Cloudified Share Discussion Threads

[neo26] 30/11/2016 10:48

flycingC

If judgement is very negative on roi and tribunal say roi have failed to prove the licenses are forged then its crazy to be saying only £1.

With all the pressure roi would be in, they would be forced to settle.

With the evidence out in the public domain if the tribunal agrees this can get really awkward for roi.

Wont be surprised if last minute talks are taking place.

imho

[flyingc] 30/11/2016 10:39

PB01 (11549)

Yes - you are right. The potential for much more is there but the variables of the decision itself (even if generally in our favour) and the antics of the short term traders who always rock up for these events will determine what happens to the share price in the short term once the decision is out. Hence the caveats in my post above.

Personally I haven't decided on a final position and won't do until I see the judgement.

GL - 710p would certainly be nice in the fullness of time !

FC

[neo26] 30/11/2016 10:31

tburns

I can see roi finally settling, this case is effecting them economically $1b hit is nothing compared to the embarrassment due to lies and deceit.

[pb01] 30/11/2016 10:30

Honestly I think its pointless trying to guess the share price next week - it will be heavily impacted on the wording in this decision. If its an emphatic win the share price will multi bag from here. Total claim as of last December is valued at 710 pence per share, calculations have shown just the interest element alone is worth a few pence/share per week!

No point trying to predict it.

I for sure will not be selling out for £1 if its an emphatic win. Been in this too long now to sell my shares off so cheaply.

[flyingc] 30/11/2016 10:26

Carlo (11544)

Good to hear from you - glad you are still around as us long termers wait for the day of reckoning.

FC

PS I would buy that book - although I hope and trust you won't ever be writing it !

[tburns] 30/11/2016 10:25

Forgery price and quantum will be unrelated. I can see it settling around a £1.00 on +ve news as peeps choose to take their cash rather than wait another 18 months or so for a much bigger payout. If we get the right result here I am in for the big bucks as will DQ be.

[mrphiljones] 30/11/2016 10:19

Great post Carlo

[neo26] 30/11/2016 10:19

carlo

when 48% of stock is out of public hands it will be very hard for them to get good amount of stock to take on a takeover. share price will be over £3.

imho

[carlo sartori] 30/11/2016 10:14

Hi Flying C, I think your point is well made and £1 may be fair value if Chl wins the forgery case.
The bit that makes me think otherwise is that at £1 RoI would be much better off just snapping up Chl at a premium to £1 (say £1.50) and in effect they get a huge asset at a knockdown price? While I would be "pleased" with £1.50 I wouldn't be ecstatic (I have held shares in Chl since 2007 and could have sold at over £1.40 in April 2010). I think that in this scenario RoI would effectively be "rewarded" for all their shenanigans over the last 5 years?
I expect that Chl will win the forgery case, if they don't I will be astounded and will hope to write a novel called "The Incredible" which will set out the facts as we have been given them over the past 5 years (all of which are in the public domain) and finish with the sentence.........................."How did ICSID come up with a conclusion of forgery"..............given the storyline over the past 5 years it would be a pretty incredulous conclusion!
Anyway GLA and I hope we are all smiling next week.
Regards,
Carlo.

[stephen1946] 30/11/2016 10:04

25206, thats a start debbie, leave your thread to others and show just a modicom of contrition, i do not expect sackcloth and ashes. But its a start.

Icsid will surprise everybody with its timings, who is to say the delay may be 3 days before publication of decision? We may get RNS later today saying notices served, then nothing for a week or two whilst talks continue between the parties.

[fillipe] 30/11/2016 09:59

ICSID - they've been in this game for just over 50 yrs now.

f

[flyingc] 30/11/2016 09:47

andy (11541)

I find the markets can be irrational on pricing on the back of good news. CHL is relatively illiquid and can move sharply in either direction.

Personally I would think fair value if CHL have a clean win on the forgery issue is in the region of £1.

Why do I say that ? Well, the present share price represents a market cap of just over £50M. At £1 it is in very round terms around £150M. But the claim is stated at $1.3bn.

That seems to me to be a fair discount to allow for a settlement or the delay and further risks in forcing the matter to a full hearing on merits and quantum.

Just my humble opinion - it isn't science and others will no doubt have other views and one could well state a case for a much higher figure (which I'd be interested to hear whilst we wait).

For me though I clocked a long time ago that what I think is fair value (and what might even be fair value) doesn't necessarily correlate to the share price given the market in CHL shares... No doubt plenty of traders will have set their orders before news breaks and that will influence the market heavily once sell orders start getting filled on the way up. And obviously if we were to lose then we're screwed.

We're about to find out in the next few days.....

GL

FC

[andyr42] 30/11/2016 09:35

Good man Litho, keep it focussed. What share price if decision in favour? I'd say peak over £1 and settle between 70-80p, what do everyone think?

[lithological heterogeneities] 30/11/2016 09:30

Still expect a good result here next week as there are so many positives that were not there with OXS last year.

[flyingc] 30/11/2016 09:30

Meantime the share price is creeping up nicely this morning without fuss or fanfare.....

If nothing else the market seems confident in CHL's prospects of a favourable outcome. Certainly plenty of buyers about.

GLA

FC

[lithological heterogeneities] 30/11/2016 09:29

Its great when you give out a good tip (not ramp) and get filtered.Even better when they ignore it while you make big money and they dont.I get some of my stocks from good tips from fellow investors.Anyway...filter away.

[oggyrocks] 30/11/2016 09:27

When is the agm ? Is it this week ?

[neo26] 30/11/2016 09:23

Filtered..

[neo26] 30/11/2016 09:22

I thought you were going to say roi will settle by Friday!

[andyr42] 30/11/2016 09:18

Get lost Litho, this is a CHL thread. On yer bike cretin.

[lithological heterogeneities] 30/11/2016 09:14

COPLSep 16 presentationHttp://www.canoverseas.com/presentations/

[lithological heterogeneities] 30/11/2016 09:10

Canadian Overseas Petroleum

[x1000] 30/11/2016 09:09

Lithological, COPL - can't find it. What does it stand for please ?

[ihavenoclue] 30/11/2016 09:08

lith ... you have my sympathy on that one. Luckily for me, a lot more luck that wisdom, I was out of Oxus at the time and actually made a decent profit on it selling at 4p

I see evil trying to 'recoup' Oxus losses by buying in here ... I hope very much for a different result this time.

Regards
IHNC

[lithological heterogeneities] 30/11/2016 08:58

But I can dream of recouping my hefty OXS losses. :0)