Cineworld Share Discussion Threads

[srpactive] 22/12/2020 14:51

So as every day goes by we are closer to full vaccination
and all back to normal. The darkest day of the year was
yesterday so heading into better times, keep positive the
roaring industry will be back again and better. Once everyone
are all out and about the entertainment industry will soar
for years.

dyor risk.

[srpactive] 22/12/2020 14:30

And in turn the death rate will fall dramatically as the
vulnerable will be protected, the strong and young have not been
dying from it, so all positive in the right direction.

dyor risk

[hpcg] 22/12/2020 10:44

Sorry, I don't understand these comments about cinemas being closed until spring*, write off January etc. Only 15% of revenue is UK and Ireland and 73% is US, with the remainder in eastern Europe and a few in Israel. It has shut cinemas not because of Covid directly but because of a reduced number of theatrical releases. AMC are open and they are showing the likes of Wonder Woman 1984 and releases that are being made. No one is going to see that film in a Regal for a couple of reasons.

Now clearly the company has made the decision to close all locations on commercial grounds, but that has become chicken and egg forcing releases to stream earlier, and making the big studios, not just Disney, think more about reducing what they give up to the middle man. It is not different to DVD sales in shops. Why not go full cloud and run a subscription service, smoothing out revenue and reducing risk on a series of turkeys.

Anyway, that's off topic. What happens in the UK is insignificant to the company now. It is to all intents and purposes a US business and will live and die by what happens over there.


*factually that is the case, but from my reading bullish investors seem to think this is at the whim of the UK government.

AMC open theatres (terrible website):

[srpactive] 22/12/2020 09:50

As did cine last year, I know about boo thank you.

Enjoy your school holidays.

[srpactive] 22/12/2020 09:36

At least cine are not using child labour to make a profit
MI.

[srpactive] 22/12/2020 08:36

w123

Agree I also do.

I feel January is hopeless as a month, so close it down
clear the spread, test and vaccine as much as physically
possible, then when the weather starts to turn better in
March open the country up and build up to a roaring 2021.

The chinese cinemas doing ok I read and Jangho increase
their stake, interesting to say the least.

dyor

active

[whites123] 22/12/2020 07:39

Brilliant,

I see the old "They cannot survive the debt" has rematerialised.

This is despite the same scare stories being rolled out majority of the year and despite CINE securing covenants to debt payment and securing financing to take them through all of 2021 and despite us knowing that cinemas were likely to stay closed until Spring and despite us knowing that the vaccine needs to be administered to large sector of society before results are truly realised.

How easy it is to talk fear.
So difficult to talk optimism.

Been adding when finances have allowed.

[ianood] 21/12/2020 22:40

Rolet seems to have conveniently forgotten debt for equity swaps!

[srpactive] 21/12/2020 20:43

Interesting by city grandee Rolet comments;;

dyor

-------------------------

The highly-respected City grandee warned the problem was so severe that Ministers would next year come under pressure to consider debt cancellation programmes.

He predicted 'big social debate about the cancellation of debt', comparing it with discussions around debt 'forgiveness' in the Roman Empire in the 1st Century BC.

'There's so much debt that if you raise rates, you're essentially killing the whole economy,' Rolet told The Mail on Sunday.

'The only way you can remove the burden is to make the political decision to cancel some of that [debt].'

[srpactive] 21/12/2020 16:09

We will see it all unfold closer to April I suppose.

dyor risk

[dkit666] 21/12/2020 15:38

Yes amazing how well this is holding up compared to some of my others!

[williamcooper104] 21/12/2020 15:03

Doesn't matter how much cash won't pay £1 for 50p Whole worlds awash with liquidity

[srpactive] 21/12/2020 14:45

Compare BABA With Other Stocks
Alibaba Annual Cash on Hand (Millions of US $)
2020 $53,482
2019 $31,542
2018 $34,058
2017 $22,294

[srpactive] 21/12/2020 14:44

HEALTH AND SCIENCE
European Medicines Agency authorizes Pfizer vaccine for use in the EU

[srpactive] 21/12/2020 14:14

If the Chinese Jinyi or Alibaba buy this it could change.

How much cash do Alibaba have?

[williamcooper104] 21/12/2020 14:08

Almost half of all profits comes from screen advertising Free cashflow - eg EBITDA post interest and capex - tells a different story And that's with underinvesting in their estate The level of free cash flow needed support the capex required to properly compete going forward is not supported by current debt load and the 17 percent rescue loans

[vkry] 21/12/2020 13:44

hpcg, first statement is definitely not correct. The company had profits in the reporting cycles before pandemic i.e. Debt(t) < Revenues (t).

What you are saying now is that Debt as t-->T is unstainable. But the question is what is T? Since debt has covenants with rolling provisions it is hard to define a general T.

So you can say t = today and T = 6M, debt(t,T)> Revenues (t,T). But if I define T = 3Years. Then how can you say the same?

[lennonsalive] 21/12/2020 13:00

Incredible rise today after the opening, buyer in the background is helping.

[srpactive] 21/12/2020 12:50

I have been involved in many many recovery situations and
I see this as another, very profitable indeed in an industry
that hit record revenues last year and cine have had five very
positive past years. They have said they will open in April
so the months before make no difference, money in place.
But I do feel the Chinese are very interested indeed.

I bought in the twenties and continued, we shall see.

Keep posting.

dyor risk

[lennonsalive] 21/12/2020 12:26

I cannot see how they will be, no opening date, lockdown 3.0 approaching Jan/Feb, social distancing in cinemas will mean less seats, less customers who will still be shielding and isolating. Less movies as they will take longer to make, all the streaming services that are picking up those releases slated for 2020/21 and millions unemployed who will not be able to afford to go to the cinema.

I'm not short btw or a holder, but there are better shares than this. Well done to those who did the bounce from the lows, but as an investor this is not a long term hold.

DYOR