Chaarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[2pablo] 23/6/2021 22:45

Sent to gestalt85 and max244

[2pablo] 23/6/2021 20:37

Casual, have you access to the broker notes?

[crapshoot2] 23/6/2021 19:34

Yes please lindsay@ Millichope.com

[2pablo] 22/6/2021 20:00

I got a reply from Patrick in which he’s sent two new broker notes from Canaccord and Panmure which he hopes make things clearer.

Not sure how to post those notes on here which came as attachments to my email.

Are you casual47crnd etc still for email?

I could forward this email to anyone who wants the notes if you give your email address.

[casual47] 22/6/2021 17:14

It may be a badly worded RNS but would have been good if they had explained what Chaarat gets in return for the $13.5m worth of shares.

If it is a "bonus" to strengthen the partnership - why is it needed? Ciftay are a supplier. Chaarat pays, they supply. If they don't do a good job or charge competitive prices then Chaarat can hire someone else.

Is it in lieu of cash after the first $20m worth of work has been paid in cash? If so that is totally not clear from the text.

Why would "free shares" make them a strategic investor compared to a JV arrangement?

With a JV they share the profit and the risk. "Free shares" that they can sell within months are not the same.

[2pablo] 22/6/2021 09:47

I think I’ll ask Artem a few questions re Ciftay.

You do seem pretty pessimistic, I thought debt funding was for zero dilution not with warrants attached.

You originally said ‘no lock in’ which was untrue, now you’re saying minimal lock-in which I don’t agree with either

[casual47] 21/6/2021 23:18

Pamir is just the Kyrgyz branch of Ciftay. Nothing has changed there - they have worked with Pamir from the beginning.

The cost isn't more ("the construction contract works attributable to Çiftay have been reduced compared to the 2019 bankable feasibility study.") so why would they give them more cash?

The only reason I can see is to sugar-coat the risk to Ciftay for their involvement in the project.

The lock-in periods are not worth much: first tranch lock-in is just until January 2022. Second tranche of 2023 lock-in is on gold pour, which is end of 2023 (at current projected timelines).

So from issuance of shares to end of lock-in is just a few months.

They may very well get funding, the question is: at what cost (dilution).

At the current shareprice Ciftay would have ~75m shares so quite chunky.

Given the risks involved there very well may be a huge number of warrants involved with any debt.

Until all this is cleared up it is impossible to make a judgement here on shareprice potential. The shares in issue could easily exceed 1 billion shares by the time they start production.

[2pablo] 21/6/2021 21:41

Mr A has 1,613,000 left in his 10m waiver still to buy

Ciftay were initially meant to invest (with their work)$31.5m in March 2019.

Not sure how far that amount of work has progressed. Also recently,”Chaarat Gold has engaged Pamir Mining, a designated entity of Çiftay Inşaat (“Çiftay”;) as its mining and construction earthworks contractors.” Maybe that involves more money to be paid to Ciftay?

[2pablo] 21/6/2021 21:39

Mr A has 1,613,000 left in his 10m waiver still to buy

Ciftay were initially meant to invest (with their work)$31.5m in March 2019.

Not sure how far that amount of work has progressed. Also recently,”Chaarat Gold has engaged Pamir Mining, a designated entity of Çiftay Inşaat (“Çiftay”;) as its mining and construction earthworks contractors.” Maybe that involves more money to be paid to Ciftay?

[2pablo] 21/6/2021 20:38

“
The shares are going on vwap terms so no premium. Also no lock-in”.

Yep, no premium paid but plenty of lock-in terms announced.

Not sure why we’re giving Ciftay more money presumably for more work than originally agreed.

