Chaarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 31/7/2018 10:48

JC - it's still there, though moved to the "outcome" underneath the table:

"Clear roadmap to increased shareholder value"

Before there was the phrase "The goal is to close the first transaction in H2 2018" there.

[casual47] 31/7/2018 10:32

Still think the talk of already paying back the October 2019 loan is a smoking gun of sorts...

[jc2706] 31/7/2018 10:31

Had a look through the presentation and did a quick comparison with the last one in April. The M&A slide is interesting as it has more detail (including the omission, slightly disturbingly, of creating value for shareholders!). Suggests that there are now 12 rather than 10 targets and that 2 of these are in 'Advanced negotiations' rather than 'Advanced stage'. Considering that the slide could have just been copied and modified, it is an interesting change in semantics.

[casual47] 31/7/2018 10:29

Mere coincidence that the Centerra strategic agreement is being pushed back to about the same deadline?

[jc2706] 31/7/2018 10:27

I can't see much reason for rushing out an interim resource statement in September other than to support some form of financing. It may be that this is interim perhaps related to the convertibles due as you say, with the rest to follow in 2019. Still, should be positive given the strike extensions so far. All a bit rushed though which is suggestive of some form of deadline.

[casual47] 31/7/2018 09:46

Seems like it JC.

Q3 ends in September, so for work to start on time the financing and/or M&A ought to be all but done and dusted?

Mind you, with the Kyrgyz winter season following soon after how much can be done this side of Christmas? I.e. how much capex would they need until about April 2019? So perhaps we could see another small stop gap financing injection of the order of $15m rather than the project financing we are all waiting for? And then they can go for the big one once the resource statement has been completely finalised early q1 2019? They still need to do something with that 15m loan that's due in a
few weeks but perhaps given all the recent news that will convert @30p?

[jc2706] 31/7/2018 07:48

More drill results posted, extending the mineralisation by another 200m. But what is most significant here is the fact that they are, indeed, going for the September 2018 resource update. Combine this with the statement that there will be a commencement of work at Tulkubash in Q3 subject to financing and I don't think that it would be too wild a statement to suggest that the financing is probably there if they can prove up a certain amount of resource/reserves.

[jc2706] 31/7/2018 07:44

I'll have a look at the presentation later. Interesting to see the changes to the M&A position since last presentation.

[casual47] 30/7/2018 21:44

I suppose "transformational" would be something akin to Kumtor and "bolt-on" could be a small private mine in the region, e.g. producing 60Koz/pa?

[casual47] 30/7/2018 21:25

Based on current Centerra share price the "market value" of Kumtor would be closer to US$400m. So nearly a 100% premium, according to Chaarat's cheeky calculation....

[casual47] 30/7/2018 21:22

From the Kumtor slide:

Benefits to Centerra
*Offer represents more than an 80% premium to the implied market value of Kumtor (~US$440 mm)(1)
*Removes a troublesome asset that has been the primary source of negative newsflow in recent years, potentially leading to a re-rating in its share price
*Rebalances its portfolio toward Tier 1 jurisdictions
*Cash consideration can be used to accelerate the development of Canadian growth assets
*Enhances its shareholder register


1.Centerra has itself declared in its June 2018 investor presentation that Kumtor represents 31% of its Net Asset Value. Centerra's market capitalisation was US$1.4 billion as of 8 July 2018, implying that the market values Kumtor at approximately US$440 million. Chaarat's proposal of US$800m represents a premium of more than 80% of the value the market currently places on Kumtor

[casual47] 30/7/2018 21:02

There's an updated presentation on the website:

Below two snippets from it that jumped out at me -- feel free to add any I missed:

In addition to announced M&A (Kumtor): Tangible Pipeline of 12 M&A opportunities, 2 at an advanced stage, Combination of transformational and bolt-on opportunities

Tulkubash: Site development expected to commence Q3 2018 subject to financing arrangements

[casual47] 30/7/2018 14:42

The article I linked seemed to think it was a great move at the time and it credited Pete with some "star quality". Don't know enough about either men to have an opinion on it. There certainly have been a lot of changes in strategic direction in the last year or so, and Pete's departure could be a result of that.

I imagine we will know more this quarter.

Am hoping we will get another drill results RNS this week.

[willo] 30/7/2018 14:14

Pete Gardner leaving does not surprise me one bit.... Never thought he was high enough quality for what Martin Anderson is trying to deliver here. The new guy's CV is 100 times more impressive. Looks to me as though he didn't live up to expectations and management have acted decisively.

[casual47] 30/7/2018 13:28

Horrible time to be invested in gold miners - as I am. Glad Chaarat is suspended right now.

[casual47] 29/7/2018 11:42

Sunday reading for Kyrgyz government trainspotters: An opinion piece evaluating the 100 days in office of the Kyrgyz prime minister (taking a mostly negative view). It has a section on Kumtor. Nothing new, but illustrating the quandary the Kyrgyz politicians find themselves in.

[jc2706] 27/7/2018 17:48

We don't know the ins and outs of Gardner going/not joining. Given the focus on M&A, it wouldn't surprise me if the attention shifted to somebody with more relevant experience.

I am sure that I was not the only one who stated that the BFS for Tulkubash would struggle to find financial support - the reserves did not justify the mining rate which led to a high capex, low mine life and low NPV/IRR. They would have known this when it was produced.

I believe that this comes down to Artem Volynets painting a vision of building a gold giant. Everything else follows on from this with the people involved fitting that profile. Of course, Tulkubash/Kyzyltash fit into the story as it is likely to be a globally significant ore body but we are at least months away from confirming that Tulkubash is a resource that can attract finance. If it can't then the focus falls even more heavily on the M&A.

[casual47] 27/7/2018 15:32

The way this market is at the moment perfection gets rewarded with a shrug and any kind of hiccup is mercilessly punished.

So....Chaarat BOD, you have talked the talk, can you walk the walk and deliver?

[casual47] 27/7/2018 15:22

Juju, If this share wasn't suspended I would feel a little anxious too.

It's a blessing we are suspended: given the current bear market the share could easily have dropped by over 30% in the last three months.

Even fully-funded, debt-free gold producing mammoths are adrift.....

[juju44] 27/7/2018 13:55

Can't say I'm relaxed about Gardiner going . Why did he not get on board if it all looks so good

[casual47] 27/7/2018 12:22

An RNS marking the halfway point of their 2018 drilling programme would be just the ticket right about now.....

[casual47] 27/7/2018 12:18

Not sure Pete Gardner leaving is good news.....

"No wonder Pete Gardner, widely recognised as one of the leading up and comers in the UK mining sector, was so quick to jump on board. Before Andersson had completed his board restructuring Gardner’s move looked slightly odd. Now, it makes complete sense."