Chaarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 04/7/2020 13:31

Pabs, a profit is a profit. Best to take the emotion out and set sell targets at the start without changing your mind afterward - no moving goalposts.

[jc2706] 04/7/2020 09:57

Not really. I have bigger positions in BMN, SHG and ALTN. The former was a star performer and I became very overweight there so reduced a fair amount. The latter has been the star performer of late whilst SHG ticks along. I also have decent positions in AAU and OSU (Canada) which are doing OK.

[2pablo] 04/7/2020 09:41

Incredible run lately for my pf particularly from CGH and my Ozzie goldie CAI.

Should I be booking these gains?

Surely Casual and JC, you’re pf’s are getting heavily loaded on CGH?

Must have a look at that Presentation Casual, thanks.

Difficult to get one’s head around so many loans, refinancing, etc. Does seem a bit like ‘spinning plates’ sometimes.

We haven’t had any bad news(touch wood) for ages now and Artem does seem really good at managing any. I mean 6-month Covid delay went without a murmur against our share price Sure Dekel would have announced a ‘disaster̵7;.

[casual47] 03/7/2020 18:55

They are targeting $200m EBITDA and 450k oz pa by 2026

That is:

11x the EBITDA they currently have
8x the ounces they currently produce pa

[casual47] 03/7/2020 18:02

New presentation online:



Some things I noted:

1. Kapan bank debt is now $30m
2. $19.4m investor loan "Expected to be refinanced to 2023" (could this be via $20m convertible QRC loan facility?)
3. Total debt as of 2 July $66.68m
4. $7m Labro undrawn facility available
5. East Flank in Kapan potential to increase "throughput by approx. 30% and EBITDA by approx. 50% from H2 2022"

[casual47] 03/7/2020 12:27

Actually 5% might have been to do with the then issued share capital:

12,564,874 plus 6,282,437 is 18,847,311

That is 5% of 376,946,220 which could have been the issued share capital at the time (before Kapan was added)

[casual47] 03/7/2020 12:23

Another reason why I think this M&A is close to Artem is because at the time his side-kick from ACG was also given an incentive. I think it was 2/3s Artem and 1/3 the other guy. As the other guy left in May 2019 his incentive lapsed.

So 5% of the total incentive would bring us closer to $200m

[casual47] 03/7/2020 12:09

Have wondered how they arrived at the number of the shares.

E.g. could it be a rough calculation of something like "5% of deal value"?

5% would mean deal value of ~$125m (based on price per share of ~40p)

[jc2706] 03/7/2020 07:19

I don't think so. I would prefer closing what is clearly a transformative deal.

[2pablo] 02/7/2020 21:18

So, better for us if he just misses the Jul 30 deadline.

Would be suspiciously convenient if he does close something this month

[casual47] 02/7/2020 14:58

Yes, "close" as in Kapan deal announcement back in August or whenever of 2018 or close as in January 2019.

[jc2706] 02/7/2020 14:29

As is always the case with CGH, never say never but it does seem unlikely that they could close such a transaction without us hearing of it before now. Of course, the term 'close' may be interpreted.

[casual47] 02/7/2020 13:59

At 40p that's a cool $6.3m bonus

[casual47] 02/7/2020 13:58

Go on, Artem, you can do it!

Contingent incentive fee arrangement
Mr Volynets benefits from a contingent incentive fee arrangement in relation to one potential and future M&A transaction, subject to such transaction closing prior to 30 July 2020, after which date such arrangement expires for nil consideration. Should such transaction close by 30 July 2020, Mr Volynets will be awarded 12,564,874 Ordinary Shares, subject to a clawback for 12 months following completion in the event of him ceasing to be employed by the Group within this period. Mr Volynets would not be a participating board member, or carry a vote, on this future and potential M&A transaction.

[casual47] 02/7/2020 12:42

Last year there was an operational update on the 29th of June which also included a Kapan resource update.

[casual47] 02/7/2020 12:38

No holding RNS so far, so whoever drove the price from 28p to a closing UT of 40.50p yesterday - it wasn't Labro.

[casual47] 01/7/2020 18:22

As far as I can gather the senior lenders (Orion, Osisko, RCF) have now taken over Lydian.

The news about security and police presence at Amulsar yesterday is, as I understand it, to do with the hiring of a new security company.

The interesting thing is that there seems to be assistance from the police now.

New article on it today:

[jc2706] 01/7/2020 17:41

9 year high. Volume still pretty low so not exactly on the radar yet.

[wilmot] 01/7/2020 17:07

A new recent years closing high. Shhhhhh.

[2pablo] 01/7/2020 16:56

Large wads of money coming our way - lovely relentless upwards price movement !

[casual47] 30/6/2020 16:56

Looks like the Armenian government has decided it wants to step in:

"Large number of Armenia police officers, security guards are on road leading to Amulsar gold mine"

[casual47] 27/6/2020 12:52

Yes, very limited. For the first two hours or so transactions had to be pushed via NEX which I believe is a sign of liquidity issues (the spread there is much wider so you get penalised for having to transact via that secondary market)

[jc2706] 27/6/2020 11:00

The buying has been limited (selling too) and yet the price moved substantially which suggests a very tight market. If someone other than Martin has decided to buy in it is likely to break 40p, although I would suspect a back test. Get through that and it's blue sky.

[casual47] 26/6/2020 20:05

While covid has put a spanner in the works in term of delays I think the various longer term variables are more than enough to make the case for project finance to happen given the long term likelihood of:

Continued depressed fuel prices (huge factor in capex)

Continued strength of gold

Continued deprecation/weakness of Kyrgyz currency (also e.g. Turkish, Kaz and ZA currencies where some of the suppliers will be based)

Continued weakness in the economy meaning lower prices of e.g. crushing circuit/ADR?

(This goes for all gold miners, which is why I expect a proper sector wide gold miner bull run - which I maintain we are not in yet)