China Biodiesel Share Discussion Threads

[taurusthebear] 19/7/2009 14:07

Still un-mentioned on the "CR" thread, AFAIK, so relatively unknown and un-ramped. Being foreign, it will put a lot off. And being tiny, likely to put off many traders. But that's good - who wants them? I'd prefer a steady, fretsaw rise over the next few months. :0)

[campomar2] 19/7/2009 12:48

Risk 1: Amazes me that people are just waking up to this. Assets of around £ 20 million, with around £3 million of debt leaves Net assets of £16 million ish which equates to 35-40p per share. IPO was at 85P for goodness sakes! Incredible value here. Agree though that judging by the volume of posts on this board compared with only a few weeks ago theres likely to be much interest in this next week, and with only 2 market makers and shares very tightly held this could be squeezed sharply higher. Difficult to buy online though so hopefully traders will be put off and it wont be a victim of the pump and dump brigade and us long termers can just sit back and watch the market value this properly over time.

[jailbird] 19/7/2009 12:21

thanks for the comments here..only have ben holding a short term too.

Aim1, i know you follow HAIK and very well informed with China pricing control etc. and if you are lloking to buy in, i'm know your info will be useful to know.

I'll be interested to find out what you conclude from tim00's post.

the recent final results will answer some of your questions

[tim00] 19/7/2009 11:18

aim11, I have read back but haven't followed the stock in real time. Fwiw, my view is that the company largely stopped producing price-controlled product before the downturn hit in H2. As you say, the problems have been a shortage of feedstock, rising costs of feedstock until mid-2008 and falling demand and prices of outputs thereafter. Hence the new capacity was mothballed last September which continued into Q1 2009. The fall in demand and prices also resulted in accounting losses on inventory as their value was marked down in H2. Another issue is that while its product prices are not directly regulated by the government, it probably competes with products that are price regulated and its own prices declined sharply during H2 and early 2009. Despite all this, the company made a small profit in 2008 due to government grants. While all these problems continued in early 2009, most are now unwinding. Demand and prices are stronger (hence the new plant is back on stream since April) and the company seems to have been clever in using bank loans to contract for feedstock at low prices. This should result in higher margins as output prices recover, and also accounting profits due to revaluation of inventory. In conclusion, profits in 2009 H1 will be low but positive in my view, but with substantially improved prospects for H2 2009.

[aim11] 19/7/2009 09:30

am in right in saying that in h2 last year the company was squeezed badly by higher feedstock prices and either falling product prices b1 and b2 due to china slowdown in h2 or product prices that had their prices controlled by the govt and hence weren't allowed to rise as the govt was worried about inflation. so it had to shut down the new plant almost immediately. ?? any of the longer term followers of this stock confirm that?

now they seem to have skewed product much more towards b1 and b2 products which at least aren't govt controlled

[taurusthebear] 19/7/2009 05:00

risk1 - only came across BCI on Friday, so still getting up to speed. I don't buy into many companies (currently only got 5), so I need to be reasonably bullish to buy in the first place. But, to me, BCI is, like BTC, higher risk, so my position is smaller, though I also see potentially higher rewards.

As for EPS, that's a pig in a moving poke, but it looks as if business (and the share price) may have bottomed out late last year when raw material prices were high and the credit crunch was adversely affecting economies Worldwide. They still managed to make a profit, though, and with business picking up since March and higher production capacity, it seems to me that 2009 will be the potential turnaround year, with profits coming in higher than last year.

That's good enough for me. At 3m market cap., this could double and still be considered cheap! :0)

[tim00] 18/7/2009 13:59

Taken fom 2008 Final Results:

Since the beginning of 2009, management has been undertaking a new project in CBI's Xiamen plant to produce a kind of surfactant, which is a by-product of B1 and commonly used in detergent products. This will allow the Company to exploit a new sales opportunity and achieve a higher overall sales margin in the future.

Apart from boosting margins, it will result in higher production and use up more of the company's recent excess capacity. Will be interesting to hear progress on this project in the Interims.

[risk1] 18/7/2009 13:58

Jailbird

Read with interest the post from Taurus

What is your take on expected profits eps at the next set of interims?

[jailbird] 18/7/2009 13:48

risk1,

top slice if you fear that..but i'm holding for longer anyhow.

10p is just the next resistance level.

[robandkerry] 18/7/2009 13:35

Cant wait for monday. 10p min. :)

[risk1] 18/7/2009 13:02

Taurus

If you don't mind me saying so you sound rather bearish

What are you expecting re PBT/EPS to make you this way?

I really wish this BB would return to how it used to be nice and quiet

I fear a large spike in the share price next week is on the cards followed by the inevitable
dump

[taurusthebear] 18/7/2009 04:53

Bought in yesterday, thanks to jailbird for pointing me here. Thought the web site a bit simplistic, and prospects a bit hazy, with increasing revenues but vastly decreased profits - due to capex or decreasing margins?

