Chariot Share Discussion Threads

[chestnuts] 01/4/2020 18:47

anthony
you have a personal message with my phone number
if you want a chat i am available after 9.30
Do you have wats app


THe government told the banks not to give out the dividends this could be a prelude before the government nationalise them.

Look at the interest rates the UK government are offering some thing is going to go bang

8th April 2020 £2bn 4.75% 2030 gilt


also a 2% 2025 gilt

[andonis] 01/4/2020 16:31

chest do you have skype?

[chestnuts] 01/4/2020 16:31

Invisage 3 days ago you could by a sovereign for £317 now they are £341 and gold as fallen by about £30.

[andonis] 01/4/2020 16:28

The Dow will in my opinion will rise up to 30k so it is a rise

[andonis] 01/4/2020 16:27

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[invisage] 01/4/2020 12:51

I am short American markets....the question is when do I take my shorts off...Depends on how Covid plays out and also what Andonis and Chestnuts say.

The situation is precarious to say the least...…

The US markets are so overvalued...……..I am less concerned with the UK markets but America drags everyone down...

[ant15] 31/3/2020 02:08

Invisage a number of others are pointing out that paper market in precious metals is on the verge of collapse which would tend to support your last post although 30% would be a tremendous drop from here .

[invisage] 29/3/2020 19:52

Gold is in a bull market

Q1 2019: $1,292
Q2 2019: $1,409
Q3 2019: $1,473
Q4:2019: $1,520
Q1 2020: $1,630


I think stocks going lower - maybe another 30% off from here on DOW?

[chestnuts] 29/3/2020 15:56

Invisage

All the qe is doing is bridgeing the gap filled by the lockdown

China might be starting up but its customers are in lockdown and wont be buying any thing for several months and even after Lock down all the people who have been in Lock down will NOT suddenly go buying things they may go down the pub, but most will be scared to come out.

And if you study panademics normally come in waves so we then start all again next winter. And iv covid is indemic then it will probably be the best diet pill ever invented, because it will be diet or die,

[chestnuts] 29/3/2020 15:48

Invisage

Seemingly the ratio on deaths is 70% of the people who die are Obese , how many Americans are there Obese ,
THe usa is about 4 weeks behind every one else so yes i think i am correct the number of people who will be unemployed after this will be in the 3m mark in the UK and USA probably upto 15m

I have a small business so i asked my accountant if i would get any money from the government and he said no,and i bet this will apply to 60% of small business so alot of these will fold , it wont be just for 3 months , there will be a stuttering start in the economy, so i wouldnt be surprised if the government doesnt give every one a present of a £1000 which as to be spent on xyz and within a month just to get the economy going.

[invisage] 29/3/2020 15:35

China has recovered from Corona so it probably won't be as bad as you are suggesting Chestnuts.

I do think Gold is going higher.....

DOW / Gold ratio has been around 1 only once in the very long term
.


What if DOW was to go to 15,000 and Gold 3000? That would be a ratio of 5 and would imply say 30% correction to DOW which seems probable.

All the countries in the world are doing QE so that makes QE meaningless a your not eroding each others purchasing power as such...

[invisage] 29/3/2020 13:34

Ok thanks Chestnuts Where do you see FTSE going if DOW goes to c. 6k ?

[chestnuts] 29/3/2020 09:58

Here is a chart on the dow gold ratio it works beautiful when you work out the ratios it an expanding triangle

to have a gold at 8602 and dow at 6814

Dow to Gold Ratio - 100 Year Historical Chart

hxxps://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-historical-chart

[chestnuts] 29/3/2020 07:52

Inv

USA is not dealing with Covid 19 and will. Suffer more than Italy , with this the Dow will fall further

[invisage] 29/3/2020 00:24

Thanks Chestnuts Any idea where Ando is? His last view was DOW has bottomed at 20k and it will rise nicely.Are you both in disagreement?

[chestnuts] 28/3/2020 22:19

I own gold
I will buy gold companies
I will buy the dow

[invisage] 28/3/2020 21:28

Second question - Gold $8602 - How are you playing this?

Are you buying Physical Gold? Buying a Gold ETF? Buying Gold Mining companies? Maybe GDX?

Are you short DOW?

[invisage] 28/3/2020 21:20

DOW 6814 target and GOLD $8602 and US Oil $10


The DOW has 30 companies (listed below) - Have you looked at the charts of the DOW components Chestnuts?

MSFT and AAPL make up 33% of the DOW, MSFT is big on cloud computing and Apple phones / software etc VISA is big on payment processing etc these are quality companies but still at rich valuations

FAANG stocks will get killed if DOW goes to 6814 - Have you looked at the FAANG & MSFT charts to re-inforce your target for DOW if so what is your target for the FAANG / MSFT stocks?

Maybe Nasdaq a better short if you think FAANG about to get obliterated next few months...



Market Cap. (m) Name
1,138,625.20 Microsoft Corp
1,083,981.40 Apple Inc
359,014.00 Visa Inc
325,884.90 Johnson & Johnson
310,502.30 Walmart Inc
279,826.70 JPMorgan Chase & Co
272,132.40 Procter & Gamble Co
229,322.80 UnitedHealth Group Inc
223,986.50 Intel Corp
218,592.00 Verizon Communications Inc
205,083.30 Home Depot Inc (The)
183,929.30 Coca Cola Co (The)
181,554.20 Merck & Co Inc
174,693.50 Walt Disney Co (The)
171,853.70 Pfizer Inc
164,631.00 Cisco Systems Inc
156,216.40 Exxon Mobil Corp
129,807.40 Chevron Corp
129,790.00 Nike Inc
122,188.30 McDonalds Corp
95,859.20 International Business Machines Corp
91,458.60 Boeing Co (The)
84,050.10 United Technologies Corp
76,521.50 3M Co
71,376.30 American Express Co
57,763.90 Caterpillar Inc
54,442.90 Goldman Sachs Group Inc
38,977.90 Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc
25,464.20 Travelers Companies Inc (The )
21,134.30 Dow Inc

[chestnuts] 28/3/2020 21:17

Not a bad idea if i am correct lots of companies are going to go bust but the big boys will survive and may go down alot lower than any of expect

[invisage] 28/3/2020 20:57

Thanks Chestnuts....All v scary stuff....


I have been thinking of loading up on RDSB and BP.

[chestnuts] 28/3/2020 19:52

USA oil could go as low as $10, will it bounce yes but not as quick as people think it will probably take 2 to 3 yrs to get rid of the oil glut

[invisage] 28/3/2020 17:42

What are your views on Brent Oil Chestnuts? Do you think we will bottom out soon and if so do you expect Oil to rise like Gold? Can Brent get back to $60-70 in the next 6 months?

Thanks