Coastal Eng Share Discussion Threads

[dukedosh] 07/2/2013 21:10

Link to "Bloomberg Arabian Gulf Dubai Fateh Crude Oil Spot Price" added to the top header.

If you know a link to a working price chart for this then please let me know and I'll put it up in the header.

[dukedosh] 07/2/2013 14:13

Thanks TGG, I indeed left out the word "average".

[thegreatgeraldo] 07/2/2013 14:09

dukedosh
7 Feb'13 - 13:50 - 358 of 358 0 0

Company is aiming to exit 13 with 33k boepd. Some say this is a conservative number. I hope so too!

...Have another look... the guidance of 33k boepd is the average for the year, so the exit rate should be rather higher ;-#))

[dukedosh] 07/2/2013 13:50

Doug,

For values I simply look for (in order of relevance to me) core NAV to sp, EV/DACF and for vanity, $ per flowing bbl compared to sector.

Dubai Fateh has normally in the past traded at a premium to Brent. Looks like it's at a discount if that Bloomberg price is correct.

Company quoted figures are for forward guidance which are obviously different to the rear view official DMF published figures.

Company is aiming to exit 13 with 33k boepd. Some say this is a conservative number. I hope so too!

polyps,

SRB is extremely complicated but remember that all capex and expenses are set off against SRB. Show me a massive SRB bill and I'll show you some amazing netbacks and ROI.

The Thai tax regime is one the most favourable in the world. Far better than the usual PSCs we see in the far east.

Without opening up the whole dividend debate again which has been done to death all over these bbs on every producing oil stock, but I will say that I prefer a divi to a buy back. I believe that this company should only declare a divi after it has matured and developed their properties into throwing off more cash than they know what to do with. Timeline wise, after the 3rd rig arrival in theatre might be good, who knows?

[douglasallen] 07/2/2013 12:38

good info on the prospects.

looks like they should nail at least another 100mmboe in reserves. The fact the area has tight sands is not great as it makes me think of Boweleven and numerous others who have encounteres this problem and not been able to proceed.

I was under the impression that the oil market into which Coastal sold its production sold at a premium to Brent, or do they sell at Dubai Fateh prices?

Also what are the ultimate targets for Coastal's production rates?? I have seen an average of 33k bopd quoted by the company for 2013, but will there be production growth above these levels moving forward. What are they targeting for peak production?

Thanks.

[rivaldo] 07/2/2013 12:04

Good post from amstocks82 as usual:

[douglasallen] 07/2/2013 10:50

Cheers duke, thanks for all the information. You clearly know coastal inside out.

What method do you use to value Coastal and how undervalued do you think CEO is still?

Thanks

[polyps] 07/2/2013 10:26

Check out the SRB in appendix, over 55% tax but this is dependent on oil price so EBITDA great but high windfall tax.

Should they pay a dividend of $1 CAD once cash starts building to act as a stopper and bring in a new shareholder type for the few that remain out of the tightly held main shareholders?

This is probably dependent on US tax laws and Oscars estate planning?

[dukedosh] 07/2/2013 09:44

This rising oil price of late is quietly filling the coffers.

Dubai Fateh Crude Oil Spot Price
PGCRDUBA:US 111.69 +0.56 +0.50%

Check out slide 8 of the Feb 13 presentation. At this oil price EBITAX is a staggering circa $800.0mm. That's circa $100mm more than with a $100 bbl oil price. That's a windfall and then some!

[dukedosh] 07/2/2013 09:14

Those are company numbers. Last interim CPR was March 2012 so next one might not be far away.

Right from the start, Coastal has always been a value play. The Market has rarely to never traded Coastal at a premium to NAV unlike some other over hyped, higher risk stocks.

[douglasallen] 07/2/2013 00:22

Is that increase in p50 recoverable, the same as a p2 upgrade? And is that confirmed or the companies figures.

I do not doubt the company they know how to execute, but I know the market will be unwilling to attribute value if not confirmed.

Cheers

[dukedosh] 06/2/2013 23:10

....How long before we tender for the 3rd rig I wonder.

[dukedosh] 06/2/2013 23:08

Cause of these delays are unknown to us. Maybe poor weather during January storms? We normally experience shut ins during heavy storms so this is plausible, perhaps?

