Chaarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 18/8/2020 11:36

Not sure what prevented Labro from making purchases earlier on but if they had timed it to coincide with the POG move from 1800 through to 2000+ then they could easily have driven the shareprice well into the 40s and we might have seen a good chunk of new retail investors hop on board too, making the share price support a lot more sustainable as new hands replaced older hands at higher price points.

Seems a wasted opportunity.

[casual47] 18/8/2020 11:17

If there's no further Labro buys then the interims could be due any time from September 10th onwards. Last year they were on the 13th.

So, seems unlikely we will see further Labro buys on the current waiver for 3m shares.

Total shares bought: 322,773 (10.57% of the 3m allowed)
Average price paid: 35.76
Highest price paid: 39.25p

[juju44] 17/8/2020 16:46

Almost no progress since it came out of suspension 18 months ago and thats in biggest gold bull market ever . The big team wasn't so big after all . Benbow a dodo and Dusty a dinosaur . Artem couldnt get the deals and must be embarassed about his running horse - he never mentions it now . Bottom line is they have failed to deliver

[sparkyboy1] 15/8/2020 14:32

Casual as I wanted the money yesterday I sold 100k ISA shares though quote excute and 50K personal though barclays and 100k same way though Sipp Hargreaves Lansdown.
I have tryed buying and selling at set prices limit orders but I don't have much luck so that was the best way of getting my money before the market closed as I was reinvesteding.
Its been really subdude at Cgh of late we all get are information through you/jc/Pablo with gold prices at all time high.
If it was not for this chat room I think I would have sold up at a very descent profit, but I really do think this share will get to £ I just think we need to hear more from the board

[casual47] 15/8/2020 12:59

In the past, whenever I traded some of my Chaarat shares, I quite often managed to get that day's highest transaction price for my sale (so it showed as a buy). I just put in a limit order for a set price above which it can execute and a set expiry date. Of course, it helps if you are not too fussed about when or if it executes.

[casual47] 15/8/2020 12:55

Sparky, how do you sell your shares?

Do you do e.g. "quote & execute" orders executed immediately or do you use e.g. limit orders which can be filled within a certain time period?

With Chaarat it may be more effective to set up orders with smaller volumes (ideally e.g. 15k) and to set them as limit orders so that they can be filled more easily by an AT buyer at a higher price.

[sparkyboy1] 15/8/2020 12:48

Pablo it does not take much to bring this share down if it was my 3 trads it has cost me.
So by me selling them it dropped the rest of my holding by over £30000 in the short term.
Hopefully when I buy them shares back will the share price go back up 6.5% -?
This share needs some exciting news as we seem to bounce between 30 and 39p
Good luck all

[casual47] 15/8/2020 10:48

Apart from Covid all those imponderables (gold price, politics, financing) are not new.

Up to you to make a judgement on these things and place your bets accordingly.

Personally, I think they came pretty close with financing, before Covid struck. I believe they basically have the nod from the EBRD which would mean they need to fill about $40m, which is a lot more achievable than finding $78m.

I can't see gold "go off the boil", in my opinion it hasn't even started to boil yet. I'm prepared for a pullback but I'm not worried about it.

Kyrgyz politics are a risk but assuming you invest in other gold miners then how is this risk different from miners in Kazakhstan, Egypt, Mali, etc? The Kyrgyz are still traumatised by their 2010 revolution. They have made significant leaps forward e.g. they are one of the only developing countries to have appointed a business ombudsman (a former British ambassador to Kyrgyzstan no less). They have wrangled with Centerra but in the end it was all mouth and no trousers. If Centerra had been in Kazakhstan they would long ago have lost their investment, imo.

Covid...who knows. They won't need to step up a gear much until summer 2021 with construction, assuming they get the go-ahead. Covid may still be rampant by then but if countries are still doing lockdowns then I think the problems for all of us will be far, far bigger.

[crapshoot2] 15/8/2020 10:16

OK accepting that we are in this for Kyrgizstan, the trouble is that visibility of when we get into production there is very poor. We don't really know what if anything they have been able to achieve this summer, Covid is not going away any time soon and the country's health service is I imagine. not very robust. Why should it be any better next summer? Then there are other imponderables such as the political situation. They seem to be well in with this lot but two years is a long time and that could change. Then despite several references to imminent financing being tied up, the date keeps being pushed back. It is at best going to be a long haul and maybe the gold price will be off the boil by then

[sparkyboy1] 14/8/2020 23:54

i got approx 36.5 2 x sells of 100000 & 1 x 50000

[sparkyboy1] 14/8/2020 23:50

pablo i had to sell part of my holdings today 250000 shares as there is a share i fancy big time (SNG) which i am in already in, it is waiting news very soon if it goes good i will be buying them back soon i hope

[2pablo] 14/8/2020 22:44

I've been surprised how HUM has taken so long to re-rate since it went into production a couple of years back. The free cash flow it is now generating I think justifies a considerably higher share price and I think Kapan should give us more of a lift. Wasn't aware that HUM had that much exploration potential, Casual.