Admittedly, Martin and Artem aren’t going to say “here’s our latest fudge ‘cause we’re in a bit of a pickle” but this deal does have merit. Why are we putting things dependent on getting the funding if we’re not confident? Why do we say funding hopefully mid-2021 again?Could not making our structure simplified imply other possibilities might be on the cards? Sale or going Private

[larryparker] 21/6/2021 20:17

As First gold in Tulkubash isn't forecast until 2023, I would expect to start fazing money back in around the 10/12p range, where the risk may be worth it, in the meantime I shall carry on riding the Kodal mining wave, but as good as that is, African Government issues still cause slight anxiety. Good luck all.

[casual47] 21/6/2021 18:28

Waiver is basically done. Maybe a couple of thousand /10k shares left to buy.

I don't think it is a good deal - they are paying Ciftay up to $25m cash for the work done and on top of that they will also issue "milestone" bonus shares to them valued at $17.3m.

In total it will be a package of up to $42.3m in cash and shares for Ciftay, so $10m more than the $31.5m initially agreed via the JV deal.

The shares are going on vwap terms so no premium. Also no lock-in.

With all the additional new risks (Japarov, Centerra, Azerbajian) there is now no way for private investors to really evaluate the shareprice (is 25p "cheap" or expensive?) until everything comes out in the wash: e.g. the debt package may come with discounted warrants, the $20m convertible loan notes at 36p now seem more likely to either be repaid (via more debt?) or rolled into new loan notes possibly at a lower conversion point.

There is a possibility that the potential share overhang here will depress the share price for some time to come.

[2pablo] 21/6/2021 15:45

It’s a complicated announcement today but I think it’s extremely positive. Everything eventually hinges on getting our debt funding over the line but they keep mentioning it is close and mid-2021 is again mentioned.

The Centerra dispute is complicating matters greatly and it’s not clear how that will end.

I’m confident, Martin Anderrson is confident, today’s share price fall hopefully will be shortly reversed. Not sure how many more Martin A can still purchase under his waiver, that’s where we need Casual

[larryparker] 21/6/2021 10:21

As I stated in a previous post that I pulled out with smallish loss. Whilst Chaarat is very investable, I don't think many investors want there money tied up in Kyrgyzstan, especially when Japarov is in power, the situation with Kumtor has taken away all trust.

[larryparker] 21/6/2021 10:04

I think a couple of significant lines in this are. (Whilst work streams are advancing, the debt financing is subject to market conditions and the current situation with regards to the KUMTOR MINE in the Kyrgyz Republic May defer the financing process.The company continues to receive ongoing support from the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic including being asked to attend the recent Kyrgyz-Turkish forum along with Ciftay.I don't think the market is buying into this, as it is still built around trust of the Kyrgyz Government and Kumtor

[burtond1] 17/6/2021 09:37

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[larryparker] 10/6/2021 18:33

Well I am out, took a bit of a loss, but I can see this going only one way, unless the Kyrgyz Government is casted out, or Chaarat seek Russian state debt financing, or Mr A has a huge plan B, and abandons Tulkubdash. What I cannot work out is, with all the growing negativity surrounding Kyrgyzstan the Sp creeps up everyday, is it just Labro sifting in mr As money?. Enjoyed the thread, and have learned a lot from Pabs and casual, I will be keeping an eye on the situation and hopefully be back in a couple of years. Good luck guys.

[juju44] 10/6/2021 10:37

They promised much but couldnt deliver . I held too but ditched when the excuses and waffle got to be too much

[fishhead1] 10/6/2021 10:26

After holding this share for years I divested most of my holding 6 months ago, with the final section going as the Kumptor news was breaking.

I may be proved to be incorrect financially, but there is just no way I could feel confident holding this until coming into production, which I can't see being any time soon.

[casual47] 09/6/2021 11:43

The articles I read at the time have Chaarat quoted as saying they will fight it.

It is a matter of opinion of course but imo the trend and direction of travel is clear: the focus is on using the stick rather than the carrot to extract as much money as they can from companies.

Imo this court judgement would not have happened under the previous president.

Recall also the law that was passed recently that all new major mining projects now must be 100% owned by the state.

There are more changes afoot which will further erode confidence, article below. This is really more than just Kumtor.