Close Brothers Share Discussion Threads

[suetballs] 05/9/2024 15:02

Well as it's the annual results they're going to have to include a provision for the car loan stuff. It will be interesting to see their assumptions/methodology.
Not long to wait now.
Suet

[tsmith2] 05/9/2024 14:01

Financial CalendarAs previously announced, the group has discontinued the issuance of pre-close trading updates in order to align more closely with prevailing market and industry practice.The group is provisionally rescheduling the release of its preliminary results for the 2024 financial year to 19 September 2024 (from 24 September 2024).

[j2m] 03/9/2024 18:49

Where TF has the recent blogs gone?

[karv1] 03/9/2024 15:35

You maybe correct but the risk still remain for ensample this is all from memory in the 14 years they lent out the 16 billion and with some loose numbers if the average borrower took out 8k that's 2million customers. with the FCA saying on average they think people over paid by 1k that is over 2m x 1k,plus interest at 8% per year that could be compounding onto the debt until possibly 2026 now.............

This is an insane amount and super worst case probably will not happen but no one knows, anything could happen it is a risk..................

When it was at £3 there was a possible 300 to 400% return and a 22% yearly dividend if everything goes well v the risk. finding out around 25th sep

Now there could be 100% to 150% possible return and a 12% yearly dividend, v the risk with possible outcome in 2026

At what point does the seesaw effect against the 9% and 10% other dividend stocks become more tempting with far less risk,
.On the risk v reward seesaw.

[stoopid] 03/9/2024 08:11

Sorry, what huge unknown risk do you mean? If you mean the FCA investigation into historic car loans, well, it's not unknown, and it's not huge. CBG already know about it and have taken steps by raising capital (eg divi cancellation) to pay any fines/compensation.Novitas is being wound down and there should be no more large liabilities there either?

[karv1] 31/8/2024 12:13

The stock has done amazing but at the same time it seems everyone has forgotten the huge unknown risk, unless more info has come out.

[tsmith2] 31/8/2024 08:23

278 - 911 is the one year range. Crazy

[tsmith2] 30/8/2024 09:18

(Sharecast News) - Close Brothers surged on Thursday as RBC Capital Markets upgraded the shares to 'outperform' from 'sector perform' and hiked the price target to 620p from 375p, citing a number of potential catalysts.The bank argued that whether you are looking at historical or sector-relative valuation, Close Brothers shares screen as cheap.It noted that the shares have underperformed the sector by around 55% year-to-date.RBC said the bad news around the Financial Conduct Authority's review of motor finance is now well embedded into consensus and net interest margin and loan growth assumptions are sensible."Therefore, we currently see asymmetric risk to the upside, as the market continues to myopically focus on capital, while we see a number of potential catalysts including: i) a softening of Basel 3.1; ii) a Novitas settlement; iii) IRB approval," it said."Structurally, it is helpful that CBG's NIM is relatively agnostic to a falling rate environment."

[suetballs] 30/8/2024 08:16

RBC view



Suet - always relatively agnostic!!

[smackeraim] 30/8/2024 07:27

making a good move now. should be much higher into September

[suetballs] 29/8/2024 10:40

Yes - I am buying on a regular basis as and when I receive dividends from other companies. Small beer I know but I have already tripled my initial holding.
Suet

[thebutler] 29/8/2024 10:11

It is very likely the 67.5p dividend will eventually be restored, whether that is in a year or in 2 years.

So if you have the patience and don't need the dividend for a couple of years, buying CBG shares now is effectively investing in a 13% dividend on restoration.

Traders influencing the current share price are only interested in short to medium term wheeling and dealing so I reckon jump in there whilst the share price is so cheap.

[stoopid] 29/8/2024 08:05

Novitas write offs have cleared the books, Winterflood/Wealth management arm are doing better due to increased trading volumes and capital inflows. The loan book is highly profitable and has good margins. CBG was previously producing operating profits in the region of £250m ish a year before writedownsWith EPS in previous years of about 135/140 per share when "normal" profitability was going on suggests a P/E of about 3.8 at current price rising to a forward P/E of 4.2 at the upgraded price of 620.I think 620 is still woefully undervalued. If the divi were to come back at previous levels when it's reinstated the yield would be about 12%

[jonnybig] 29/8/2024 07:27

Probably just reversing the earlier ridiculously low price target. They make things up as they go along, they haven't a clue what they're doing.

spud

[tsmith2] 29/8/2024 07:16

once in a while

[tsmith2] 29/8/2024 07:13

Will be interesting to find out why RBC have upgraded so much

[suetballs] 29/8/2024 06:27

Considering the cancelled divi and cost savings 620 imo is still way too low for a ‘one off’ problem but Starmer could levy a windfall tax!
Suet

[bigbigdave] 29/8/2024 06:21

No sorry, only got the headline.

[tsmith2] 29/8/2024 06:11

big price upgrade - do we know reasons cited?

[bigbigdave] 29/8/2024 05:59

RBC RAISES CLOSE BROTHERS TO 'OUTPERFORM' (SECTOR PERFORM) - PRICE TARGET 620 (375) P,

[stoopid] 21/8/2024 22:45

I bought my tranch at 780, just before the price collapsed, then bought again at 298 and 350.My average is 410. So, im not complaining and will be holding this for return of the divi and a large capital gain. Before the Novitas debacle (CBG acquired Novitas in 2017 and wound it down in 2023 taking an approx £180m hit), the share price was over 1000 a share and they were doing well.Just need this FCA probe to be over....

[jonnybig] 21/8/2024 17:14

There's a very good chance the FCA outcome could result in a materially lower outlay, in which case I would expect a special dividend to cover most of the suspended dividend. A very worthwhile punt at this share price

spud

[cirlbunting1] 21/8/2024 15:10

The conclusion you've made now is one that few made when they bought in below 3 (myself included)

[tsmith2] 21/8/2024 13:27

base forming around this mark