Charter Intl Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 17/11/2006 09:42

I don't use stop losses but i expend a lot of time trying to understand and reassessing a stock if it starts losing me money.You mention your initial foray with Standards in May.The "sell in May" adage has been correct this year BUT actually the summer malaise was very apparent in 2005 too.The FTSE fell 9.2% over the Summer months of 2005 and 2006 was something of a repeat performance.You could either sit it out or get the hell out.I did a bit of both.

Keller joined the party with an excellent trading statement today following hard on the heels of Cookson.Charter next week?

[mindo] 16/11/2006 21:34

Onehandedeconomist,

I really appreciate your well-intentioned and informed advice. I am careful and rather conservative by nature. My portfolio is varied and losing all of it would seem an unlikely event, surely. In any event I am risking only a portion - about 25% of my savings. I accept, of course, that an individual share can go down all the way. That's why I set my stop/loss at about 10% and I fully intend to stick with it. I agree with you about the rising tide. It is perhaps a good thing that happened me with my first attack on the market. I remember the date well: 8/05/06. I had been watching a bank called Standard Chartered. It is a well managed bank, expanding and adventurous, doing good business in the Far East. I decided to buy in at 1475; just 100 of them. On the 9th of May the market bombed and kept going down through the early summer. I didn't know enough to sell them soon enough so I never sold them at all. Today they broke through 1500, still not enough to cover the trading expenses. It was never enough money to hurt anything but my pride but it was a most instructive lesson. Ironically, had I bought that same stock in early July at around 1200 I might have sold them today at 1500 and would have considered myself a very clever chappie. As Robbie says in his NT book, "Timing is everything". So I shall be careful and try to watch my Irish three-letter-word-for-donkey. Cheers.

[onehandeconomist] 16/11/2006 11:01

Mindo - the thread seems to be moving on but just one closing thought. Remember we're in a rising market which, as they say, a rising tide lifts all boats. However things can and do go wrong and not just c/o Mr Bush. Enjoy your investing but play within your limits (we all have them - just some of us ignore them to our cost). So the old hands on this thread may have fond mememories of stocks like GFRD or ABU (or even current positions) but then such successes are also tempered by the Aussie goldmine I bought, turned out to have no gold so became a uranium mine, no uranium, turned into a diary - no milk. All the trading rules in the world didn't help - a 100pct wipe out. Then again there was Eagle Trust (an 80's special) - went up like a sky rocket but an old hand (senior trader at Warburgs) warned me that their mailroom boy had just bought the stock. No matter how good the fundamental (or chartist) story - ask yourself just who is left to buy the stock to keep the price rising? Bailed out to buy that car... Enjoy this trading lark but be careful.

[cockneyrebel] 16/11/2006 10:47

an admission they were wrong imo. They should never have changed their buy to a hold but they did and now look monkeys imo.

Upgrade is just so they don't look completely stupid when the trading statement comes out imo.

CR

[steeplejack] 16/11/2006 10:42

Good work if you can get it.Observe the share price climbing to the mid 900s and then adjust your share price target accordingly!

[cockneyrebel] 16/11/2006 10:08

DJ MARKET TALK: UBS Raises Charter Target; Higher Growth

0941 GMT [Dow Jones] UBS raises Charter's (CHTR.LN) target price to 955p from 855p and raises its assumed mid-term growth rate to 3.5% from 3%. Cites growth opportunities in Charter's emerging market operations for the increase. Although notes its peers are all increasing capacity and going into '07 expects continued demand growth to be satisfied by higher production volumes. Maintains neutral rating. Shares trade -1.5% at 937.5p. (KHO)

[shoee62] 16/11/2006 09:03

looks like Kal57 was spot on

[kal57] 15/11/2006 23:30

chester disagree.Think well see a small pull back tomorrow.

[mindo] 15/11/2006 19:41

Margin, Steeplejack? Is that when you buy shares on borrowed funds?
No, thanks; I like to sleep at night.
TXN is my only US stock. I read up on it and it seemed to have reasonble prospects as well as being near the bottom of a cycle. At least it looked that way to me. Also it's a very big company and would seem unlikely to go bust in the next 6 months or so. Anyhow everything worth reading that I've studied so far emphasises the importance of the stop-loss.
Good old Charter! Such negative thoughts have never entered my greying head.

[chopshs] 15/11/2006 18:59

Charter rights issue was at 85p around March 04. Just realised that now makes it a 10 bagger for us longer term holders! Been a while since i had one of those :-)

[mindo] 15/11/2006 18:19

Thanks for that,Steeplejack.

[steeplejack] 15/11/2006 17:39

I wish you luck in your US trading.Frankly i find the US quite harrowing at times.The whole concept of margin trading is so endemic in America while over here CFDs still have something of a novelty value.I don't know about you mindo but margin trading facilities are implicit in my US account and i didn't even ask for them!!Sector moves can be fierce in the US.

PS....."RIGHTS"............took up the rights.Shareholders have premptive rights.A company can raise money by offering new stock to existing shareholders on a predefined basis...eg.....x company standing on a price of 200p offers stock to existing shareholders on a 1 new share for every 2 held at a discounted price of 180p say.For a period these "rights" trade on the S.E. in nil paid form and can be purchased with a view to being taken up and becoming fully paid. Mind you nowadays placings are only too common and the poor old private client gets ignored!

[mindo] 15/11/2006 17:29

Onehand,

I don't understand "bought the rights".

