion Threads

[ricky46] 25/3/2013 16:30

My own view is that the fraccs have not been successfull

[ricky46] 25/3/2013 16:28

This is some major tree shake..... so what if production is going to be lower than expected still got all them targets to drill..
Buy on fear sell on greed... time to load up never thought I would buy more of these at 11 quid..

[melf] 25/3/2013 16:16

It would be very annoying if we discover the recent plunge is down to leaky info.

[dukedosh] 20/3/2013 14:08

This just now courtesy of belt on iv.

As CEN gets kicked to the curb...I continued to plug my nose and buy more yesterday. Am I a fool? Maybe. Maybe not. I'm buying CEN in the $18.50-60 range because I find it really hard to find a better risk/reward buy out there right now. The share price has not been in this range for months. The company is cash flow positive, selling a minimum monthly average of 20K bopd of $108 Brent (likely with some wells down during this period) and have 150MB in reserves. They tripled reserves in the last year and the new 3D seismic has identified a large number of new and exciting prospects that didn't exist before. For the first time, it has two rigs going - exploring and developing and closed a number of times above $22 one month ago hitting a new high of $23.10. We were in a news lull then too - unless somebody knows something significant we don't know, it sure seems like a buy down at these lately lagging prices.

We all know CEN can still have big swings. It can move on very light volume which gives the institutions and market makers the opportunity to fish out nervous retailers shares. This is especially true in a volatile and uncertain market, with news delays and many folks using margin to hold additional shares. Drilling of the Songhkla M well is underway and news is a little over a week away. This is likely their last chance to try and get shares on the cheap - so I will buy. My position in CEN hasn't been this overweight in a long time. $23 didn't cut it for Pertamina a few months ago...would management really push that away if they didn't believe they have the goods to get quite a bit higher by continuing to execute their plan? The main shareholder is 89 years old and would have stood to net close to a billion dollars on the deal...you would think at that age the guy would want the cash unless he believed the short term horizon continued to look pretty interesting. We've been through this before, we'll be through it again. It's frustrating but can create opportunity if you're on the right side of the trade...time will tell.

Post Pertamina fallout of deal: Said Mr. Bartley, "We are always evaluating our strategic alternatives, and we will continue to do so, but we will not undertake any transaction unless we believe it will deliver more value than our highly successful current strategy of organic growth."

[morti1] 20/3/2013 13:05

Having said all this I don't see any major selling in the uk. Most shareholders are clearly sitting still. I still like the naked trader see 18 -20 pound per share. It is just a strange dynamic right now.

[diabhal] 20/3/2013 12:53

Good points. And the strong fundamentals are why I'm holding but also why I find this downtrend a puzzler. I'd just like to know what investors in Canada are thinking about to keep pushing it down. To take $4 off the high is pretty impatient.

[dukedosh] 20/3/2013 12:40

I agree Rivaldo. Perhaps some should re-read First Energy's notes to regain confidence in their stock. Nothing has changed from that as far as I can see and based on that, this should be a great year for CEO.

[rivaldo] 20/3/2013 12:27

Amazing that people really have such short attention spans and pay so little attention to the fundamentals.

Relax and wait for the next news release. North American investors are news junkies and are impatient as CEO grows up and issues less news, as befits its size and status now.

Not long ago CEO were rejecting a bid at from memory $23 - that's around 1500p in today's money. Just a little clue.

Run your winners. If anyone doubts it, take a look at the charts of my investments in CEO, LOQ, GKP, CAR, FSJ and others over the years.

[morti1] 20/3/2013 11:16

My only salvation right now is in the fact that traditionally between February and mid march the stock market aside from 1 year has always had major hits. Maybe this year is no different from the norm. I still believe that ceo will probably get a bid at some point this year and this is the only thing right now really reinforcing my confidence in CEO.

[morti1] 20/3/2013 11:05

Right now I see stability around the 12 pound mark based on my interpretation of the charts. If the price drops below there around 1185, I think I am out. My attitude has always being take the loss because there is always another stock another day.

[melf] 20/3/2013 09:46

Still no RNS on the 121,900 shares traded on 15th March.

[diabhal] 20/3/2013 09:41

Wondering the same thing Morti. I can't get a clear idea on what's happening. I'm assuming next update is likely to be March 29th?

Big sell off in Canada yesterday - which you could blame on Cyprus but it didn't rally towards the end like other stocks. Very puzzled as to why there's such concerted selling going on.

[morti1] 20/3/2013 09:24

Ok share price dropping here. Very surprised in a company with so much growth potential. Is it time to sell? Any thoughts

[thegreatgeraldo] 18/3/2013 11:51

marben100
16 Mar'13 - 10:41 - 492 of 495

Have to say, however, that it's a bit disappointing to see no significant increase in production from a year ago in the DMF figures. Was expecting more by now, with the extra wells & MOPU.

