Chaarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[2pablo] 05/2/2020 09:34

Traders on holiday today

[2pablo] 04/2/2020 17:10

I did say it to him as I'd not spoken this year, he was just reciprocating.

Amazing amount of trades, we're obviously somehow in somebody's radar for a load of trading games imo. All these A trades are surely designed to move the share price a certain way for a day or two and then reverse when they're ready.

I's better than no liquidity but I see it all as a bit false

[casual47] 04/2/2020 15:25

*cough*

"Dear pabs, Happy New Year!"

*cough*

Casual47 4 Feb '20 - 11:52 - 9491 of 9501
(...)
Otherwise it's a bit like saying "Happy New Year" in February....
(...)

[casual47] 04/2/2020 15:21

35 out of the 65 trades so far have been for 5,000 shares.

Looks like 5,000 is the new 15,000.

[casual47] 04/2/2020 15:18

Thanks Pabs. The time equivalent of "how long is a piece of string".

[2pablo] 04/2/2020 15:15

Quick response from Artem :

Dear pabs,

Happy New Year!

We are working on the releases and will be updating the markets soon.

Best,

Artem

[casual47] 04/2/2020 14:59

According to the revised mine plan:

"Pre-tax NPV for the LOM is $102 million at a discount rate of 5%."

If they pay $6m tax per year then the post-tax NPV for the LOM is $60m, or $8.5m annualised.

(Based on $1400/oz gold)

[casual47] 04/2/2020 14:48

Armenian website today reporting on the largest taxpayers. Chaarat Kapan is fourth largest and is said to have paid 2.857 billion Armenian dram in 2019, which is about $6m, or about $100 per oz.

[casual47] 04/2/2020 14:43

Lots of AT trades coming through. 165k shares traded within 1 minute, all at 14:40 and spread over 18 trades

[casual47] 04/2/2020 13:35

Delays with Chaarat have often been finance related so that's where I put my two pence. We know finance news on various fronts is due this quarter, so seems the most logical explanation.

[crapshoot2] 04/2/2020 13:33

Bad news take longer to add up than good news. I am wary of delays

[2pablo] 04/2/2020 13:21

Have just emailed Artem saying we must be due those two updates, 'Are they delayed?'

[casual47] 04/2/2020 12:06

A UT of 1 share.....

0_o

[casual47] 04/2/2020 11:52

I suppose they can give us the q4 Kapan update at any time this quarter or even, more simply, not provide it at all.

But if they are going to update the market then, surely, this week ought to be the last week to do so? Otherwise it's a bit like saying "Happy New Year" in February....

For sure they must have had all the reporting data for q4 by the third week of January, latest. That makes it a two week delay already.

It seems obvious that this is being held back on purpose.

The resource update, by Dusty's reckoning of "before end of the year for sure", is now a whole 5 weeks overdue.

[casual47] 04/2/2020 11:49

This happened yesterday also: 20 AT trades of 5,000 shares in quick succession.

[casual47] 03/2/2020 15:09

Both the resource update and the q4 operational update are now way past their expected due date.

Something's cookin'

[oli12] 03/2/2020 07:07

Well there’s an RNS just not the one we wanted. Probs a good thing today as the markets will likely be somewhat volatile.

[casual47] 02/2/2020 18:46

Who knows...perhaps the new VP of Government Relations and Security, Mr. Pilipenko, was sent to Armenia to see if something could be salvaged....it would be the kind of thing I imagine he was hired for........

[casual47] 02/2/2020 18:16

Apparently Lydian are in talks with one potential buyer for the Amulsar mine. I cannot see a sale going ahead without cast iron guarantees from the Armenian government re. protection of the asset and removal of the illegal blockades around the mine.

The EBRD have been lobbying the Armenian government to solve the issue.

See tweet:

If you look at the pic you can see the EBRD VP who also attended the Chaarat Kyrgyz investment forum and was having roundtable talks with Chaarat and Kyrgyz officials. The guy in the middle, on the left, is the boss of the EBRD, president Suma Chakrabarti,

[casual47] 01/2/2020 13:38

Note that the VP of Corporate Development hire I mentioned earlier happened in August 2019, a couple of weeks prior to that announcement - and replacing loan notes could fall under his remit (it is an aspect of Corporate Development). He is an old colleague of the CFO and this role probably has at least a dotted line into the CFO.

From his linkedin 'About' section:
"Sourcing, diligence, negotiation and execution of M&A transactions and structured debt financings"

Imo dyor etc

[casual47] 01/2/2020 13:32

In this context I think the following from the 11/09/2019 funding update RNS makes a lot of sense:

"The Company would like to announce that it has closed the previously announced 2021 Convertible Bond raise to new subscriptions. Following the most recent subscription of US$500,000 in July 2019, and the agreement with Polymetal to exchange USD 10 million of notes for equity, the total value of the 2021 notes in issue is US$19,680,000."

Why would they announce the close of the 2021 bond raise for new subscription unless they

a) no longer needed money via this route (unlikely imo)
b) were unable to raise more money via this route (possible but with interest rates where they are unlikely imo, though I think a possible constraining factor could have been finding the right kind of people for it, who would be supportive of the company and are more long term rather than ones e.g. likely to dump their converted shares or turn out to be inflexible)
c) they knew they were going to replace the 2021 bonds with new e.g. 2023 bonds

[casual47] 01/2/2020 12:57

If I was in charge of Chaarat I would make sure they renegotiate the loan notes before releasing any price-sensitive news this side of Tulku financing.

It would clearly be helpful to see the shareprice above the conversion point of 37p to persuade as many as possible to opt to convert rather than cash out or take up new loan notes.

On the other side of Tulku financing the loan notes will be immaterial but until then the 37p notes could be a drag on shareprice movements. Replacing them with e.g. 45p upward loan notes could allow the shareprice to rerate on q4/resource update more freely and at the same time provide support at the new conversion point.

I think we could see Labro convert their existing 37p loan notes and also take up new loan notes, which together with cash flow from Kapan and the Labro loan facility should provide plenty of cash to pay the loan note holders who wish to cash out.

Imo. this is what could be going on in the background right now and the delay in releasing news perhaps has been to accommodate this process and give time to convince the last remaining stragglers to either convert or replace their loan notes.

Some of the recent buying may have been from loan note holders as they will of course already know about any new price point of the new convertible loan notes and may think there is an easy 10-20% flip to be done...

[casual47] 31/1/2020 16:20

The tax stabilisation agreement, a first for Kyrgyzstan, is a key requirement to get Western investment (not so much a problem for Chinese or Russian money as they have other means to "guarantee" their investment).

I doubt it was agreed just between Chaarat and the Kyrgyz government for the sake of it.

There must have been, imo, significant lobbying by A.N.Other (EBRD?) to get this agreement signed and to do so right before Chaarat needs to finalise funding this quarter.

Imo etc