Chariot Share Discussion Threads

[newswseller] 10/12/2012 21:02

Messed my maths up, 0.29% holding would be £26.1m

[triples] 10/12/2012 20:44

Jimmy is a perpetual optimist, imho. They can be very beguiling. Evenso, there is lots of opportunity here with Chariot.

[cherisher] 10/12/2012 20:30

jimmy sounds like a serial ramper. :-) hopefully, there is some truth in it.

[hedgebetter] 10/12/2012 20:09

You will be declaring 3% soon newseller....!

I am in for the multi year time frame....

[newswseller] 10/12/2012 20:00

I think the wise move here for any new potential holder is to buy as cheap as possible, i.e. when OAM have closed their short and or we have had a holding RNS from BG (although expect they are out already, just no urgency to tell Char, like latest RNS). Then hold for the farm out RNS and Resource update, then sell half on rise up prior to TD (exit price around 60p)

[lanaken] 10/12/2012 19:37

Log,

The CoS per well look to be in the range +/- 25%.

Four consecutive failures is something like (3/4) to the power 4.

That's 81/256.

Yep the wells are expensive and there may be 10+ wells drilled in Namibia before big oil is hit. If CHAR hits anywhere in the next couple of years this will be a ten bagger plus. Maybe a whole lot more.

It's almost virgin territory and big oil and big bucks to drill so not for the faint hearted.

Come back in two years time and I won't be here;-)

FOGL drilled on 2D seismic. Now that's making the possible almost impossible.

repo

[fairenough11] 10/12/2012 19:15

has this guy ever heard of cairn,tullow?

big oil is all overxthis namibian acreage.why do you think that is?

I expect a large discovery,possibly in 2013,in namibia.Char are very well placed.

[triples] 10/12/2012 19:14

With luck, there may be 4, 5 or 6 wells drilled offshore Namibia before CHAR have to drill again. Any success with any one of those 4, 5 or 6 wells and CHAR won't be so worried about funding its exploration.

When is the optimum time for Chariot to farm out the central blocks? Now, before any HRT drilling, or after HRT have completed 1, 2 or 3 wells? Safe option is before any HRT drill results.

[hedgebetter] 10/12/2012 19:02

loglorry - there have been plenty of small oil e&p companies - some have become very large oil e&p companies. That's why there chariot are in the game.

Looking forward to the positive RNS's coming our way...

[loglorry1] 10/12/2012 18:53

Ummm sorry to poop on the party but although while I agree with the upside here I don't think I'm with you on these numbers.

The problem is that I don't think even with good 3D and all the rest of it we are going to get much chance of the sort of multi-billion barrel gushers you are talking about in more than about 1:10. This seems pretty optimistic too. It could well the the case they need another 8-10 wells before they come up with something.

The problem is that CHAR is now 2 wells in and the drilling is certainly not cheap. So if they farm-out another well they may not get a completely free carry. If they do then that's great but if we get another non-commercial result which is likely who is going to keep stumping up these huge drilling costs?

There is still a decent chance they will find something in another two drills or so but generally speaking it could be something which is commercial but needs more appraisal. Again huge drilling costs so more farm-ins and dilution or capital spend.

The upside is there but they'll need to get something in the next 2-3 drills, get the drills farmed out very constructively and even then they'll probably end up having to give up quite a bit for appraisal wells etc.

I have a small position here but ISTM that this sort of drilling (rather like FOGL) is for the big boys and CHAR is just too small.

Log

[hedgebetter] 10/12/2012 18:38

I agree Lanaken. 0.5% and rising...

[lanaken] 10/12/2012 18:25

I don't think that there's very much doubt that the central blocks have several multiple billion barrel prospects and that there is around 2 in 3 chance that at least one of the four will come off.

Even if CHAR has to farm down several times before they hit and retain just 15-20% at the time of success 400-500mm bbl net to CHAR at $8-9 a barrel is $16-$22.5 a share. That's a tenner or more.

An early hit could, as Jimmy points out, be worth several times that because it could be substantially bigger with a much higher percentage stake carried.

We won't know too much until HRT blocks are farmed out, but reading between the lines it's not that difficult to see what might be coming.

Mr Market is struggling and the opportunity here is to build up a big stake and derisk it once he wises up. Free carries on big potential is the way big money is made in this sector.

repo

[fairenough11] 10/12/2012 16:41

Only £45 a share?:-)))))))))))))

I'm RICH------Potentially:-)

[hedgebetter] 10/12/2012 14:15

I agree. Does anyone know any of the Senior guys emails?

[lanaken] 10/12/2012 13:54

It's all gone so quiet.

Perfect time to buy, imv.

repo

[hedgebetter] 10/12/2012 13:19

We are range bound. Ranges do not last forever - obviously. So the question is where will the break out be? Statistically in a market that has bottomed - it will be to the upside, and where it is frothy to the downside. High chance this will break to the upside given the price crashed, its sitting on a chunk of cash, no debt, and the assets are valued at zero. Just waiting on some news...in the meantime...

Buy when there is blood in the streets - Rothschild (which JP Morgan, Warren Buffet et al quoted a lot)

[tara7] 09/12/2012 16:35

Thanks for that, I think a fiver might be near


Thanks.

[andonis] 09/12/2012 12:22

195p is possible...

[tara7] 08/12/2012 14:03

Would you like to look at the PTO chart over the last year.

Not into charts, but is looks like it is going one way.

UP.