China Nonferrous Gold Share Discussion Threads

[fozzie] 30/9/2020 10:41

Not sure there is anything new in there, the boss is certainly a glass half full sort of guy.

[mattjos] 30/9/2020 10:39

They seem to be sticking with their way of reporting which, seems a bit odd as compared to peers but, there is consistency YonY in the way they are doing it so, we can do basic time period comparators.

The plant is averaging 1,904t ore / day in H1 2020 as opposed to 1,710t ore / day in H1 2019 so there is clear increase in ore processing ability.
The primary Recovery Rate has similarly increased from 87.85% to 92.07%
The smelter has increased from processing 45t/day in H1 2019 to now processing 49t/day in H1 2020 but, the smelter recovery rate appears to have dropped off slightly.

Overall H1 2019 there were 0.05025 gold ingot / t of ore processed
Overall H1 2020 there were 0.05052 gold ingot / t of ore processed

Drilling down further:

2019 Jan-Jun
Revs: $20,881,000
Ozs Sold: 15,557
Ave. Price / oz: $1,342
Ave. oz / day: 86
Ave $ / Day: $115,365

2019 Jul + Aug
Revs: $6,989,000
Ozs Sold: 5,350
Ave Price / oz: $1,306
Ave. oz / day: 86
Ave $ / Day: $112,726


2020 Jan-Jun
Revs: $24,330,000
Ozs Sold: 14,839
Ave Price / oz: $1,640
Ave oz / day: 82
Ave $ / Day: $134,420

2020 Jul + Aug
Revs: $12,180,000
Ozs Sold: 6,475
Ave Price / oz: $1,881
Ave oz / day: 104
Ave $ / Day: $196,452

from June onward, the plant seems to perform much better, which I assume is weather/temperature related + the ongoing optimisation of the plant is still evolving & having an impact on YonY comparators + we still don't seem to be getting any commentary as to what specific progress they are making towards Phase II.

CNG are unusual in that they do everything themselves in their mine … extraction, processing, refining/smelting. It's a BIG operation & I cant work out how long the process takes from start to finish for a notional oz of gold.
Dread to think what the value of Gold is 'in-circuit' at any one time & how they can even calculate it.

Main thing is production is stable and trending upwards with a rising Gold price. They are unaffected by Covid

[glawsiain] 30/9/2020 10:35

results are out at the slightly odd time of 9.51

[mattjos] 28/9/2020 10:45

finally a little flurry of buying today as we near the scheduled Interims

[mattjos] 16/9/2020 21:21

Interesting tick up today, for seemingly no reason

[mattjos] 09/9/2020 22:37

A move, off some good Interims, into the 15-20p zone soon seems a reasonable expectation to me

[mattjos] 09/9/2020 22:35

We've been pretty much trapped in the 10-15p zone for 11 months now. In that timeframe pog has moved up 25%.

[mattjos] 09/9/2020 22:30

3 weeks for results and not a squeak here yet

[mattjos] 04/9/2020 23:26

Going back over the Production Data for 2019, according to how we were advised of it as the year progressed:

2019

Jan - Jun Production: 15,557oz Produced
Jul - Aug Production: 5,350oz Produced
Sep - Dec Production: 16,645oz Produced

Full Year Production: 37,552oz Produced

So, production was split H1: 41.4% & H2: 58.6%


So far in 2020:

2020

Jan - Jun Production: 17,411oz Produced (+10.6% YonY)
("....541.55 kg gold bullion were poured with a comprehensive recovery rate of 79.14%.")

Assuming they achieved an average of circa $1,600/oz then, H1 Revs will be up circa 30% YonY

Even with the high finance costs, the operation should be breaking even in H1 & then show a profit in H2 ….but, we are still only at 50% of the planned annual production rate.
The quicker we can get the Phase II upgrades coming on-line, the quicker the cash generation & profitability is going to shine through in the figures & the debt reduce.

[mattjos] 04/9/2020 14:58

House Broker have moved from 9.75p Bid to 11.5p Bid today .. on only one trade today at 13p.

[bmcb5] 02/9/2020 12:32

I'm still picking up bits of stock, here and there. I plan to continue up to the interims, and then assess from there

[mattjos] 02/9/2020 09:11

Around 3 weeks to the Interims now

[mattjos] 25/8/2020 17:30

steady away … from what I have seen recently, whatever little stock is being sold is also mainly being picked up

[mattjos] 19/8/2020 22:16

clearly we don't know for sure but, this April Tender for 'Technical reconstruction of the pumping station' seems likely to be in some way related to Phase II.
Doubling rate of production is going to require an increase in pumping of tailings & water (for example)



(Look up the link in Chrome and it should Auto-Translate for you)

[mattjos] 19/8/2020 17:47

Spread is slowly approaching something sensible ... frustrating waiting for the sellers but, most will simply be cashing-in to chase elsewhere.Five weeks to the Interims

[mattjos] 18/8/2020 18:07

I assume it is more to do with either an accounting/tax thing and/or the company is preferring to wait until the Interim Results are published and they therefore have Audited FY19 & HY20 accounts on-hand to assist in longer term renegotiations.

