Close Brothers Share Discussion Threads

[suetballs] 02/10/2024 16:55

Coo sells shares - what!
Suet

[j2m] 02/10/2024 16:26

Could revisit January's low of 299p, Nothing but bad news since then. A share not for the faint hearted!! A CEO off long term sick always gives the markets the jitters!

[jubberjim] 02/10/2024 15:16

Time to climb back on board (didn't manage 376 but close enough)

Whichever way it is a share that is never dull

But be prepared for more pain before any meaningful gain

[karv1] 02/10/2024 15:08

Greed wants me to invest in this but my math brain says 400k customer times a possible 1k pay-out plus possible 400k times commissions + 8% yearly interest on total equals some scary numbers. Yet the analyst come up with far lower numbers, LLOy do not seem that bothered, with BARC trying to destroy it in the courts.
The FCA fellow said awhile back that the review is on going but he said i suspect we more likely to find something than nothing in that that interview.

[karv1] 02/10/2024 14:45

I agree Stoopid some people could make a fortune or some people could lose a big percentage.
I would say if everything goes well i half suspect we would see a special pay out. but I also suspect the dividend will be rebased on a 2 to 1 coverage or even 3 to 1.
Companies often use big event to take a look at there pay out coverage.
This would be the perfect time as this event winds down one way or the other.

I do not think CBG will be in trouble super worst case if the numbers are bad CET1 will fall below requirements the dividend will be stopped until CET1 above BOE RULES with a possible right issue depending on time scale on CET1 position.

[chriss911911] 02/10/2024 14:20

stoopid, I do agree with your rationale, you managed to sum up my war time essay so well in one sentence, but your choice, is somewhat at odds with the reasoning...

[sbb1x] 01/10/2024 15:00

Time to buy @395

[suetballs] 27/9/2024 09:36

Panic over it would seem - until the next one!
Suet

[jubberjim] 26/9/2024 06:58

Lemmings the lot of them

Am continuing to avoid but very tempted in light of still a wait until late 2025 before we know

Will see how we get on .

At the moment happy to be square

Good luck holders

[chriss911911] 26/9/2024 06:00

The FCA said that they are delaying as some institutions have failed to provide the necessary information, as they going back 14 years. Why go back that far, to repeat the exercise of the first year, unless it is to access the extend of scheme because they found something already, they went on to say, "more likely now there is something than when they started".

Barclays lost to FOS (Financial Ombudsman Service) already, so the judicial review is last chance to appeal- these court cases for sure delay things, banks not responding fully to FCA, also delay things. Judicial reviews, against FOS, rarely get over turned, the FOS have already hit back and said, Barclays had ample time to respond and failed. At best, the judge rules the FOS were out of jurisdiction and therefore pass baton back to the FCA to decide, rather than get ahead of the investigation.

Lloyds wrote 30bn of vehicle business over 6 years alone, if they go back 14 years, that number is of course higher, if we can take the mix, per the M Lewis 2m claim portal is broadly representative, as that shows over 40% had DCA's, then it gets ugly. So, I look for clues elsewhere, analyst have already said Lloyds could face 2-3bn bill, not 0.4bn, and question how they calculated it back in Feb when there was less known on how the FCA case is going, so I am content to scale the worst case.

So, I think it's back to that binary bet, what FCA decide in the end, it's probably going to be nothing, or a lot, not something in the middle, so talking about 0.4bn, or putting a bit away just in case, so another made up number probably doesn't help. Credit to Close they do not know, they cannot measure it, so no point putting it in, fair enough.

Traders’ paradise now, as that puts a colorful spin on the potential outcome for equity, especially Close who's exposure relative to marked cap is 30x that of Lloyds, and in turn what that means for tier 1 %. As a risk/reward given their substantially smaller equity, a fairly unique situation this, and explains a lot why the price has moved consistently down from £10 in 2023, to just £3 earlier this year and seemingly so cheap, and is resuming it's downward path given the developments of the last weeks, and especially the actions of Close, that point more towards a redress scheme, there's that binary bet again.

