Cineworld Share Discussion Threads

[flyposter] 02/11/2015 08:08

Bounce from here? I hope so...

[flyposter] 02/11/2015 08:03

@ Sharw "Having twice tried to cross the 600p barrier (the last time being in August) I am left wondering if the initial fall triggered stop losses with a snowball effect"

- This is why I don't set Stop losses, instead I set email notifications that go straight to my phone of price changes below or above a certain point, then check the news.

It's also the reason I am up at 7am every trading day.

[luckymouse] 01/11/2015 00:13

matt123d - you wont get many stock punters on advfn knowing about inside bar squeeze b/o play or having much interest - they are interested in hot news - strong growth - honest dynamic board - an uptrending chart & avoiding loads of pitfalls

Intensive price action study mostly the domain & interest of index/fx traders where a lot of the movement is purely technical only.
Price action usually only hi probability when combined with a confluence of indicators or quant statistics to give an edge

[philo124] 31/10/2015 19:22

GBO, INTQ. they have resigned from GBO.

[sharw] 31/10/2015 14:08

What puzzles me about this is why it fell so much on a note from one broker, and a broker with this reputation:



Having twice tried to cross the 600p barrier (the last time being in August) I am left wondering if the initial fall triggered stop losses with a snowball effect.

[treeshake] 31/10/2015 13:13

I tend to treat broker notes with a pinch of salt. DYOR and stick with it.

[matt123d] 31/10/2015 12:56

That's fine, everyone has/finds their own style, if it's working for you then that's all that matters.

[flyposter] 31/10/2015 12:46

I am much more interested in a companies fundamentals, and potential with a spattering of chart analysis thrown in, I am not at all interested in detailed technical analysis of charts, my eyes glaze over when people start talking about it matt123d.

[lauders] 31/10/2015 12:39

Well this is confusing! Below are both notes from the same "broker" a week apart. Nothing like confusing your clients! Perhaps one client liked the original one so much and agreed so much they convinced Canaccord to issue another contrary one so they could load-up! Surely the FSA should look into obvious cases like this? Seems crazy!

Canaccord has latched onto Bond-mania with the release of Sceptre, the latest film in the long-running franchise, on Monday to repeat its ‘buy’ rating on cinema chain Cineworld (LON;CINE).

But it is the less racy expansion opportunity for the chain in eastern Europe that has got the broker’s juices running.

An analysts’ trip to Romania confirmed the commanding position in a growing market held by Cineworld in a country where there is little competition said the broker.

Subsidiary Cinema City operates 21 of 34 multiplexes in Romania with plans to take it to 40 multiplexes in the next five years.

Cineworld also makes more money per pound of investment in Romania that anywhere else.

The 40 multiplex target is realistic, believes Canaccord, as Romania has a population of 20mln and there are 23 cities with a population of over 100,000.

James Bond and Star Wars excitement meanwhile has led to problems coping with the demand.

Canaccord said Cineworld had confirmed its website had crashed along with its rivals due to the surge of interest, with as many ticket requests for Star Wars in a day as normally come in over three months.

Buy with a 620p target price says the broker.


Cannacorde note....We are reducing our Cineworld recommendation to SELL from Buy with a new, lowered share price target of 535p (from 620p), implying c10% downside. It’s time to take profits. Cineworld’s share price is up 75% over the last 12 months driven in large part by this year’s fantastic film slate that climaxes this quarter with three blockbusters: Bond Spectre, Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 and Star Wars: the Force Awakens yet Cineworld traditionally under-indexes versus Odeon and Vue on blockbusters and our research suggests this quarter will be no exception. This quarter is as good as it gets for the cinema industry. Next year's film slate is less strong and it could be a 'crowded trade' when the market wakes up to a duller outlook not helped by the distractions of the Olympics and the UEFA European Football Championships next summer.Our analysis round the three autumn blockbusters shows that Odeon is more aggressive on the allocation of screens and Vue is more aggressive on price. Cineworld does not believe in revenue yield optimization. Until it does, we believe it will continue to underperform during industry peaks. We are coming to the view that Cineworld is better at building cinemas in unsophisticated East Europe where competition is weak than optimizing performance from its sophisticated UK portfolio where competition is intense.

We estimate Cineworld could be missing out on as much as £2.2m of additional EBITDA per blockbuster in the UK. Assuming a blockbuster/quarter that puts Cineworld’s missed UK opportunity at £8.8m. For 4Q15, with three potential blockbusters, the scale of the missed opportunity may be as much as £6.6m. To put this in context, the UK accounts for c65% of Cineworld EBIT and we are forecasting an H2 EBIT contribution of £44.7m for the UK and £65.4m for group EBIT. It’s a very material lost opportunity for Cineworld. Potential year-end upgrades should not be mistaken for an excellent performance: a rising tide lifts all ships.

Our new 535p target price valuation is equivalent to 18.8x PER, 10.0x EV/EBITDA, an 8.0% FCF yield and 3.0% dividend yield for FY15E. The current share price of 594p values the stock on a P/E of 20.9x for FY15E, 18.9x FY16E, an EV/EBITDA of 10.9x falling to 10.0x, a FCF yield of 7.2% rising to 7.9% and dividend yield of 2.7% rising to 2.9% over the same period. It now looks an expensive stock following its re-rating over the last 12 months.

Anyone else confused?