Production in 2019 averaged 86 oz/day Jan thru August & averaged 103 oz/day for the entirety of 2019.
It was the Sept-Dec period where the mine jumped up to averaging 136 oz/day which gave the uplift for the year as a whole.

I think we haven to assume some type of seasonality in their production due to temperature fluctuations with the bias to H2.
Most chemical reactions (assuming they are neither exo or endothermic) will be quicker at higher temperature.

Very curious to see how the production goes across this year & at what point we begin to see an impact on the figures from the Phase II implementation.

I assume construction work is most likely to occur during the late-Spring/Summer/early-Autumn window and therefore whatever aspects of Phase II are implemented this year will first be seen at some point during the H2 period.

not long to wait for the Interims and see how the strong gold price has influenced the financial metrics.

[hari] 18/8/2020 08:13

Well looks like it was down after that MattjosJust wondering is it normal to agree loan extensions for just six months/ short periods .. it just creates a little uncertainty nearer the time the debt has to be renegotiated I assume it is to do with with risk on such a large debt

[wanobi] 11/8/2020 16:08

have they ever LOL, cheers Wan :-)

[mattjos] 11/8/2020 15:39

just the one MM left on 16p now. Don't think the MM's really know where this will go next

[mattjos] 09/8/2020 12:03

Keep it simple and assume $1,600 / oz ave for H1 2020, gives:

17,411oz * $1,600/oz = Revs for H1 2020 of $27,857,600 (circa +33% YonY)

It is still early days but, the overall plant performance at Pakrut looks slightly biased towards H2.

H2 2019 saw a significant increase across all metrics as compared to H1 so, whilst it is still early days in the production data spreadsheet, I assume the overall plant performance is H2 biased as a consequence of weather/temperature.

[mattjos] 09/8/2020 11:50

H1 2020 Production metrics as compared to H1 2019

Tonnes of Ore extracted: -12.99%
Tonnes of Ore Processed: + 11.32%
Ave. Grade of Ore: + 8.57%
Comprehensive Recovery Rate: + 1.42%
Gold ingots poured: + 11.91%

Jan - Jun 2019, they poured / sold 15,557oz for Revs of $20,881,000

Jan - Jun 2020, they poured / sold 17,411oz for Revs of .... see below

[ned] 09/8/2020 11:33

I'm no guru, but if the $3300 gold target Eric Sprott enthuses about is hit by end of 2020 then the CNG share price now will just look like call options in the rear view mirror imvho. https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/after-an-incredible-week-huge-things-happening-in-silver-weekly-wrap-up-august-7-2020.html

[mattjos] 08/8/2020 18:34

Taking the time now to go over the FY Results statement in fine detail.Management commentary has historically always been very conservative. I believe the history of the company & the Pakrut project has taught them to always hope for the best but, plan for the worst .. & you can hardly blame them for that mindset given past events.However, i do note that in this set of Results the tenor of management commentary, whilst still quite 'military' in many ways, is also starting to turn rather more upbeat .. & that is quite a shift, imo.It's irrelevant who is providing finance to get a business going, as an Executive Director of that business, you damn well want to make sure the business gets on its own two feet as soon as possible and you & your team can prove to the sponsor that the business is successful and can make it's own way. That achievement is a reflection on you and your team - that you are doing a good job.Up until now, the results have always made it quite clear that company is not actually capable of independent survival but, in this set of Results we are advised:"The parent Company CNMC has committed to supporting the CNG group should this be required for a period of at least 12 months from the date of approval of these financial statements."The language & tenor of management commentary is definitely changing & the confidence is growing.They are confident they can hit the FY targets. Grades are increasing. Gold price is clearly giving them a big assist. They are working to increase production and efficiency of the smelter.2019 was the pivot year, imo .. the year Pakrut stood up on its own two feet & it will grow stronger with every passing day now.I say 'Bravo' to all involved & remain convinced we are seeing a future colossus in the making. Judging by the small increase in price & trading volumes, I think others are just now beginning to question their prior negativity & ask themselves; "Yes, maybe this is now going to work out well from here onwards."Well done the team at Pakrut .. great job in 2019 & looking forward to hearing how you are pushing things on this year & next towards completion of Phase II.Meantime, please continue to keep the crew safe from the virus.

[mattjos] 07/8/2020 23:57

Good week for CNG: