Cmc Markets Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 17/11/2022 12:40

-75% in CGT and dividend allowances will tend to push a few more investors onto platforms and tax-wrappers. CMCX UK business was 42% of leveraged revenue.

[growthpotential] 16/11/2022 20:05

Very unjustified I would say...

[dancing piranha] 16/11/2022 14:30

Now there's a surprise, down 13% on results day!!

I did say it never fails to disappoint....

Best to sell the day before results!

[markbelluk] 16/11/2022 13:39

"CMC will have few difficulties funding its diversification drive from its existing capital resources – the balance sheet shows more than £250mn of available liquidity. It may suffer from unstable forex rates and unforeseen higher costs, but a forward price/earnings ratio based on Numis’s forecasts for 2023 of 12, falling to nine in 2024, means the shares have a definite value attraction. Speculative buy. "

[markbelluk] 16/11/2022 12:21

Expansion costs money, as do quality staff, more then ever now in fact

So to expand, whilst modestly improving your net profit, especially in this economic climate, impresses me

[riverman77] 16/11/2022 09:21

The issue once again is costs. Very nice rise in trading revenues entirely offset by higher costs, and doesn't look like things will improve on this front. Still a lot more expensive than IGG and PLUS but not quite sure why it deserves a premium.

[markbelluk] 16/11/2022 08:41

The only things we learnt today were positive.

People taking profits 27% up 21/10 (210p-268p) on low volume and numpty panic sellers on a decent update

This will move up nicely over the coming weeks

[bookbroker] 16/11/2022 08:23

And I cannot remember a time, apart from Covid period in 2020, that this company has surprised to the upside. Needs to find a merger or Cruddas to initiate a sale at a premium to current price.

[bookbroker] 16/11/2022 08:20

Don’t know what it is, but this company against Plus is a very poor performer. Their costs are just too high here!

[aleman] 16/11/2022 07:58

Higher costs matched by higher revenue. Closed the period with higher volatility and trading volume. Earnings and dividend were predicted to fall 1/4 to 1/3rd so this is a good result. It's possible the FY dividend will now be maintained.

Not splitting the company for now:

With the launch of CMC Invest, and its growing B2B platform business, the Group boasts two strong underlying businesses, trading and investing, each having robust growth prospects in sizeable markets with excellent competitive positions. In this context, on 15 November 2021 CMC Markets announced that it had initiated a strategic review to evaluate the merits of a managed separation of the trading and investing businesses of the Group. The review was consistent with the Board's continuous evaluation of strategic opportunities to maximise shareholder value.

The review has concluded that given the strong commercial and operational synergies between the Trading and Investing businesses, shareholder's interests would be best served by ensuring that both businesses operate within the current Group structure for the time being rather than by pursuing a planned separation at this stage.

[markbelluk] 16/11/2022 07:47

Numbers look good to me. Especially pleased about the increase in net profit in the face of increased costs due to expansion + inflation etc

its worth noting I dont think the divi cut forecast (see below) will now be case (as Analysts expected a drop in profit hence cut in dividend due to 50% distribution policy):-

"The 6 analysts covering the company expect dividends of 0.09 GBP for the upcoming fiscal year, a decrease of 25.69%."

[longwell] 16/11/2022 07:43

Results okay.

[growthpotential] 15/11/2022 22:42

Results tomorrow?

[aleman] 08/11/2022 16:29

Looking perky ahead of results which are a week tomorrow.

[bookbroker] 03/11/2022 11:53

Results should be good, they have invested heavily this year, albeit cost of technical staff and software been high, but much of that is done. The benefits should start to feed through.

[aleman] 03/11/2022 11:17

Just under two weeks to H1 results. The trading update seemed pretty good and VIX has been at least the same as the H1 average since. 11m shares have been repurchased at seemingly lowish prices in the last round of buy-backs taking outstanding shares down from around 291m to 280m so the prospective figures should be enhanced by about 4%. Given likely decent results and strong balance sheet, I'm not sure why the shares are down in the £2+ region when £3+ would seem to make more sense. The warning on the cost base as they invested for growth was obviously a bit of a downer but trading looks to have made up for that since - and looks to be still probably going well?