What has largely gone unnoticed and under the radar is the substantial and significant STOOIP P50 increase from 2003.5 to 2235.2 mmboe. P50 Recoverable increase from 453.2 to 486.8 mmboe. Interestingly, this is largely due to the increase at BB Terrace and Benjarong. This increase alone should move the share price upwards.

There's so much acreage here. This new 3D is definitely the key to unlock it's potential. Exciting times or what?

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/2/2013 23:00

Maybe the muppets are focusing on today's presentation being released instead of an ops update? It strikes me that the pres is saying there's nothing earth shattering to say via an official release -presumably they've drilled 2, maybe 3, dev wells on BB North, the company seems to be still working on the fraccing, they've drilled a couple of injectors on Songkhla & are currently drilling the first of 2 dev wells at Songkhla. In the meantime, the 3D carried out last year has thrown up loads of new potential. So far, the company has only scratched the surface (Miocene) of their acreage.

[douglasallen] 06/2/2013 22:39

So overall good, or do the delays weigh mre on the release and make it negative?

[ricky46] 06/2/2013 22:12

Thanks dukedosh was trying to get this info myself

[dukedosh] 06/2/2013 21:31

Compare the presentations here:

[dukedosh] 06/2/2013 21:24

BBS fraccing continuing into Feb probably might explain the share price drop late in TSX session. However, with even more fraccing planned into this new presentation, I can't see how the delay into Feb could be materially detrimental so this share price weakness could be seen as a buying opportunity.

The 3D has highlighted a huge amount of new leads and targets. Expect this drill schedule to change as data is analysed. Some new plays are bound to come to the fore.

All looks good and great to see this GoT success story unfold piece by piece.

[t1tch] 06/2/2013 21:23

PWC merger looks like it's been there a while, I guess they have been a bit idle creating their docs. Google even has a load of hits for recent releases.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4ADRA_enGB491GB491&q=coastal+pwc+merger

[dukedosh] 06/2/2013 21:12

Here's the changes from the Dec 12 presentation, coursey of Public Heel from iv:

by

Public_Heel


February presentation changes from December
Page 3 - Shares up to 113.6m from 113.0m
Cash up from $37.5m to $70m

Page 4 - Two rigs running entire year - 60% development and 40% exploration
Malaysia first oil 2013H2

Page 9 - Malaysia first oil - July

Page 10 (rig schedule): 2 BBS appraisal wells dropped and 2 postponed until mid-year
G5/50 well slipped from March to April
Songkhla A16, A12ST, "Eocene' and "Development" added in Jan/Feb
BBS Fracking continued into February

Page 13 - 3D being processed (for entire basin + G5/50)
initial data quality is excellent + new leads have been produced
Established plays that offer further upside: Miocene grabens, Lower Oligocene and Eocene
Dong Mun expected to begin production in 2015

Page 14 - Unrisked recoverable (P50) for Bua Ban Terrace inceased from 103.4mm to 138.2mm
All other prospects stayed the same

Page 19 - BBS Development Plan: two platforms (C & G), two horizontal wells and nine deviated

Page 20-21: detail on BBN and BBM

Page 22: Songkhla H: 3 producers and one injector to be drilled for 14mm STOOIP (???)

Page 23: Dong Mun: 10mm boe 2C and 18mm boe prospective
approvals in 2013 and first gas end-2014

Pages 24-38: New detail on BB Terrace, Songkhla N (Benjarong), M and L... plus comparisons of new and old 3D

[t1tch] 06/2/2013 21:06

PWC merger is hidden away in the doc properties title ;-)

Hmmm

[blue86] 06/2/2013 20:49

Weird that the tab name for the new pres link is "PWC merger" on my ipad.

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/2/2013 20:41

Strangely quiet on here..... nobody have any thoughts on the new pres?

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/2/2013 19:12

I haven't studied it yet, there's a stack of new stuff been added. I don't get excited.... Wooohoooo! .. oops...

[rivaldo] 06/2/2013 18:52

Cheers TGG - what do you and the other oilie experts here make of it? I note from your post on T.M.F you seem quite excited? :o))