Chariot Share Discussion Threads

[chestnuts] 16/4/2020 22:05

Invisage

I have my cycle for gold which is turning out to be correct , the price well the jury is out yet ,

As far as the dow goes the people are a sleep and not really woken up and when they do the dow will go down first and then it will inflate, but first one step at a time, we could have a reset and go back on a gold standard of some sort , now the usa could jump the gun and go back on a gold standard before they lose reserve currency status

And you are forgetting that the usa have over 20 million unemployed

[invisage] 16/4/2020 21:53

Chestnuts


The best way to play your scenario of 'banks going bust' etc I think is to buy gold and silver, I think too hard to short DOW...

Currently DOW rallying but Gold and Silver rallying too.....Easier to sleep at night.

DOW can go to 50k but Gold can also go to 50k so you get your 1:1 scenario..

[invisage] 16/4/2020 21:50

Chestnuts

Yes - It is a confidence game....

I plan to do my bit of spending when the economy opens...….I don't want a depression...It is horrible for everyone....

[chestnuts] 16/4/2020 21:48

Invisage

Its alright announcing all this spending but the people are in shock its getting the people to spend what counts.

[invisage] 16/4/2020 21:45

DOW 23730 - Nice call today Ando..

[invisage] 16/4/2020 21:35

Trump going to announce $2tn infrastructure stimulus tonight.....all this money printing will be good for gold and silver...

[chestnuts] 16/4/2020 21:18

Hi Anthony you have a personal message

Could it be gold that takes the banks down


16 April 2020 - Alasdair Macleod article:

"The looming derivative crisis"

...."The bankers’ natural instinct is no longer the pursuit of profit, but fear of losses, and they now have an overwhelming desire to contract outstanding bank credit. In a panic, the Fed cut the Fed funds rate to the zero bound and promised unlimited liquidity support in a desperate attempt to avoid a deflationary spiral. Meanwhile, our swaps traders in gold futures were caught record short, the worst possible position for them given the evolving situation.

The coup de grâce has now come from their banking superiors. Despite the efforts of the Fed to persuade them otherwise, bankers in their lending have become strongly risk-averse and know they will be forced to commit bank credit to failing corporations against their instincts. For this reason, they are taking every opportunity to reduce their balance sheet exposure to other activities. One of the first divisions to suffer is bound to be bullion bank desks running short positions, synthetic in London and actual on Comex, which are wholly inappropriate at a time of massive monetary inflation.

It is this last pressure that has led to an unusual combination of collapsed open interest, shown in the chart above, and rising gold prices, accompanied by a persistent premium of $40 or more over the spot price in London. Clearly, there is good reason for the LBMA and the CME to panic. If the gold price rises much further, there will be bullion desks, managing shorts on Comex and fractionally reserved positions in London, at risk of bankrupting their employers.

The Comex contract, which anchors itself to physical gold through the option of physical delivery at expiry, will face enormous challenges when the active June contract expires at the end of next month. At expiry, the speculators have a chance to obtain delivery. Normally, when the spot price is lower than the future, only the insane would insist on delivery at the higher price. But with very low availability of bullion and price premiums for delayed delivery common, London is being rapidly drained of physical liquidity as well. It is like a good old-fashioned one-two boxing combination: first the Comex market is delivered a body-blow, and then the LBMA gets an uppercut.

Many central banks who have stored their earmarked gold at the Bank of England will be unhappy as well, having leased their gold in the expectation it would stabilise the bullion market. They will not do it again for an interesting reason: gold leasing rates have turned strongly negative, with the two-month rate currently minus 3.7%.[ii] No sensible entity is going to pay a lessor to lease its gold and will want leased gold returned instead. Therefore, the availability of gold for leasing is now cut off and gold already leased will need to be returned if delivered to the lessors, or unencumbered if it remained in the Bank of England’s vaults as is the normal leasing practice.

