Coastal Eng Share Discussion Threads

[marben100] 15/4/2013 23:26

Hi Dukedosh,

Thanks.

"After-tax 2P NPV10 = $2,713m (+215m - how does THAT work?)"

The Feb figure was based on RPS's March 2012 Report, whereas the April figure is based on the Dec 2012 report. As 9 months passes and increased production/cashflow gets nearer, the 10% discount unrolls (despite lower total reserves) & hence NPV increases.

Cheers,

Mark

[dukedosh] 15/4/2013 22:05

Updates from the last presentation. Highlights courtesy of public heel on iv:

Page 3 - Offshore production 23,000 (+500)
Onshore production 2,500 boe (+500)
2P = 144.8mm (-5.3mm)
After-tax 2P NPV10 = $2,713m (+215m - how does THAT work?)
Shares fd = 118.3m (+2.1m)
Cash = $55m (-$15m)

Page 4 - "0.7m acres in Gulf of Thailand; Malaysian RSC covering 3 fields"
[in February, that was 1.4m acres.... what happened to half of it?]
Five-year F&D costs = $6.81/boe including facilities capex (+$2.46/boe ???)
"30% of shares owned by management and founding shareholders" [!!!]

Page 5 - BBS - "Pilot fracking program was successful and two frac wells are onstream" [!!]

Page 8 - "Shares at discount" chart - Claims NAV of $23.16/share
[my note: How the HELL does that jibe with $2,713m after-tax NPV10?? (page 3)]

Page 10 (schedule) - Now calls BB Main workover wells (June-July) "sidetrack fracs"
BBS appraisal drilling switched to Vicksburg and increased from 5 to 8 wells

Page 14 - prospective recoverable to be tested in 2013
Song M - 13mm (Q2)
BB Terrace A - 33mm (Q2)
G5/50 - 24mm (Q2)
BB Terrace - 105mm (H2)

Page 15 - no change to Prospective Recoverable chart [!!!]
in keeping with new treat'em-like-mushrooms policy

Page 19 - Fracturing Program
Additional recoverable assuming 10% recovery:
Songkhla - 3.3mm
BBN - 3.5mm
BBS - 23.2mm


Links to compare the presentations:

[dukedosh] 15/4/2013 17:54

New presentation:

Courtesy of Belt on iv

Some Initial Highlights:

Current Production: 25,500bopd - still have more HZ wells at BBN to hook up and drill.

They will be drilling Terrace A - 32.7MB recoverable in Q2....should spud within a few weeks. Along with Songhkla M (currently drilling) and G5/50 - exposure to 70MB recoverable in Q2. In addition they will be chasing a further 230MB recoverable from the other Terrace prospects, BBN and BBS in H2. So approximately 300MB recoverable explosure through till the end of the year - not inclusive of Songhkla H, Malaysia or Benjarong.

Eocene Frack has a continued stabilization rate of 1,450bopd after 1 month of flowing. This continues to confirm the economics of the Frack program for the eocene. As they go north the eocene has been better - not as tight. The Terrace A drill in the next few weeks will be interesting as eocene is primary objective.

Some thoughts at first blush. Market is getting hammered today and CEN is no exception but quality will continue to win over the long term. Growing Production, growing reserves and one rig back to exclusively exploring for new fields.

[blue86] 15/4/2013 16:31

"Can't think of any good reason for it apart from the general down day overall."

Canadian retail punters

[dukedosh] 15/4/2013 16:27

Company presenting in HK on Weds which might bring us a new presentation also imminently due Thai DMF March production numbers.

Well oversold IMO so bought more this afternoon at 1141.

[melf] 15/4/2013 15:43

Down on very low volumes across the pond......guess the drop is mainly due to the oil price.

[ryandj2222] 15/4/2013 15:08

And on the plus side always the chance to buy a few more a bit cheaper!

[ryandj2222] 15/4/2013 15:06

This share does tend to go up and down in pretty big moves, I think it is because it isn't that widely traded and the spreads are generally quite large.

[algomas] 15/4/2013 14:59

dont panic!!

[ryandj2222] 15/4/2013 14:58

Although it does seem to be a lot of selling going on today! Can't think of any good reason for it apart from the general down day overall.

[ryandj2222] 15/4/2013 14:49

Never go up in a straight line these shares!

[loglorry1] 15/4/2013 14:49

Weak Brent price and general sector weakness I assume.

Log

[algomas] 15/4/2013 14:39

down 7.3% why?

[rivaldo] 12/4/2013 13:34

You and me both :o)) Should be at 1250p at $1.56.

[kfr20] 12/4/2013 12:29

I am suprised the price hasn't been marked up after last night's rise in Canada.

[rivaldo] 11/4/2013 23:09

Excellent finish in Canada should see another 30p on the price tomorrow?

