Cml Microsystems Share Discussion Threads

[bamboo2] 01/6/2021 19:07

bones, Interesting that the breakaway gap does now have some fundamental news to give it a reason for being. A Breakaway gap is the kind that often takes a long time to fill, sometimes never filling, if the market continues to accept the validity of the story that caused it. They are often found at the start of uptrend.

We'll have to wait and see how this one performs.

The breakout was confirmed, but only by a whisker.

There are nine trading days to the update.

Post edited for clarity!

[bones] 01/6/2021 11:54

“...In addition, given the Company's anticipated growth and income stream (from dividends), being admitted to trading on AIM may also assist in diversifying the Company's shareholder base...”

I very much like the sound of that statement, hopefully all part of the company’s intention to engage more with their audience and get active.

[bones] 01/6/2021 11:35

Company moving its quote to AIM from main market to help liquidity and give it flexibility, etc, as well as improve the tax benefits for shareholders.

Seems fair to me. Sounds like they have plans afoot to use their cash pile.

[bones] 01/6/2021 10:59

Thanks bamboo2.

[bamboo2] 01/6/2021 10:41

Hi bones, I don't allow for the 50p distribution in the chart view.

390 and 440 as historical resistance are a coincidence.

The target price calculation is based on a confirmed Inverse head and shoulders. We need to get to the end of the day 372 or above for confirmation as I am working on the daily scale.

Current quotes available.
Buy 1500 at 389
Sell 4000 at 372.655

edit, Do note that this is thinly traded at the moment, so the chart view is limited by the lack of regular volume. I have been trying to build a position, but the stock availability seems very limited.

[bones] 01/6/2021 10:17

I’m interested bamboo in that you mention the 440 recent high which was of course before the company repaid 50p capital so, in effect, the high becomes 390 ex-cap. Are you saying the chart should not be adjusted for this and that the investor psychology focuses on the bare number, ie, 440?

I’m just curious about that from a TA viewpoint and keen to learn the thinking.

[bamboo2] 01/6/2021 08:43

Gap up this morning.
Currently looks like a no news breakaway, I wonder if we may see a tip, or similar emerge?

From a chart pov, eod close above 372 confirms a breakout, and target price around the 12/1/21 high at 440.

Historical resistance 390 then 440

No autoquotes to buy, order only at present.

gla

[bamboo2] 24/5/2021 07:52

No trades last week. No buys or sells.
I am waiting for a 4/5/2021 gap fill 336-344

Gla

[bones] 13/5/2021 18:52

Given the current dislocations in the semiconductor supply chains that are playing havoc with downstream demand for chips (witness the motor trade’s suspension of manufacturing and. even Apple complaining that it can’t source enough).

I wonder if CML (which I understand is further upstream with its R&D specialisms so being a kind of raw material supplier itself as well as selling components for certain chip products of its customers) are contemplating whether to add some upstream verticals using their cash?

As CML must depend in some part on third parties supplying certain raw materials and outsourced manufacturing processes, which could be an auction if there is a dogfight to obtain these goods and services, might there be some benefit in taking some of these processes in-house? That would bring some element of dependability to CML’s own supplies as well as add big value by no longer having to share the gross profit previously enjoyed by the third party which is now its subsidiary.

These are just late day musings as I keep reading about the big effects that chip shortages are having on industries. I am not an expert in how CML fits into the chain (being a small player with certain specialisms) but I feel certain CML should benefit from the secular demand for its targeted 5G and IOT sectors.

Any comments welcome.

[bamboo2] 13/5/2021 08:18

bones, sorry only just seen your post. Yes the 2x1k were mine. I had hoped to build up a bigger holding, but the price got away from me too quickly. Hoping to get back in soon.

I have 15/6/2021 pencilled in on the dayplanner for an update.


Gla

[roddiemac2] 06/5/2021 14:17

bones,

I also have a large holding, and am happy to sit tight. I am not tempted to sell some for a quick gain. There is little risk, and great potential.

[bones] 04/5/2021 11:29

Fair play bamboo2. I guess the purchaser at 370 of 2k has effectively bought them off you if yours were the two 1k sales?

I’m not trading and am in here for a much longer haul with size that can’t easily be traded with the kind of illiquidity and spread available on CML. Looking for a long upswing in the company’s fortunes and the dividends and capital returns that should come with them. Naturally, that is not a given but they are in the right sector looking ahead, so trusting them to use their recent windfall well.

[bamboo2] 04/5/2021 10:38

A possible turn showed on my chart for today so not sure price will now reach tp 390, have let my few go for approx +18%.

Hope to be able to buy back a more meaningful amount soon.

[bones] 02/5/2021 11:50

Useful info, bamboo2, on both fronts!

[bamboo2] 02/5/2021 10:45

bones, fwiw Digi-Key specifies the same or very similar delivery times on CML parts as last time I checked in mid March. ie most components available for immediate shipping in reasonable quantities.

==============================

Re the chart, I meant to mention that the the back test on the prior Breakaway gap was successful. The breakaway gap from 10/12/2021 measures 284-298 and was caused by the disposal news. This means that the market continues to accept the fundamental event that caused the gap.

[bones] 02/5/2021 10:20

Zinger, please expand that statement by laying out your arguments, specify the issues and explain how it affects CML and their business. A “chip” is a very complex piece of kit and CML has a niche part to play in its construction and the markets they are supplying are in a secular expansion phase. Sure, they have to manage the supply of raw material and manufacturing capacity but there’s no shortage of future demand for their product.

[zingerburger] 02/5/2021 08:37

Chip and material shortages creating problems here

[bones] 30/4/2021 21:08

Bit more info on PRFI that CML acquired in March 2020. I’ve highlighted in bold what I like about them!

“Operating from offices and laboratories in the village of Great Chesterford, near Cambridge in the UK, PRFI has an impressive list of clients for its microwave and mmWave design services that includes Huawei, Inmarsat, Samsung, Analog Devices and Qorvo.

We have benefitted from the growth in interest in higher frequency applications and in compound semiconductor technology, right across the range of end use applications but particularly in recent years for mmWave 5G. We’ve found that our microwave and mmWave design skills have been in growing demand as these specialised technologies have increasingly impacted mainstream applications including 5G.”

Source:

[bones] 30/4/2021 19:05

For those interested in the more technical aspects of the products being developed in the latest areas, there is a webinar coming up being presented by one of the “boffins” at PRFI, the company that CML bought last year and most likely the guys who contributed to the new mmWave IC products under the range called “Surf”.



Microwave Journal appears to have a worldwide audience within the rarified population interested in the tech space.

[bones] 30/4/2021 18:54

Gleach23, thanks for that and info on those big trades at 300-302 area. Those passed me by! Have to assume they unblocked the pipe.

Roddiemac2, I agree that any momentum event will not be restrained at 390 but TA will argue that it is not in the price so is irrelevant! I am not using TA for my investments in general for trading but I do look at areas of support/resistance in some stocks if I am looking to adjust holdings etc.

[roddiemac2] 30/4/2021 18:48

bones ,

Currently liquidity is so low as to be insignificant. If volume turns up on good news, then predictions based on TA could easily be blown out of the water. I don`t use TA.

[gleach23] 30/4/2021 18:35

Thanks for your recent commentary here bones which I have been following with interest.

Nice call on the timing too bamboo2. Let's hope you're right about the flagpole!

I have an investment position here and also a trading position which I took out on 22 Apr when stock availability began to tighten and the underlying Bid improved. Sure enough 2 large trades were reported after the close on the same day which seems to have coincided with the bounce back in share price - 60k @ 302p and 43k @ 300p.

[bones] 30/4/2021 18:17

Thanks for the input, bamboo2. Always good to have fundy and TA signals pointing in the same direction. Certainly seemed bullish price action today. Equivalent of 418p after adding back recent 50p capital distribution.

[bamboo2] 30/4/2021 18:04

bones, cheers for the info.

From a charting pov we have now filled the gap down [354-374] that was caused by the share going ex-rights, on Friday 19 March.

Today's close is above a rising 200sma [305] and turning 50sma [344]

The second part of the flagpole should continue on Tuesday to reach the target [390], at historical resistance.

A consolidation zone around 390 and subsequent upbreak would suggest an ultimate target approx 440-460, but that is just speculation for now.

[bones] 30/4/2021 14:22

Notoriously illiquid share this one! Currently, no quote available online to buy but can sell a lot at 351 (above mid price) so there is clear demand from the MM’s just at the moment.