Chaarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 06/5/2020 14:22

Interesting comments from the Armenian PM when asked why he fired the environmental minister:



"there come stages when it is necessary to make decisions,"

"I believe that we are able to do the impossible, as we have done the impossible in 2018, we have done the impossible in 2019, too, but we must do the more impossible in 2020."

What requires more of a decision than the ongoing saga of Amulsar? And given the environmental minister's own beliefs what seems more likely to require his dismissal than having to make a positive decision re. a deal to let the Amulsar mine continue?

[casual47] 06/5/2020 14:19

The Chaarat board is very familiar with Amulsar. E.g. one of its directors used to be the chairman of Lydian international.....

[manxbean] 06/5/2020 14:15

Thanks Casual, I always appreciate your postings and thoughts. Strikes me that if they can get Amulsar right it could be transformative, I'm just wary of the local issues but then again I would have thought the board has gone into this eyes wide open. Such a deal should give us some much needed publicity and hopefully draw some attention to CGH!

[casual47] 06/5/2020 14:11

Like i posted yesterday "may be nothing, may be something"....

Iravunq: Amulsar gold mine transaction 'agreed' with Armenian government
10:33 • 06.05.20

PRESS DIGEST
Lydian International has reportedly agreed with the Armenian Government on plans for selling the Amulsar gold mine located in the country's southern regions.

Citing sources close to the authorities, the paper says that Environment Minister Erik Grigoryan dismissal from office late on Tuesday was linked to that very transaction.

[2pablo] 06/5/2020 14:11

This Amulsar beginning to sound almost as problematical as Kumptor which we might have been able to handle but it was a leap too far imo

[2pablo] 06/5/2020 14:06

Waiver ends on 31st May for 3m shares and MA hasn’t gone into it once yet?!?!

Perhaps he’s closed out still with an Aquisition as, indeed, he has been closed out much of the time since Feb 24th

[casual47] 06/5/2020 13:59

I wonder if buying Amulsar could be an opportunity (maybe even makes it a requirement) for a second listing on TSX?

[casual47] 06/5/2020 13:45

If Chaarat is involved then I cannot see them taking on much if any debt that is not confined to debt secured on the Amulsar asset.

There may be a small component of e.g. loan notes against the Group and a small amount of cash or even placing shares but I don't think they can afford to take on more risk than that imo.

This is why I think the existing lenders would, by necessity rather than desire perhaps, remain on board and just reassign their debt against Chaarat and have it secured against Amulsar.

It's either that or they find someone willing to hand over $400m for a full buyout....unlikely imo.

International arbitration would be the last resort for the lenders, if all other options fail.

[casual47] 06/5/2020 12:57

I doubt that Lydian can resume business themselves, too much has happened now. I don't think the Armenian government wants them back. I don't think the local people want them back and I think it is likely that the lenders may want to get rid of them also as they have shown to be a disaster. Imo dyor etc.

They seem to me to have a pretty good case to win in an international arbitration court and appear to have financial backing to get funding for that if needed - according to the court documents they have now run out of money but have been given a loan to continue until early July so that they can sort things out. So that is the "stick" with which to beat the government, if needed. The carrot being a friendly new operator to continue the mine.

The local Armenian employees have also started to take the government to court for loss of earnings. Recently they were given permission by a court to do so.

So whichever way you look at it this thing is a big mess, for the government also.

So to me the most obvious solution is that a deal will be done with full government backing and with a new operator.

Imo it would take months, not years, to get to first gold pour.

Chaarat appear to be the best candidate to become the new operator: they have demonstrated a turnaround in Kapan, they have put a huge amount of focus on ESG and community outreach and I think they are the only outfit already in Armenia with a clean sheet. Unless there is a full buyout I also think the existing lenders would want the new owner to be listed on a stock exchange in the West.

I don't think QRC is involved, at this stage at least. I also don't think that the EBRD will be necessarily involved beyond their existing tiny stake, although they have been lobbying hard for Amulsar to be sorted. I don't think that much new money is needed as the existing lenders are imo most likely to still be involved as I doubt anyone would stump up hundreds of millions to bail them out in a full buyout. So the only new money needed could be to finish the mine (order of tens of millions, less than $50m imo).