[bookbroker] 17/10/2022 11:43

At these prices they should extend this share buyback, as trading strong, just as long as Cruddas should not be in a position to take this private on the cheap. On the basis that his percentage of the free float is increasing upon the buyback, I imagine it enforces his control over the company further.

[bookbroker] 13/10/2022 14:10

This will be coining it on volatility, that is not going away, so CMCX should continue to generate strong returns in i leveraged revenue.

[sphere25] 13/10/2022 14:02

Don't know if there is some forced bits of selling here or just 250 trackers but look at the moves out there. The DOW has dropped nearly 1000 in a flash on that CPI report. Surely the fund manglers should be buying CMCX.

Almost everything out there is grim and there is too much faith in central plankers. Those inflation reads in the US just keep coming in bad, but for some unknown reason they keep having this incredible amount of faith in a softer landing, except the reality is hitting home now.

Another new low on the S&P500.

They were up at around $240 on earnings and now the reality is hitting the forecasts are coming down with one coming out yesterday around the $210 mark. I think they should be at least 10% lower from here to price in sensible risk, but that could be too optimistic. I could see a move under 3000 to form an eventual bottom over there, which will drag us down alot further, but clearly I don't know where the bottom is.

I am just attempting to form a view based on the information out there. I think low 3000's is sensible, even if the mega caps command premium ratings.

Overall...

I continue to:
- Be bearish,
- Playing defence in preserving capital
- Attempt quick counter attack bounce trades but getting out quick if they don't work - small losses work really well in the long term and we're only mostly playing for 5-10% (granted there are some tiddlers or more speculative ones that can pop alot higher like EVG did) right now. It is tough going.
- Expect profit warnings and further share price deterioriation but acknowledge that some of the prices out there will look good 2-5 years out.
- Worry that something might blow up, all this leverage and financial instability could drag things alot lower than expected, but will the FED then reverse course on QT. They are already comments out there now on Bloomberg saying the FED should reverse...blooming hek! Noone wants to take their medicine for the free money excesses.



Volatility isn't going away and CMCX should come out with strong numbers but with all the dislocations and worries over financial stability, everything tends to get smashed so I might have to come out of this one if it keeps looking weak and try again. Already down on it thinking they would buy volatility and competitors upgrading numbers too. Given it more leeway because it should be defensive.

Maybe they eventually will buy it up.

All imo
DYOR

[dancing piranha] 12/10/2022 19:20

I wouldn't bother.... The City dislikes.....

[johndoe23] 11/10/2022 14:42

No position but looking to go long. You would have thought this would benefit from all the volatility but level 2 looking very weak.

[doobz] 06/10/2022 10:49

Annoyingly got tagged out of these as it dipped close to 210. Good results today would have jumped back on if I had the cash. Good luck investors

[sphere25] 06/10/2022 08:57

Caught some nice moves here.

Back long CMCX. This should be higher.

The volatility isn't clearly going to stop. Some nice technical bounces out there from oversold conditions but it is just a matter of how much the central plankers have ballsed up.

That should mean a nice dough filled period for CMCX.

Picked up a few VIC for a quick trade too - some interesting early buying coming in there. IF that continues there might be a nice spike to lob into.

Watching BWNG too. Heavy early exchanges on the warning. Someone is picking up huge blocks at 19.5p but that looks more iffy so wait and see on that one. If enough sellers get mopped up there, it might actually bounce on that warning...oooerr gavnar!

That's all for now.

All imo
DYOR

[markbelluk] 06/10/2022 07:11

Wow!
Net operating income c 20% higher versus H1 2022. Strategic delivery of 3-year
growth plan on track. CMC Invest launched in the UK.
H1 2023 net operating income is expected to be approximately £153 million.
(H1 2022: £127 million +21% yoy).
The CMC Group is proud to launch its new UK investment platform -
CMC Invest ([...]
* Planned new business expansion to grow group net operating income by 30% over
the next three years based on the 2022 results and underlying conditions
remains on track.
Underlying market activity improvement through August and September
underpinned an improvement in net operating income for the Group in the
period.

Client leveraged AUM finished at c £530 million, slightly below the
historical period-end record of c £560 million but remaining at elevated
levels. H1 2023 active leveraged clients are moderately lower compared to H1
2022, offset by an overall increase in activity.

[bookbroker] 06/10/2022 07:06

That looks a positive statement, costs higher as flagged, but trading income coming in higher.