China Biodiesel Share Discussion Threads

[jkershaw] 25/9/2008 17:33

someone getting impatient...very low vol moves this share price Fool selling now...put your money back! The tunnel is nearing the gold strike.

[jkershaw] 22/9/2008 09:09

Ageed, even tough market conditions where feedstock cost has been high cbi maintained profit by successfully switching product sales, thats good management if you ask me. So the drop in feedstock cost should see margins increase significantly end of H2 which will give small tick up in overall profit. Looking better for H2 and v.good 09. When additional production comes on full capacity with higher margin and there is certainly a demand for the product, sales is v.strong.

Time to top up on this low sp, signals are looking good for cbi for next 6-12 months.

Fingers crossed for sure this time.

[woracle] 19/9/2008 15:05

Not sure how much feedstock was bought at high prices..i suspect a fair bit looking at the big increase in inventories. Does that equate to 3 months, or 6 months stock at current output ? Dont know..probably 6 months from what they say.. but they must have bought knowing it is still profitable else no point right ? But any feedstock in last 3 months would have been 30% to 50% lower. Vege prices collapsed in 3 months..just look at the palm oil charts on the web as a good proxy. They were at 17 month lows last week.

[jkershaw] 19/9/2008 12:30

Woracle, thanks, that's a relief on cash. So if the spot rates ended July and new contracts at a reduced rate were secured, we should see slightly better margins by EOY then. Without getting ahead of myself this could be turning into a gem! :-)

Just banked a tax rebate for a few grand and thinking about buying a few more at this price.

[woracle] 18/9/2008 23:02

jk, spot prices definetly peaked in March/April but I suspect they buy forward cotracts and they are a bit out of sync. Cash flow will be greatly improved going foreward as the capital expenditure is nearly over for Xian. Only 4.7M RMB left contracted for capital spend on 30th June... until they start planning for next plant. They are collecting cash well though.

[jkershaw] 18/9/2008 17:02

"Pity about the forward contracts keeping source prices high for H2" I missed that one in the report...and there I was getting excited about a considerably better margin for H2 :-(

[jkershaw] 18/9/2008 08:25

Woracle, bang on, an ordinary H1...looks like you are right about feedstock although cbi claim it peeked in June, three months later. "Throughout the first half of 2008, prices of vegetable oil feedstocks increased steadily,
peaking in June, before falling dramatically in July." So margins look set to improve in H2 (good, good!!)

Disappointment is that the xian is producing lower than expected but they are ramping up which again will be felt in H2.

Good news is the switch to high % margin B1/B2 has kept cbi in profit. Bad news is transport costs have increased.

Also borrowing came as supprise and cash flow burn was higher than I imagined as they have good revenue stream now.

In summary cbi must continue their focus on margin and get a grip on cashflow.

Holding on here with bated breath!

[woracle] 18/9/2008 08:19

Well, not a lot in these results. Positives ..still maintained margins despite highest feedstock prices in history and and Xian plant is up and running albeit slow ( whats new ! ). Pity about the forward contracts keeping source prices high for H2 so no fireworks, but with vege oil now 50% lower than in H2 peak, they seem to be scouring Asia securing contracts for 2009 feedstock at these prices and that should mean feedstock costs of about about 3000/tonne next year. The margins could be back to 3000/tonne this time next year just when Xian is at fill capacity. If they repeat H2, PE wil be around 3.5 so pretty much priced in. 2009 should be very interesting indeed.

[woracle] 04/9/2008 22:44

Lets hope Xian really is up and running properly. Source vege/animal oil prices started coming down in March and are 45% lower in $ terms, even more in RMB from its peak so margins and production should give a double whammy boost in H2. I expect a pretty ordinary H1 with a massive improvement in H2. Not long to wait now for news of progress.. mid Sept. Cautiously optimistic.

[jkershaw] 03/9/2008 13:55

Well, I doubt we will see any reporting now until next interims. Unbelievable that no news was released on the production rollout...I emailed the company and they confirmed the operational situation.

Plant 1 in Longyan: 20,000tons (operational)
Plant 2 in Longyan: 30,000tons (operational)
Production line 1 in Xiamen Plant: 50,000 tons (operational)
Production line 2 in Xiamen Plant: 50,000 tons (not constructed yet)
Plant 3 in Longyan:100,000 tons (not constructed yet)

Why no market announcement beats me. Really hoping they can produce the online additional capacity at better margins. Due a bit of luck now as market robbing me blind!

Good luck all holders, it could be a long long wait on this one.