[manxbean] 06/5/2020 12:25

Casual, can I defer to your expert knowledge and ask your view on Amulsar? Joining the dots it appears that CGH are the buyer with possible links to Queens Road Capital and obviously the tie up to Warren Gilman. EBRD in the background with Amulsar also and the apparent courting of the EBRD recently. Local issues are clearly there but it sounds like the mine is fairly close to production also?

[manxbean] 05/5/2020 22:01

hxxps://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/armenia-under-pressure-from-uk-and-us-over-mining-dispute-says-eu-report/

In December 2019, Lydian filed for a court-protected restructuring process in Canada. Court filings for the company, which was delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange in January this year, state that it is currently ‘advancing discussions with a potential purchaser’ for the mine, and continuing dialogue with the Armenian government ‘to see whether an agreement can be reached regarding access to the Amulsar Project’.

[2pablo] 05/5/2020 15:52

Sounds very good, there's always somebody you need to get out of the way, or grease the wheels for

[casual47] 05/5/2020 15:21

May be nothing, may be something:

Armenian PM fired his minister for the environment earlier today.

He was not in favour of Lydian's Amulsar mine. In fact, he seems to be pretty much against mining altogether...

As I understand it (from various online papers via Google translate), he's the minister who delayed the Amulsar project by claiming the environmental reports by independent parties weren't thorough enough (I believe that was thrown out of court later)

See his views from last year here:

[casual47] 04/5/2020 12:08

The updated significant shareholders list has no IIs below 3% now even though before they listed UBS, Polymetal etc, which should still have more than 2%.

[casual47] 04/5/2020 12:03

A lot of the nastiness was there before Twitter, especially in matters political.

Unfortunately, everything is political now.

[jc2706] 04/5/2020 10:39

True. But they would still be tweeting vitriolic comments. The last couple of months have brought home just what a platform for hideous viewpoints Twitter is.

[casual47] 03/5/2020 23:12

Like Boris, he's a journalist by trade.

[casual47] 03/5/2020 23:02

JC, the decision is a little easier for them with only 35 Covid-related deaths so far....(Kyrgyz: 10).

One of the few situations where it pays to be a middle-of-nowhere backwater rather than a major hub of international trade and tourism.

[jc2706] 03/5/2020 22:24

If that was the UK government, there would be people tweeting about 'blood on their hands' and 'murderers'. Interesting how perspectives can differ.

[casual47] 03/5/2020 21:56

On Covid, Armenia's PM reaches the only logical conclusion:

" "Our task from tomorrow is to ensure the conditions for coexistence with coronavirus. Let us agree that it is impossible to stay locked up for a year. If we knew that we could ascertain the victory over the pandemic under the most severe closed regime, we could come to such a decision, but this is impossible," he said."



"Restrictions will be lifted from tomorrow, and many economic areas will resume normal activities."

[casual47] 02/5/2020 15:59

Looks like others are finally catching up on my scooplet:

[casual47] 02/5/2020 15:11

Might be unrelated, but quite a few Lydian Armenia employees have been "liking" Chaarat's linkedin posts.

If you go through the various posts there are several folk who keep popping up time and again, E.g.:

A senior EBRD banker "Private equity investor and Non-executive director in emerging markets, primarily Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union. Responsible for a c.Euro 800m portfolio of private and listed equities, mostly in Agribusiness and Mining sectors",

The MD for the CIS office of Aggreko plc, a "supplier of temporary power generation equipment and of temperature control equipment",

a director of a company who are "Experts in pumping, mixing, blower and filtration equipment in mining / metals / fertilizers / wastewater treatment",

the CEO of Western Tethyan Resources,

A director at the UK Gov Department of International Trade who has "input to EBRD mining strategy."

A director at Solmax, a company that provides the lining for leach pads

And a few more

[2pablo] 01/5/2020 19:27

Casual, you’re right but I initially got hxxp://www.pmtl.fr/en/
totally different bunch. It’s easy to forget placings change existing holdings. Happened on AST today too where the CEO first appeared to have sold

[casual47] 01/5/2020 16:57

JC - yes. If the government wants it then it will happen. If they don't, then Chaarat just looks elsewhere.

[casual47] 01/5/2020 16:55

Pabs, relax. It's Polymetal. They have fallen below the 3% with the recent dilution.

They cannot sell their shares until August or somesuch and even then Chaarat have a right of first refusal for a year or so