..Two points there - I'm not sure the Miocene wells at BB South have been completed, the fraccing work may have delayed that. Also not clear what's happening with the new dev wells at BB North - they may complete each well as it's drilled, or more likely, I'd have thought, complete them after drilling is finished. Also, I'm not sure if the dev wells are all at one platform or whether new wells will be added to both platforms. If the latter, drill 4 wells, complete, move rig to next platform & repeat?

[algomas] 18/3/2013 09:26

all sells this morning?

[dukedosh] 16/3/2013 20:17

We're at 23k now (onshore + offshore) which is the true average figure over the whole month. Obviously, we are producing at peak considerably more than that but the shut ins (weather delays, work overs, fraccing, testing and tie ins) will always reduce the daily average over the course of the month.

I wouldn't mind betting that we are peaking at over 30k boepd right now. This will show up in the numbers when the rigs turn to exploration and the weather settles.

JMO, FWIW.

[stansmith3] 16/3/2013 14:13

DD, what I meant to say is that I think the the results of the last few months will have been very mixed, I think coastal keep putting the news back to give them more chance to add something of real value to it. Marben, yeah the DMF figures are down on what Randy claimed they were averaging not so long ago, 24k iirc.I can only guess the development work is mostly making up for declines?Very happy to hold, and added to my armpits position on the expectation that $ 19 is just a temporary slip.Cheers.

[marben100] 16/3/2013 10:41

Am happy to hold at the current price level (having top-sliced extensively along the way), and wait for news. Have to say, however, that it's a bit disappointing to see no significant increase in production from a year ago in the DMF figures. Was expecting more by now, with the extra wells & MOPU.

[dukedosh] 15/3/2013 22:12

Company actually told us a while back that news reporting would change to something less regular and here we are. As this company grows from a minor to a major, so does it's news reporting. So it looks like we're going to get quarterly updates or what have you, similar to most other majors. Once the market gets used to it, perhaps some of volatility will smooth out. If so, then not a bad thing for us longs.

JMHO, FWIW.

[stansmith3] 15/3/2013 21:57

Looking forward to the news like everyone else, can't see it being anything other than very mixed. Don't buy any of the reasons suggested on iv.Would be delighted to be wrong obviously.

[dukedosh] 15/3/2013 16:03

Probably an insider. If so, we'll hear about it soon.

[melf] 15/3/2013 15:44

121,900 share trade just reported in Canada. Not sure if it's a buy or sell, although reported as a sell.

[melf] 15/3/2013 15:13

Another offering from Belt on IV, partly answering some nevervous punters on that BB.



Whoa Nellie - sounds like some real labour pains going on. I was not suggesting that the lack of news flow isn't frustrating...I said that it is as is the current share price. What I was alluding to was that people may think that it means that something has gone terribly wrong. The company has been drilling 'development wells' for the most part...at Songhkla A and Bua Ban North B. We have seen their success rate to date on this. They may not feel that development wells warrant a news update. Or there may be another reason that news has been delayed. I do not know.

If Belt, for one, were just pulling that out of his back pocket, then we've got problems....

PH - I've been posting on this board for 3 years. I think my track record and willingness to share my understanding with the every day investor speaks for itself. If I say I believe that news will be coming at a certain time it is because I've been told this. But management reserves the right to change their minds week to week for a myriad of reasons. First Energy has gotten the timing wrong too. Management has changed their minds before and will again. News from a company who is drilling can be a moving target. Lots of different things influence this. I don't think I was lied to or FE was lied to - at that point they expected to release news around that time but something changed their plan. If people are buying based on me saying that I expect news next week then they should be careful...not because I am lying but because I am only communicating my best understanding of when news should be and that can change. More often than not it is correct but sometimes it isn't. I do not have the story as to why news got delayed. Clearly folks are mad but CEN has delivered the goods time and time again since I've been in this story. They have a bunch of cash, a prolific basin with production and big prospects to boot. News will come when news comes. Remember when they drilled BBN - they were trying to delinate the size of the field. A lot of these wells were not meant to be production wells but water injectors that found oil. Now they know what they've got so their developing the field properly. They have two rigs going for the first time ever. I'm ok with giving them some time.

Anyhow - let's move on and keep our eyes on the prize. If you don't like the delay on news you can sell. I'm sticking as things could be getting interesting yet again. CEN has not drilled a potentially significant exploration prospect in some time. Songhkla M is a wildcat exploration well in a block they have never touched. It is listed as 46MB STOOIP but as we saw with BBN from initial projections it has the possibility of being bigger if they have a discovery. From the seismic BBN was not a huge prospect. They have never drilled in this region of Songhkla M - SE part of the basin. The geologists like what they see on the new maps. This is where my focus is. It has two decent shots - Miocene and Oligocene...maybe both. A new discovery means new reserves and new production.

Anyhow - that's it for my posting on the topic of delayed news. I understand the frustration on news delays. I will now sit back and watch.