With PoG so high we are surely generating so much more cash than at $1550 an oz levels.

Not sure how our overnight share price has plummeted to 34.8p when zero trades were at that level or below, but that is our mid-price???

Mr A has certainly done very little with his waiver again. I've also noticed we do so little volume each Friday. Seems quite regularly very low even zero on a Friday

[jc2706] 14/8/2020 16:25

These shares tend to have brief periods of strong rises followed by long periods of very little. The price rose from 6p on the back of Mr A's buying but to get the next hike does require Tulkubash progress. Get that and you will probably find that it outperforms most other gold miners for a time.

[casual47] 14/8/2020 15:34

Chaarat is mainly a binary bet on the odds of the Kyrgyz assets going into production and your investment strategy should be based on that.

Even in the broker valuations Kapan only accounts for about 30% of the broker target. If Tulkubash goes into production the %value contribution of Kapan could eventually be dwarfed into low teens or maybe even single digits on an NPV basis.

There's some added M&A frisson based on the calibre of execs (Mr A, Artem) but the main driver of value is the Kyrgyz assets.

While the gold price increase has made the Kyrgyz assets more valuable there is also, potentially, more risk.

It's unrealistic to expect Chaarat to follow the same rerate you see others get.

A good comparison is HUM. It's also had limited joy from the gold price increase. The bulk of its potential is in its exploration assets.

[crapshoot2] 14/8/2020 15:17

I must say I am developing a bit of sympathy with Juju. What kind of a share is it that only seems to rise when the chairman is buying. Gold at $2,000 or thereabouts and unlike a good many miners Charaat seems completely stuck and has completely failed so far to develop any speculative momentum. $43 seems a million miles away. In fact if it gets to $39 I suspect lots of fed up holders will unload. I t think that with Tulkubash a minimum two years away this is regarded as just an investment in Kapan. Repeated deferrals of any hard news on financing isn't helping either.

[casual47] 14/8/2020 14:24

43p would still leave a healthy ~35% increase to share price Angel's new 58p target.

[casual47] 14/8/2020 13:48

With gold above $1800/oz I think Chaarat could easily support a nudge to 42-44p (the chart looks made for it) and have that remain a stable gravitational area this side of Tulku news.

Especially with the prospect of really good record-beating financials for H1.

If Labro don't help tip the balance towards that target then I can only assume they need it to stay at 36-38p for some reason, e.g. perhaps to recruit IIs.

[jc2706] 14/8/2020 13:42

Very true. You see this all the time with these sort of companies and share buy backs. People just sell into buying.

[casual47] 14/8/2020 13:39

Clearly I'd rather have the waiver than not while we are still waiting for Tulku finance.

I do wonder if an unfortunate flipside to its support at 36-38p is that it effectively makes 36-38p a much stronger resistance point than it otherwise would be also.

Iow, by reducing volatility on the downside it is also dampening volatility on the upside.

[casual47] 14/8/2020 13:06

JC, it's a two-edged sword. On the one hand, it gives us PIs some degree of "insurance" that no matter how far the share price drops the shareprice is likely to gravitate back to 36-38p.

However, on the other hand it completely destroys any incentive for PIs to buy shares at higher price points and even encourages us to trade the shares: buy the dips, sell at 36-38p, rinse and repeat.

If Mr. A doesn't want to buy his shares at averages greater than 38p then why should we?

[jc2706] 14/8/2020 13:00

Because up to now it has been 'operation share support'. If he wants to create that kind of environment it needs to be 'operation share pump'. But I don't think that would work in isolation. One buyer, even Mr A., cannot sustain a share price rise and people are just as likely to sell into it. This is one of the reasons I prefer dividends to share buy backs.

[casual47] 14/8/2020 12:49

The whole waiver thing is designed to create a Pavlovian response with PIs but for it to keep being effective they need to match expectation. The last waiver went completely unused and got "renewed" to end of August. If all they manage now is a measly 300k shares out of a 3m waiver limit then why would anyone pay much attention the next time they are given a waiver? Law of diminishing returns etc.

[casual47] 14/8/2020 12:46

The Labro waiver thing has been a bit of a damp squib so far.

Still some hope that before the end of month (and waiver deadline/interim closed period) we'll get a beefy bit of news followed by a frantic few days of intense share buying but they're running out of time.