I am playing for pounds; I think one must, given the high trading costs. I live in Ireland where everything seems to cost more and currency conversion must be factored in as well.

When I retired I received a lump sum gratuity. Normal bank interest doesn't even cover inflation and managed funds have substantial charges and seem inflexible to me. Many people in my position buy them selves a nice new car. I could have but did't. I decided to invest the price of one in the markets. It seemed a better solution and I am happy to make my own mistakes or, better still, not. I have some defensive type stocks like banks which I am happy to leave medium-long term and collect the modest dividend. The trading type stocks (where I am looking for a short term gain) are far more interesting but far more dangerous, I guess. The trend seems up right now and who knows when the next correction will come. And how funny will that seem when it happens? Maybe more so than sitting in traffic jams in that new car I don't have.

[mindo] 15/11/2006 17:11

Well I must be learning a little since I undestand what you guys mean by "Chartist" and "Fundmentalist". I guess I'm trying to learn how to ride either horse. I'm somewhat taken aback by the number and variety of replies I received to my tentative first message. Thank you all sincerely.

Onehand you mention a stock "dumping out on you". I am guessing this means - pardon my ignorance - that a price falls when you believe that it should rise. I had this happen to me about two weeks back. I bought Texas Instruments (TXN) at $30.20, believing they were cheap under 31 and most unlikely to drop. I had overlooked Mr Bush's impending disaster in the mid-term election and the fact that NYSE traditionally favours the Republicans. TXN fell to 28.60 and I was very cross. Then I decided they were an even greater bargain and doubled my stake. My target is $35. Time will show whether I was foolhardy or just lucky.

Meanwhile I am delighted I resisted the temptation to sell Charter around 920. It's flying today and that talk of 1100 does not sound unreasonable.
Happy investing to you all!

[chester] 15/11/2006 16:29

Closing at near highs of the Day, looks good for tomorrow.

[steeplejack] 15/11/2006 15:53

You raise an interesting point mindo when you ask "are their predictive qualities that good?".Intrinsic V.is right in his reply IMHO when he says charts can be.Mind you i'd say that chartists are generally reactive.They respond to signals,they do not design them but thereagain if everyone was a chartist i guess they would design their own destiny.The rather rude comments that appeared over the weekend were- in the crudist manner- dismissing charts as being pictures drawn after the event.A true chartist believes that he can predict the likely direction of a stock by nothing else but the chart,he doesn't even need to know what the company does.Well,if that was unequivocably true,there wouldn't be any need for analysts in the city other than of the technical variety.(Other than a few to assist IPOs and subsequent fund raising) That said charts for me are useful as a compendium of support and resistance,turning points,a pictorial representation of past momentum.So happily all those ol' sayings like "don't catch a falling knife" and "run your profits" and "cut your losses" are all prettily conveyed in picture form.Beats wading through the Report & Accounts.Mind you,most of the holders here are fundamentalists i suspect but will use any analytical tool that will enhance their ability to make money.There's no doubt that chartists move stocks and that cannot be ignored.

[shoee62] 15/11/2006 15:02

Up and sideways looks like up trend, currently seems on new leg

1100 looks like a target from the measured move from the Sept lows up to recept highs 722-940, projected up from 870 swing low.

hope Mamlo is out of his double top short :-/

[bluebelle] 15/11/2006 12:29

mindo - 15 Nov'06 - 11:55 - 1425 of 1426

Totally agree with iv (post 1426) and would only add that what you do also depends on your timescale. Unless your time scale is very short, when a sudden rise often results in a pull back on profit taking, a new high is more often than not a pointer to a further rise, rather than a major correction.

If there is one bit of advice I would give to any novice investor (and which I wish I had always acted on myself) it would be to only buy shares making new highs and avoid those soi disant 'bargains' which are cheap only in as much as they are selling at a much lower price than they use to.

For what it's worth, I am long CHTR and have been for quite some time, regualrly taking out SBs as well : currently as far ahead as March, but looking to extend to June

[intrinsic value] 15/11/2006 12:10

mindo, the short answer is 'no'.
Whereas technical charts do have many predictive qualities, they can also go horribly wrong.
By the same token, fundamentals can also be wrong as they are subjective. Just because we believe a company should be valued at x, does not mean the market will see it the same way.
And when the overrall markets fall, no matter how good the technical charts or the fundamentals, the shareprice of your company will fall too.

The point to remember is that we are all here to make money. There is no other reason. If you are happy with 20% in 8 weeks (great return), then you should take profits.
Most here believe Charter is still cheap compared to its earnings growth, assets and zero debt.
We feel it has a lot higher to go.
But that should not matter.
All that matters is you bank your profits when it hits your target.
Good luck.

[mindo] 15/11/2006 11:55

As a Newbie, I wish I understood these technical charts. Are their predictive qualities that good? I bought this share in September at 795 just after I retired. It is one of my successes along with Aggreko (AGK). I was thinking it might be time to sell now Charter is knocking on the door of 950. 20% in 8 weeks sounds terrific to me. I suspect that £10 will prove a serious barrier for some time but then this share keeps surprising me. Thanks for all these interesting opinions and information on the thread.

[cockneyrebel] 15/11/2006 11:44

Thru a tenner like a knife thru butter if the trading statement is as good as I suspect it will be.

CR

[rochdae] 15/11/2006 11:41

I just love this share!