Even without the Songkhla M drilling result, Q1 results are only 7 weeks away on May 30th according to this poster:

[dukedosh] 11/4/2013 21:37

I hope you're right. No news makes for share price weakness. Not good for retail nerves.

[thegreatgeraldo] 11/4/2013 19:34

I'd guess they will - the previous 3 months had no explo wells & it's pointless reporting each & every dev well.

[dukedosh] 11/4/2013 19:16

.....that's if they report it. Reckon quarterly updates might be all we get if the last NR is anything to go by.

[thegreatgeraldo] 11/4/2013 19:10

End of next week/week after should see a result from the Songkhla M well...

[nb1979] 11/4/2013 18:46

Can anyone advise when the next update from CEO is due please? Thanks

[luminoso] 10/4/2013 12:45

Thanks Rivaldo. Nice article.

[rivaldo] 10/4/2013 11:37

New article on Oilbarrel - I didn't quite manage 123p, but 250p will have to do :o))



"April 08, 2013

Coastal Energy's Results For 2012 Show Sparkling Growth In Output, Cash Flow And Earnings

Coastal Energy's results for year ending December 31 2012 are more or less in line with expectations; rather better in fact. But they do, for all that, represent a stellar performance. Total company production increase to 21,373 boepd in the fourth quarter of 2012 from 14,508 boepd in the same period in 2011. The bulk of the output came from the Bua Ban North fields, but there were also contributions from the Songkhla A block and the Bua Ban Main field. These are all offshore in the Gulf of Thailand.

Coastal's gas is onshore, in fields in the north east of Thailand. Here production for the fourth quarter of 2012 was 2,419 boepd compared to 1,122boepd in 2011. Total company production for the full year 2012 increased to 21,912 boepd, a 90 per cent increase from 2011 levels of 11,540 boepd. Analysts had been predicting 20,000 boepd or a little under for 2012.

With the increased production and strong oil and gas prices, it is little wonder that the financials were also sparkling. EBITDAX for the year of 2012 was US$494.9 million, 145 per cent higher than the US$201.7 million recorded in 2011. The company reported fully diluted earnings per share (EPS) of US$ 1.92, a 368 per cent increase from the 2011 fully diluted EPS of US$0.41. Cash flow per share (CFPS) was US$3.27 fully diluted, a 101 per cent rise from the 2011 fully diluted CFPS of US$1.63.

Two thousand and twelve was, as CEO Randy Bartley pointed out, the fourth year in a row of record production and cash flow. The question now is where the company goes from here. The dual listed group-- it is quoted on Canada's TSX and London AIM-- has expanded its horizons by signing a contract to develop a cluster of three oil fields offshore Malaysia. But Thailand will continue to be the focus for Coastal for the foreseeable future.

It is not as if the company's assets there are played out. Along with the financial results Coastal has given a reserves update based on a CPR prepared by RPS Energy. It reports that total proved (1P) reserves are up nine per cent at 76.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) as at December 31 2012 compared to 69.9 mmboe at December 31 2011. Proved and probable (2P) reserves are 40 per cent higher at 144.3 mmboe against 102.9 mmboe. Proved, probable and possible (3P) reserves are up to 196.1 mmboe against 110.0 mmboe. Clearly there is further value to be extracted from Thailand yet.

In an operations update for 2013 also attached to the financial results Bartley says "Two thousand and thirteen is poised to be another solid year for Coastal." In fact it looks as growth is already being achieved. In March the company's offshore production rate was 23,000 bopd making total company production, including onshore gas, 25,500 bopd.

Bartley says that the company has added a second drilling rig so that the group can continue its development programmes on its existing fields while continuing to explore the prolific Songkhla Basin. Four development wells have been drilled on the major producing Bua Ban North B. Two high-impact exploration prospects, the Bua Ban Terrace and Benjarong South are expected to be tested in the second half of 2013. The company is also excited by the results of the pilot hydraulic fracturing programme at Bua Ban South. Both wells have tested at stabilised production rates.

It is too early to tell whether 2013 will be another year of spectacular growth or whether the company has achieved critical mass and will now grow incrementally or perhaps even be taken over. What is clear is that Coastal has been one of the great success stories of the small cap sector, if you can still call a company with a market cap of around £1.4bn a small cap company. It is now the fourth largest company on AIM. Anyone investing in Coastal seven years ago could have bought shares at 123p. If they stayed in for the ride, they would now be holding shares worth £1257p, a tenfold increase. Very nice."

[rivaldo] 09/4/2013 23:15

Good finish in Canada. According to Belt CEO are going out on the road to tell their story - I presume he means presentations, so hopefully we should get fresh interest:



"CEN perking up a bit here today. They are heading out on the road to tell their story. Songhkla M has spudded. BBNB rig is churning...."

[ryandj2222] 09/4/2013 16:58

I think you might be right par555