[flyposter] 31/10/2015 12:31

Yeah, it does sound odd CR, cheers.

[matt123d] 31/10/2015 12:29

In defence of the above defamatory posting. For anyone using Bloomberg pro my trading strategy has now been adopted by them and can be found within technical strategies referenced under IBB (inside bar breakouts).

[jamtin] 31/10/2015 12:17

A bit bemused at some of the lazy press response to this. I accept that next year is a weaker roster of movies (this year has been exceptionally strong, arguably the strongest ever if the Star Wars movie performs to expectations), and that next year also has the Euros and Olympics which will have *some* impact. However none of that is a surprise. None of that changed overnight from Thurs to Friday. None of that changed between Canaccord issuing a 620p target last week and now a 535 target this week. In fact it has been obvious since before the start of this year.

As for their other point around Cineworld not exploiting blockbusters as well as Odeon and missing out on material EBITDA as a result - well I view that optimistically as indicating there is further organic growth to come once they improve on that.

[cockneyrebel] 31/10/2015 11:59

filer him imo flyposter - another bonkers troll with some mad trading system nobody understands except him imo.

CR

[masterblaster] 31/10/2015 09:36

Be thankful this is not on aim. I recently lost several thousands when an aim stock delisted.i invested in cine at under £5 as this company is growing and imo will not let me down long term.so sit back and chill imo this will reach new highs sooner rather than later.

[matt123d] 31/10/2015 00:52

If you're long going into Monday and price breaks the 545p low of Octobers shooter then you need to exit. Price stays above Monday's opening print then you have all time frames green and can use the open as your stop.

[flyposter] 30/10/2015 23:43

@matt123d - this is only my second trade after paper trading for months ( and man I wish I hadn't have been paper trading FEVR... 45%!) I don't quite understand your post, are you saying a dip on Monday is an exit point? Also I need to look up what a candle is, I am guessing that's Chart analyzing stuff?

On the plus side I have 3x the amount in KNOS that I have in CINE, so can afford the -10% stop, as KNOS have me at 35% up.

Thanks in advance for explaining if you do, I am hitting Google right now too...

[matt123d] 30/10/2015 22:07

All you need to know is there's a monthly shooter. New monthly orders/candle next week so if it takes out the 545p then its actionable to the short side. Above 545p and it's just starting off as an inside month.

[flyposter] 30/10/2015 21:35

One more thing on point 2:

Cineworld's expansion plans in the UK:

Bracknell 12 inc. IMAX Opening Spring 2017, as part of The Lexicon. [16]
Dover 6 As part of the St. James Development, Opening 2016.
Ely, Cambridgeshire 6 As part of Ely Leisure Village, Opening 2016.
Harlow - Harvey Centre 6 As part of Harvey Centre plans, Opening 2015.
Hinckley 5 As part of Crescent Bus Station plans, Opening 2015.[17]
Keighley 8 Opening 2016.
Macclesfield 9 Opening 2016.
Murton, County Durham 7 As part of Dalton Park, Opening May 2016.[18]
Newport - Friars Walk 8 Opening 2015.
Oswestry 5 Opening 2015.
Hanley, Staffordshire 9 Opening 2015 [19]
Ruislip 10 Opening 2015.
Trowbridge 8 Opening 2016 however work appears to have stopped and the land is back on the market.[20]
Watford 11 inc. IMAX Opening May 2017.
Leeds - White Rose Centre 11 inc. IMAX Opening date unknown

No wonder they are alone in their downgrading!

Nonetheless, I remain cautious, and have set my stop.

[flyposter] 30/10/2015 21:14

a few points from Cannacord I want to take issue with:

1: "when the market wakes up to a duller outlook not helped by the distractions of the Olympics and the UEFA European Football Championships next summer."

- The Rugby world cup was on during September, yet Cinema visits were up 8.5% on the previous Spetember.

2: "We are coming to the view that Cineworld is better at building cinemas in unsophisticated East Europe where competition is weak than optimizing performance from its sophisticated UK portfolio where competition is intense."

Erm... The company is investing in areas where there is less competition, this is bad?

I am currently 3% down on my holding, if I drop to 10% I am out, I hope that is enough to see me through to the Nov results, which should see a hike in the share price

[luckymouse] 30/10/2015 20:58

katie priceless - they've gone against 11 other brkrs - my own calc same as the consensus - the blockbuster line up approaching with bond, star wars etc is as good as it gets - so more than likely its a 'dip' attack to get in cheap before the results of that season are reported - the fact that it was released on a Friday and the last Friday of the mth when inst volumes and ecos are light (so mostly retail) indicates they timed it for effect.

Basically everyones a ramper and basher - even the pros. It was at technical resistance - but we wont know if a large player was short, or eyeing the current blockbusters may have wanted in at a discount (ie not at resistance) and needed someone to 'facilitate' an entry.

[philo124] 30/10/2015 19:19

interesting drop.

[redips2] 30/10/2015 16:22

Don't shout at the messenger, but there is a gap at 533p 'ish......

[matt123d] 30/10/2015 16:16

Well if that's the case they're losing money. Every new monthly participant also underwater. Daily vwap 569p current price 548p so read into as you will.

[eaglebeagle] 30/10/2015 15:58

Five times average daily volume so someone wants in...more likely in my opinion explaining the rather weak note.