China Nonferrous Gold Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 21/7/2020 00:36

Back at the bottom of the 3-month trading range here now & in that time Gold has crept up another $100 / oz.Everyone seems to be waiting for FY19 results even though it's mostly known already

[jeanesy] 15/7/2020 14:34

I thought that they were hoping to renegotiate the loans on more favourable rates. The rates are unchanged just extended until december.

[mattjos] 15/7/2020 11:56

BFS Discount Rate 8%. Debt secured at 4.13% and lower for other portions. The NPV value in the BFS is way, way off now

[fozzie] 15/7/2020 11:15

Good to see a clear rns for once, augurs well for the future.

[mattjos] 15/7/2020 10:53

Jolly good. Starting to get these debts on a more formal footing now.
I assume it is USD 6-month LIBOR they are using - currently circa 0.43% so overall interest rate is 3.7 + 0.43 = 4.13%

[mattjos] 14/7/2020 16:13

11.7 v 13.524 for 20k either way

[hari] 14/7/2020 07:07

if the share prices falls, would that then not signify a cup'n' handle formation?

I find as these charts a bit after the event if you know what I mean. A known formation is called, then when chart changes and does follow the thought pattern, then we start again and try to understand the new formation?

You expect an uptrend, but he could fall to form a handle,could it not?

Maybe we need some news on financing of the debt to trigger the direction

[fozzie] 13/7/2020 22:51

Lol well said Matt!

[mattjos] 13/7/2020 20:38

This is probably one of the most common and proven TA patterns.

Breaking $1,80 is a hugely significant event for Gold. Yes, there will be resistance at $1,900, for obvious reasons and may take 2-3 attempts to get through that but, once it does print new all-time high price it will gain a whole load of new energy as every Gold trader in the world is going to buy a new ATH - pretty much Rule 1 of investing.

This is an 8-year bowl pattern & in that time, it will have thrown off all the weak hands and be alive with pent-up energy. The $1,800 breakout and brief re-test last week will have gained more new investors who will also be expecting & holding for much higher prices.

Last week was one of the most important weeks for Gold in many, many weeks.

Quite frankly, if CNG cant make this crack-on hum from here onwards, then they never will.
Interest rates are nailed to the floor across the globe and lenders are crying out to lend with some sort of marginally +ve yield.
The company will shortly have the Audited Accts for 2019 to tuck under its arm as it approaches lenders & has the gravitas of CNMIM as the primary equity holder and backer.
Gold is running 25% above its planned price per the BFS & in a strongly rising environment.

Any decent corporate negotiator should be able to virtually halve the average interest rate that CNG is currently paying on long-term debt, given the current set of circumstances & ten halve it again when Phase II is completed and delivering to plan.

It's a sweet set-up & now all about financial management competency & operational delivery.

If they don't deliver from here onwards, I will personally be on a plane to Beijing to meet them face to face & be demanding a job to do it for them :-)
At the very least I can bring their website up to date & likely do a better job on IR than they or the Nomad have ever managed to date.

[mattjos] 08/7/2020 12:08

Spot Gold through the $1,800 barrier now

[celeritas] 07/7/2020 19:14

This has held up well after such a stupid mistake. It has me looking anyway.

[mattjos] 07/7/2020 19:08

Quicker results are out and done, the better. Markets generally 'prefer' to look forward & looking forward from here means seeing Gold now at $1,800 and first full year of 'optimised' plant production.

[danmart2] 06/7/2020 17:05

Bull or bear, there is no denying the mine has high potential

Today’s finishing price is fair considering the reporting error and potential upsides

One could argue the shares are a bit more of a bargain, all depends on the results due before July 31

[mattjos] 06/7/2020 15:53

Gold this year:

1Q20 average was US$1,582/oz
2Q20 average was US$1,711/oz.

[c9ajl] 06/7/2020 14:48

Any gold miner producing 100k per year and clearing a profit of $1000 per Oz is going to be banking big numbers. This is why I'm invested long term in a number of gold miners for tomorrow's rewards, not today's100,000 Oz x $1000 = $100,000,000Every $100 increase in gold adds $10,000,000 to the profit pot$2000 Oz gold = $200,000,000$3000 Oz gold = $300,000,000I think I read someone post CNG debt paid off in 6 years would be acceptable. The gold price will determine that timescale. So long as the debt is serviceable and we see a clear plan from management to pay it down. I remain interested in what CNG are doing with this exciting asset.The please keep up the informative posts on the BB

[mattjos] 06/7/2020 14:43

something like that :-) & at way higher gold prices

[wind dancer] 06/7/2020 14:17

As I read it if we annualise the Jan -April ( 4 months) production we will get an increase in gold ounces of 27% over last year....at a considerably higher price per ounce.
Pls check.

[mattjos] 06/7/2020 14:14

I believe I understand what it is that management were 'trying' to say in the first RNS & had they got the wording right it would not have been necessary for such a clumsy reissuance of the RNS.
None of this alters the financials though & none of this alters the price of gold today or, its trajectory.
I doubt there are actually many more left to sell out of the share so, that in itself should limit the downside so, like eke and some others here, I will be sitting still and keen to see what $1,800+ gold does for the share price. Don't think there will be too much longer to wait for that

[leopoldalcox] 06/7/2020 13:58

Understandable market reaction. However, the true debt level was broadly known beforehand by those that paid attention.The issue with this share for me, and I have a small position, is the ownership structure.Debt ownership is a huge part of that for me, and I wait to see whether this will be paid down and shareholders rewarded, or whether other Chinese stakeholders take all of the rewards

[fozzie] 06/7/2020 10:05

Understandable fall I guess, it was a very poor original rns. I often wonder who writes and then approves rns statements. They are often badly written, opaque at worst, misleading at best and I am talking all companies not just Cng. All that buying and progress undone with the stroke of a pen, cheesed off as was in a nice position here.

[hari] 06/7/2020 10:01

Good luck ,Looks like a reminder of the true debt has not gone down well with the market .As long as Gold holds up , should see decent returns in 2 years

[hari] 06/7/2020 10:00

BeeksA lot of recent talk was about $270m debt figure Apart from you , I do not think anyone else thought it was anymore than that I looked back , and the last clear reference of total debt was mentioned in 2018 results . The Company's gross debt outstanding as at the date of this announcement, before the repayments noted above, totals approximately US$388.2 million of which $190 million is repayable during 2018.

[beeks of arabia] 05/7/2020 22:26

Thanks for your concern.