Circassia Share Discussion Threads

[x54v] 17/12/2019 11:51

80p finnCap target with 175p target should the company deliver on their forecasts.

A load of upside from the current price. Clear to see why Richard Griffiths is keen to load up so heavily.

"Based on comparable multiples, we initiate with a target price of 80p, which implies a 2021 EV/Sales multiple of 3.7x (Figure 2), equivalent to the median sales FY3 sales multiple in the comparator group. Given the expected superior growth (30% CAGR 2018-2021) rate, this is justified in our opinion. Should the company deliver on our forecasts, the prospect of a 175p price target in 2023 is strong"

[x54v] 17/12/2019 11:02

More important is the fact that there are plenty of willing buyers.

Richard Griffiths, Oryx and Lombard Odier all adding significantly in the past few weeks.

And the new director buying £100k worth on the market. A decent sum by most standards.

[zho] 17/12/2019 10:56

pre - isn't it because Mark Barnett's fund has been hit by a high level of redemptions?

[pre] 17/12/2019 10:52

rns -invesco selling down now hold 52m...i don't get why they keep selling?

[pro_s2009] 17/12/2019 06:24

A lot of selling now is locking in profits and losses for year end. You are seeing across a broad swathe of stocks.

Its just a change of hands as instis reposition themselves. What the institutions do in repositioning or locking in profits or losses makes not effect on the business - all it does is offer a cheap entry price for those willing to hold for a year or two after which, all being well, the share price will be multiples of todays price.

Given air pollution and respiratory illness is on the increase - CIR seem in a sweet spot, worth a buy imo.

[divmad] 17/12/2019 05:13

Good find. Given the compelling economics out to 2024, I find Invesco's trading and selling down here hard to fathom.

[pro_s2009] 17/12/2019 03:42

I found the write up quite compelling and Richard Griffiths is no mug, certainly worth having some.

The write up was from Finncap in September, PDF download link below:



....

[pro_s2009] 16/12/2019 23:49

I purchased a big lump today as well.

[tromso1] 16/12/2019 16:56

Selling seems a bit clumsy. You'd think they'd be better approaching another insti directly and negotiating a single price for the block.

[costax1654x] 16/12/2019 16:20

Hmm no last minute dump?

[m5] 16/12/2019 15:45

Well I have had a dabble, looks like good support at this level and last Director buy at 21p. 2020 looks to be very exciting and good Institutional support.

[x54v] 16/12/2019 15:34

"when they finally do exit" - they may just be trimming down. No way of telling.

The good news is that other instis have been keen buyers in recent weeks and have accumulated significant stakes. So quite possible that any shares currently being sold by Invesco are being bought up by the likes of Richard Griffiths, Oryx and Lombard Odier.

"a hell of a snapback" - agreed. Looking forwards to that.

[spectoacc] 16/12/2019 15:19

700k at 19.5p, but Invesco have a lot more still to shift than that.

Will be a hell of a snapback when they do finally exit, but doesn't seem to be imminent.

[costax1654x] 14/12/2019 04:19

Societe General sold,below 5%

[tromso1] 13/12/2019 18:32

Yes nice find. Invesco doing a JP Morgan then and selling near lows with any luck.

RG's timing with STX was spot on. Would be good if something similar happens here. 6 times your original purchase price in a year or so is very impressive.

[bc4] 13/12/2019 17:57

Nice find shows what patience can do