But as with BTC, business seems to have picked up since March (at hopefully better margins), their assets/facilities are better than when they went into the downturn... and the current share price/market cap. discounts a lot of uncertainty.

But remarks such as 2008 PBT exceeding the market cap. are plainly untrue. Do the currency exchange. It helps if people post credibly... :0)

[campomar2] 17/7/2009 16:55

Aim11...read this article which quotes broker forecasts issued 12 months ago. You will be buying more at 8am monday morning when youve read it!

[qipincha] 17/7/2009 16:17

possibly...

[aim11] 17/7/2009 16:14

any one got a copy of the evo research on this stock?

[risk1] 17/7/2009 16:08

momentum traders??

[qipincha] 17/7/2009 15:49

Please look at the trade of CBI today:(increase 12% )
Time Price Volume Value Buy/Sell Type
15:27 7.10p 25,000 £1,775 Buy O
14:56 7.10p 14,084 £1,000 Buy O
14:50 7.10p 25,000 £1,775 Buy O
14:00 7.00p 20,000 £1,400 Unknown O
13:52 7.10p 14,000 £994 Buy O
13:48 7.13p 6,877 £490 Buy O
13:48 7.13p 11,943 £851 Buy O
13:36 6.75p 25,000 £1,688 Sell O
13:29 7.20p 22,500 £1,620 Buy O
13:22 6.95p 25,000 £1,738 Buy O
13:17 6.95p 16,000 £1,112 Buy O
13:14 6.95p 15,649 £1,088 Buy O
12:56 6.95p 10,000 £695 Buy O
12:50 6.95p 6,973 £485 Buy O
12:48 6.95p 50,000 £3,475 Buy O
12:43 6.95p 14,131 £982 Buy O
12:32 6.65p 16,000 £1,064 Sell O
12:29 7.00p 3,454 £242 Buy O
12:28 6.75p 15,000 £1,012 Buy O
12:17 6.75p 50,000 £3,375 Buy O
12:01 6.45p 30,000 £1,935 Sell O
11:55 6.75p 4,311 £291 Buy O
11:03 6.75p 1,771 £120 Buy O
10:59 6.74p 4,281 £288 Buy O
10:52 6.74p 12,500 £842 Buy O
10:44 6.75p 25,000 £1,688 Buy O
10:28 6.74p 2,029 £137 Buy O
10:15 6.50p 50,000 £3,250 Buy O
10:14 6.50p 735 £48 Buy O
09:44 6.10p 194,500 £11,864 Sell O
09:42 6.20p 194,500 £12,059 Sell OK
09:41 6.50p 25,000 £1,625 Buy O
09:18 6.40p 40,000 £2,560 Buy O
08:52 6.35p 40,000 £2,540 Buy O
08:40 6.05p 9,771 £591 Sell O
08:37 6.23p 100,000 £6,225 Sell O
08:12 6.25p 15,000 £937 Sell O
08:12 6.05p 15,000 £908 Sell O
08:01 6.23p 15,000 £934 Sell O
08:01 6.23p 2,200 £137 Sell O

and then have a look of trade of Your space (increase 25% so far)

Time Price Volume Value Buy/Sell Type
15:27 27.71p 3,662 £1,015 Sell O
15:26 30.00p 1,171 £351 Buy O
14:57 26.70p 20,000 £5,340 Sell O
14:24 26.60p 4,000 £1,064 Buy O
14:24 28.00p 2,500 £700 Buy O
14:18 30.00p 5,000 £1,500 Buy O
13:10 25.05p 2,209 £553 Buy O
11:55 28.50p 7,288 £2,077 Buy O
10:52 26.50p 2,500 £662 Buy O
09:54 23.50p 12,500 £2,938 Sell O
09:48 27.00p 660 £178 Buy O
08:17 26.00p 10,000 £2,600 Buy O

what a difference

[moreforus] 17/7/2009 15:46

there are only 2 market makers...wins and evo.. nms is 10k shares and evo is 6.75-7.25 and wins is 6.5-7.5 so evo is on both sides of the market which is never good...

[robandkerry] 17/7/2009 15:45

What makes you say that?

[qipincha] 17/7/2009 15:43

the market maker of this share is definitely a poor market maker.

[qipincha] 17/7/2009 15:35

800,000 is nothing to Chinese government.
At the moment, Chinese government is more keen on solar power. If you read their news, you will see what a significant difference is.

[mikeja] 17/7/2009 15:23

qip,the gov already supports biodiesel,CBI was subbed £800,000 in Q1 alone

[robandkerry] 17/7/2009 15:17

The current mkt cap is less than 2008 profit. Worth 50p all day long imo.

[qipincha] 17/7/2009 14:51

at the moment, the difficult bit for the company is to find enough feedstock.
if they found enough feedstock, they will definitely win in the future...

[aim11] 17/7/2009 14:49

ok thks guys, will come back ltr with any thoughts