Cmc Markets Share Discussion Threads

[markbelluk] 28/3/2023 18:26

Graham where is that data from?

[grahamg8] 28/3/2023 17:29

Puzzling numbers: Current sp/mid analyst forecast (number of analysts)
CMCX 60.34%(6), PLUS 55.79% (4), IGG 61.76% (6)

Reasonable consensus on some big players:
BP. 81.64% (22), PSN 91.02% (14), AV. 82.18% (16)
But not on others
BARC 57.31% (16), ENT 62.14% (16)

So do the analysts really know what they are doing, any more than we do? Bank shares have really only fallen a small amount, nothing at all like the doom reported in the press. The Entain gambling empire is pretty unlikely to suffer in a recession. So why are their share prices so low compared with expectations?

Oil prices are under pressure, a housing crisis looms, and investments, pensions and insurance could be in trouble if people have less disposable income. But the analysts are happy that the share prices are robust.

I have to admit to being mystified. Could an investment strategy be build around searching for the biggest sp/forecast discount ie assume the analysts know what they are up to? Surely life can't be that simple can it?

[markbelluk] 28/3/2023 16:14

CMC Markets Plc : Peel Hunt cuts target price to 355p from 462p

[markbelluk] 28/3/2023 14:42

hxxps://www.lsegissuerservices.com/marketplace/LondonStockExchangeRNS

What does it cost to use RNS?

It is free to register with RNS with no long-term contract. Pricing is on a simple pay-as-you-go basis.

[isis] 28/3/2023 14:03

lol They never used to cost anything. There are listing charges when you first list and one or two other things. No £70k though.

[farrugia] 28/3/2023 13:52

'Thats the thing. its not a profit warning. They are so thick with the Rns timing (which costs £70k to issue and is only deemed mandatory if there's a material impact ) and its wording, the market reacts like it is'

markbelluk - do you have that correct? Each RNS can't cost GBP70,000 to issue!!?

[jimbo123elf] 28/3/2023 11:49

21% effective tax rate this year, 26% effective tax rate next year, and we already know this year's full year results are going to be grim. These brokers putting out notes with price targets beginning with a number higher than 1 are miles off the mark IMO.

[jimbo123elf] 28/3/2023 11:41

He usually says he wants to go on for another 10 years.

[base7] 28/3/2023 11:24

As Lord Cruddas approaches 70,would he consider selling his majority stake & exit the business?Currently valued at £500mill, with Plus valued @ £1.5 ( & a cash pile of $1bill +)& IGG valued at $3bill-to name but 2 potential bidders & I am sure there would be more ?

[jimbo123elf] 28/3/2023 10:05

Peel Hunt.

[markbelluk] 28/3/2023 08:55

To be clear Jimbo

CMC Markets Plc : RBC cuts target price to 310p from 350p

Whats the other?

[jimbo123elf] 28/3/2023 08:19

Two broker downgrades this morning

[taras73] 27/3/2023 18:35

Interesting perhaps to notice is that the expected trading update should have been on the 14th April according to their update in January but clearly the news were so great they had to share this much earlier..

[scepticalinvestor] 27/3/2023 18:24

10p open tomorrow?

[markbelluk] 27/3/2023 18:24

>How can they say net income on target for 30% growth from FY22 for three years when they’ve just issued a profit warning?

Thats the thing. its not a profit warning. They are so thick with the Rns timing (which costs £70k to issue and is only deemed mandatory if there's a material impact ) and its wording, the market reacts like it is

The revenue is broadly flat with an operating margin of 30%! The operating costs have increased (temporary) due to expansion hence the net income increase of 30% is on track, with (hopefully) operating costs reducing

Reality check: in 2019 the earning where £5.88m; WORSE CASE they now £60m more likely £65m+!!

[scepticalinvestor] 27/3/2023 18:24

HL is far, far better than this rubbish

[scepticalinvestor] 27/3/2023 18:23

BargepoleNice that they released it late in the day

[dancing piranha] 27/3/2023 18:07

And yet again..... it never fails to disappoint!! Avoid....

[disc0dave45] 27/3/2023 17:53

As per your previous estimate, yeah I get about £65m pbt, sat 17p eps. Forecast was 19.4p so possibly 12% below earnings forecast. Could be a bargain now in a PE of 10x.....but I'm more inclined to wait until June figures.What an appalling time to issue a trading update. How can they say net income on target for 30% growth from FY22 for three years when they've just issued a profit warning?, am I missing something (probably!)

[markbelluk] 27/3/2023 17:30

Alliance News says its all
"As a result, CMC forecast financial year 2023 net operating income between GBP280 million and GBP290 million, with operating costs expected to be in the range of GBP215 million and GBP220 million.

In the year to March 31, 2022, CMC reported net operating income of GBP281.9 million, so at worst, it forecasts a 0.7% decline.

Shares in the company closed 21% lower at 184.20 pence each in London on Monday."

[markbelluk] 27/3/2023 17:14

Wouldnt be surprised to see a large director buy or even an offer now (I know the Cruddas's holds 62%)

Cant help but think there's an ulterior motive

Will also be interesting to see what Tellworth do. I cant see them sitting still. Will they increase or close out?

[dagoberia] 27/3/2023 17:08

So the 20% drop seems a bit like an over reaction i hope

[aleman] 27/3/2023 16:59

Make that a likely cash pile of around £180m versus a market cap of £520m+ - just under 35%.

[aleman] 27/3/2023 16:31

Consensus was net income just over £300m so new guidance of £280-290m is only slightly down, but I think we were hoping it would come in slightly ahead after all the recent volatility.

[markbelluk] 27/3/2023 16:29

>consensus on earnings

£72m

So now we are in the range £60-75m so no that bad

Its just weird and seems panicky & unprofessional to put out an unscheduled Rns @ 4