Gold liquidity in London will then disappear entirely, at which point those with a claim to custodial gold will hope that their property rights remain protected.".......

[invisage] 16/4/2020 21:07

Thanks Ando


When you have some time can you kindly look at the Silver chart please?

Do you think we will see $25 this year? I am long Silver, waiting for Gold to pull back to buy some Gold too.

[andonis] 16/4/2020 20:57

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[andonis] 16/4/2020 20:22

where is my right hand Chest

[andonis] 16/4/2020 20:13

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[invisage] 16/4/2020 13:33

BOOOM ANDO!!!!

[invisage] 16/4/2020 13:15

Let's see what happens at 1.30pm initial claim numbers will come out and that will drive it also Trump will tell the world about easing of lockdown....so that might create some excitement..

[invisage] 16/4/2020 13:14

Thanks Ando

[andonis] 16/4/2020 13:03

Today Dow will rise. today perhaps to 24000 so make money

[andonis] 16/4/2020 12:59

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[invisage] 16/4/2020 12:55

Nice Chart...Thanks Ando

[andonis] 16/4/2020 12:54

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[invisage] 14/4/2020 21:22

chestnuts

You are a very good chartist - I am open minded and am interested in learning from others, we are all trying to read the chart and what the market is doing.


The point I am making is it doesn't matter what I or you think, we are trying to understand what the market is doing and how to trade it to make money.

[chestnuts] 14/4/2020 21:01

If Mr Market keeps telling you why do you keep asking every one.

The banks did not fix any thing in 2008/9 they just delayed the enevitable and changed the rules till they dont have an answer, all the central banks have done is got governments into a situation where their is no way out, if they inflate they could crash the banks as house buyers with massive mortgages go bust, companies who used all their savings up to do buy backs and now most of these companies will go bust if the market continues down hill and interest rates rise which i think they will

[invisage] 14/4/2020 20:58

Nasdaq hit 6772 on March 23rd and down about 31% for the year but is now 8690 and only down 1.9% YTD


Tech lead the rally in the 2009 bull market and seems to be leading the current recovery.


Maybe the rest of the economy will catch up with Tech?

Mr DOW has a way to go as he is still 17% down YTD, DOW is generally a defensive index vs Nasdaq / S&P500

[invisage] 14/4/2020 19:50

Chestnuts

I am open minded to both views - loads of people called the end of the world scenario in 2008 but the central banks proved them wrong with QE, I am letting the market tell me in terms of price direction where it wants to go.

Mr Market is very smart, opinions won't matter. The stock market could disconnect from the real economy due to all the money printing, too hard to tell - price direction will dictate. We can apply as much logic as possible to explain why price action should go a certain way but it is only after time passes it becomes obvious what the market is doing.

The danger of holding a very bearish view is the markets could rally and leave you behind and then it is very hard to make it back, pessimism seems intelligent but over the long term it is optimism that has made the big bucks. The DOW is currently going up due to QE - you have a determined Fed that will keep printing and when all the central banks are doing it everything events out.

Eventually inflation will come from it but stocks are good for inflation.

I am open minded either way and will let Mr market tell me.

[chestnuts] 14/4/2020 18:42

Invisage Anthony

When i come across situations like we have at the moment i ask why would the dow go up, we have at least 14m people unemployed in the usa and this number will grow and grow the banks will come under pressure because alot of companies will go bust, alot of people will lose their homes and hand their keys in so their is not alot inflation pressure at the moment but in a few months time when the kitchen sink will get thrown at the market inflation could take off which might squash the housi=eing market even more as interest rates will rise and put more pressure on the banks, in other words a total mess

And if i can see this it could be this is where the world gets together and as a reset of the currencies like they did in July 1944 at Bretton Woods, probably using gold backed SDR to restore currencies

[invisage] 14/4/2020 07:41

But your long term chart saying 51000 DOW by 2030 Ando and 37,000 DOW by 2025

[andonis] 14/4/2020 07:40

I alway wait for chest