[jkershaw] 08/8/2008 14:06

Woracle, you have a good memory! Thanks for that

I picked this old post up which Id received from the house broker. If only this could ring true based on current oil prices. Shame the feedstock rise wasnt factored into it on results to date

Income Statement & Earnings Sensitivity to Oil Prices -- FY07e

Estimated Oil Price (US$/bbl)

Change from base case ($7.50) ($5.00) ($2.50) Base $2.50 $5.00 $7.50
Price $53.80 $56.30 $58.80 $61.30 $63.80 $66.30 $68.80
(Rmb m)
Revenue 230.6 241.0 251.4 261.8 272.3 282.7 293.1
EBITDA 42.5 53.0 63.4 73.8 84.2 94.6 105.0
Operating Income 36.0 46.4 56.9 67.3 77.7 88.1 98.5
Pretax 38.8 49.2 59.6 70.0 80.4 90.8 101.3
Net Income 38.8 49.2 59.6 70.0 80.4 90.8 101.3

EPS (GBp) 5.54 7.03 8.51 10.00 11.49 12.97 14.46
PER (x) 16.5 13.0 10.7 9.2 8.0 7.1 6.3


But this looks good for cbi

China's top economic planner has announced price controls on a package of products, including grain, EDIBLE OIL, meat, milk, eggs and liquefied petroleum gas, Xinhua learned Wednesday from a work conference of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) "Major enterprises are required to submit the price-raising scheme to the government for official approval 10 working days before they intend to raise the prices,"

and this

National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced on June 19th 2008 that the retail prices of gasoline and diesel would be raised by RMB1000 per ton respectively from June 20.

So feedstock costs should have stabilised a little in the last 6 months and the increased retail price of diesel means CBI can sell at a higher price/better margin.

Dont know what you think Woracle but seems like a receipe for a turn around is beginning to unfold. If this share price drops a bit further I will buy some more for the long term play.

I do expect them to annonce the xiamen production capacity soon...however, past history shows they were not very good at delivering capacity on time but as they say 3rd time lucky. I hope they have learned by now.

We shall see.

[woracle] 08/8/2008 12:50

They changed their planning. See post 153.. consolidation of that they have is good I think before more capital spend..

[jkershaw] 08/8/2008 11:58

Woracle do you know what happened to Plant 3? According to the website the strategy said this would start construction in 2007 and complete 2009 at Longyan adding 100,000 tonnes

So far I understand CBI have the following

Plant 1 Xiamen Production line 1 - 50,000 tonnes
Plant 1 Xiamen Production line 2 - 50,000 tonnes (about to come on line)
Plant 2 Longyan - 30,000 tonnes

What happened to plant 3? I cant find any news on it.

[woracle] 01/8/2008 09:16

If same trial period as last time, I think mid-August. But there has been the annual storms which have affected Fujian so could be delays.

[jkershaw] 01/8/2008 09:02

Come on CBI, where is the GOOD news on the additional production. Must be due some? Fingers crossed tests have gone well and the taps have been turned on.

[lonrho] 24/7/2008 16:33

Market makers having a laugh on all of £4,000 in trades,one trade was at 10p for £2,500 worth when spread was 13to 15.Guess all you can do is sit back and wait for the company either to recover or go bust.Personally i think it will recover but it may be a lengthy wait.It looks like the market makers were just looking for an excuse to severely drop the price which has happened to similar small cap companies.It is a bit like option money 10p or so for a future option on a quid or you lose the stake.

[jkershaw] 24/7/2008 16:18

Oh dear, another shocking performance, some very low volume causing a huge drop. What is going on here....no news at all and this happens. Another white elephant stock? Seems like a gem, making money and with positive growth & potential but costing me a fortune!

This company needs to release some good news and fast

[mokhan2] 12/7/2008 00:32

Am still waiting for my dividend; everybody else received theirs?

[woracle] 09/7/2008 16:41

I doubt it. It went XD 3 weeks ago, so nothing to do with any payout. Do u really think the people buying here hold for a tiny dividend ? Also, the volumes of sells are tiny..these guys picked up pittance in dividends. I suggest its because CBI has held up relatively well last few weeks and people who bought at lows just wanna keep a profit. Simple reason..a few sellers, no buyers, MMs dont want anything on their books so they drop quick. You are gonna have to get used to it in low liquidity times.. If u believe in the story and nothing has changed, accumulate over a next few years.

[jkershaw] 09/7/2008 15:40

I think the share price has been effected by the payout, collectors selling up

[mokhan2] 02/7/2008 01:52

Don't think the share price will be effected by the payout; any change should have, in theory, taken place on the ex-div date of June 18th.

[jkershaw] 01/7/2008 09:26

CBI Dividend payout coming up....any thoughts on what the share price will do afterwards?