Any upward movement breaking down, high's get lower, low's get lower, been that way for a year for the chartist out there, as they say let the trend be your friend, if there are some additional facts to consider a long term investment , then great but I don't see that emerging until May next year, but maybe Close announce something sooner that moves the dial + or -, so far has all pointed towards that binary bet not working out, if you imagine nothing to pay.

[pj84] 25/9/2024 19:47

"Update: Close Brothers

The Financial Conduct Authority’s investigation into discretionary commission arrangements (DCA) in the car financing market continues to cast a huge cloud over the share price of merchant bank Close Brothers.

Last week’s sale of the asset management business is not pleasing everyone thanks to the lower-than-expected price tag.

It is going to be a long haul back for the share price and thus this column, especially as no dividends are currently forthcoming, but the balance sheet and valuation both argue against any decision to cut and run (as does the book loss that would accrue).

The disposal boosts Close Brothers’ common equity tier 1 (CET) ratio while the £750m stock market value compares to tangible net assets of more than £1.5bn, so that 50pc-plus discount already prices in a very negative outcome from the regulatory investigation.

Questor says: hold"

I am hoping that Barclays application for judicial review is successful and mitigates the scope of the FCA's(delayed) investigation but if not I am hopeful as pointed out above that the share price more than discounts any settlement.

[wallywoo] 25/9/2024 13:56

Bgt back in here. Fallen too far too quickly. This will be volatile, but has all the makings of a good trade imho.

[suetballs] 25/9/2024 12:45

Just had a quick look at the Annual Report.
PWC give a going concern thumbs up - although this conclusion is not guarantee!
The Board talk about a range of possible outcomes for motor commission liabilities. So they do have some numbers but they are not disclosing them to anyone - except PWC.
And on relection that is probably a sensible approach.
Suet

[jubberjim] 25/9/2024 06:41

Well Briggs seems to have a level at which he is willing to buy albeit in very small amounts 410/415

Every little helps but I will continue to hold off for time being or until there is more news regarding the FCA decision.

Hang on in there you nervy lot

[suetballs] 25/9/2024 06:25

Yes - ok not substantial buys but they imo are an encouraging sign.
Apart from the regular small Director buys these buys are I belive the first since the motor commission problem arose.
Suet

[tsmith2] 25/9/2024 06:17

a couple of insider buys reported late yesterday

[jubberjim] 24/9/2024 22:25

If the FCA could come to a conclusion quickly then we would know where we stand and make decisions accordingly.

Until then will continue to treat and trade this very cautiously for the reasons given in an earlier message on this board.

Thin nervous market hence the wild swings we have been experiencing.

Not for the faint hearted. Glad I sold when I did.Content to sit this one out.

Good luck all

[j2m] 24/9/2024 19:33

You have an offer of motor finance and it will cost you x. Who gives a damn whichway x is sliced. Surely you look around and if that's the best deal around then you go for it. Would you go for a higher rate if the percentage going to the broker and not the banker (CBG) was different? The whole thing is nonsense and should end up with CBG having very little liability. BUT.. we have a labour government now and it would be an easy way to take from the 'millionaires' (CBG shareholders suppodisly!) and give back to the 'workers'

[j2m] 24/9/2024 19:12

I brought a VCR on credit in 1975. Cost was £55 and ended up paying just short of £200 time I paid it off 15 years later. Moral of the story.. I never did that again and I don't expect a handout. The incompetence was mine as all was laid out in the agreement I signed.

[stoopid] 24/9/2024 17:13

Yeah, Amigo, who lent money to the most vulnerable and least able to pay n society at the most exorbitant rates of interest that few, if any, could repay? Well, what could go wrong there? Sounds like a great business model??Didn't they also lie about their loan delinquency rates and were being investigated for praying on the most vulnerable??

[jubberjim] 24/9/2024 14:10

Try telling that to the Amigo shareholders

Reputations count for nothing .

Dividends Dividends Dividends

End of.

[riverman77] 24/9/2024 13:04

Wouldn't surprise me if the investigation is ultimately halted - looks a complete nonsense from a legal perspective. In the vast majority of cases, car buyers were fully aware of what they were signing up for - they were completely free to walk away or arrange their own financing if they thought they weren't getting a good deal. Moreover, the brokers were following the rules that were in place at the time.