Chaarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[juju44] 07/8/2018 12:57

Certainly begs a lot of very interesting questions and have to agree something big just has to be in the pipeline . Good research Casual , you are doing a very good job

[casual47] 07/8/2018 12:53

Seems almost obvious that Chaarat is a puzzle piece in a Russian (and Putin-friendly) oligarch gold play?

[casual47] 07/8/2018 12:37

I think this is a recent development:

Our CEO, Artem Volynets, is now also an independent director of Nornickel, a multi-billion dollars company.



Major shareholders:
Vladimir Potanin (28%)
Oleg Deripaska (25.1%)
Roman Abramovich (7.3%)

Anyone who wasn't thinking something big is about to happen to Chaarat.....think again.

[casual47] 06/8/2018 19:06

Article dated today about Martin A. at a press lunch discussing investment in Kyrgyzstan.....

[casual47] 06/8/2018 17:38

Anyway, it further underlines why September should be the month when all will be revealed.

>2017 Loan notes will become due
>AIM suspension entering in its final month
>Kyrgyz parliamentary review planned of Centerra deal

[casual47] 06/8/2018 17:22

That said.....isn't WRN suspended now for many years and still listed on AIM?

[casual47] 06/8/2018 17:21

From AIM rules :

Cancellation
41. An AIM company which wishes the Exchange to cancel admission of its AIM securities must notify such intended cancellation and must separately inform the Exchange of its preferred cancellation date at least twenty business days prior to such date and save where the Exchange otherwise agrees, the cancellation shall be conditional upon the consent of not less than 75% of votes cast by its shareholders given in a general meeting.

The Exchange will cancel the admission of AIM securities where these have been suspended from trading for six months.

Cancellations are effected by a dealing notice.

[oli12] 06/8/2018 16:30

Is there a limit how long a suspension can last? 6 months springs to mind.... any ideas?

[casual47] 01/8/2018 16:29

Don't know sparks. I think the issue is that Centerra are loathed to lose the free cash flow they get from Kumtor.

Perhaps if the offer was 100% cash they might have considered it.

[sparkyboy1] 01/8/2018 16:02

What price do you think is realistic price Casual47 if i price was a good one you think they might of considered it.

[casual47] 01/8/2018 13:50

From the Yahoo Centerra BB:

"Earnings are out. Excluding the royalty portfolio sale and Mongolia write down, etc.... EPS 22c. With all those items included the net income was 15c. Read pages 35 through 37 and tell please tell me why Perry et al rejected the Chaarat offer of $800M for Kumtor? Galactically stoopid. Slow clap for Perry et al. "

[casual47] 01/8/2018 12:40

Centerra q2 results out today. Not sure it will give much of a boost to their share price - they've had to lower their annual gold production forecast range by 20k oz (because of the water issues at their Canadian flagship mine and some stoppages in 3rd quarter) and, as far as I can tell from skimming the report, if it wasn't for them selling royalties and a silver stream in one if their recently acquired mines it looks like the numbers would have been a little disappointing.

The report has some info on Kumtor, not much of interest, but the one thing that struck me was the explicit mentioning that international arbitration against the Kyrgyz government was "on hold" until the strategic agreement deadline. (End of August). So looks like they are prepared to threaten a legal battle should the government step out of bounds.

Now how could the Kyrgyz get all they want without such a legal battle? Hmm....



Long-term debt and lease obligation 257.5m
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash 215.5m

"The Company is currently evaluating several forms of debt financing including offtake financing and project financing to fund the development of the Kemess Project." (Their Turkish mine, slated for 2020 production)

[casual47] 31/7/2018 12:09

We can, perhaps, assume that Kumtor is their "shoot for the moon" which could, perhaps, imply that the maximum they are able to raise or have access to (debt+equity) is about 400m USD, which, perhaps, gives us some idea of a potential placing price....?

15-30p if no M&A and just funding Tulkubash?
30-50p if they go for plan B M&A (not Kumtor)?
50-80p if Kumtor?

[casual47] 31/7/2018 12:00

Perhaps a good time for this reminder:

The AGM gave the BOD the authority to issue up to 238,585,310 shares this year (majority of those expiring 31/12 and will need new AGM if not issued).

This will raise:
At 15p - 47m USD
At 25p - 78.5m USD
At 30p - 94m USD
At 40p - 125m USD
At 50p - 157m UDD
At 60p - 188m USD
At 63.66p - 200m USD
At 80p - 250m USD

[casual47] 31/7/2018 10:55

New presentation:

Significant access to owners and management teams combined with research and knowledge of operating mines in the region allowing for effective business selection and processes
Twelve opportunities under consideration
– Two at an advanced
stage

April presentation:

Ten opportunities in evaluation stage
 Three under detailed review
 Two in advanced negotiations

[casual47] 31/7/2018 10:48

JC - it's still there, though moved to the "outcome" underneath the table:

"Clear roadmap to increased shareholder value"

Before there was the phrase "The goal is to close the first transaction in H2 2018" there.

[casual47] 31/7/2018 10:32

Still think the talk of already paying back the October 2019 loan is a smoking gun of sorts...

[jc2706] 31/7/2018 10:31

Had a look through the presentation and did a quick comparison with the last one in April. The M&A slide is interesting as it has more detail (including the omission, slightly disturbingly, of creating value for shareholders!). Suggests that there are now 12 rather than 10 targets and that 2 of these are in 'Advanced negotiations' rather than 'Advanced stage'. Considering that the slide could have just been copied and modified, it is an interesting change in semantics.

[casual47] 31/7/2018 10:29

Mere coincidence that the Centerra strategic agreement is being pushed back to about the same deadline?

[jc2706] 31/7/2018 10:27

I can't see much reason for rushing out an interim resource statement in September other than to support some form of financing. It may be that this is interim perhaps related to the convertibles due as you say, with the rest to follow in 2019. Still, should be positive given the strike extensions so far. All a bit rushed though which is suggestive of some form of deadline.

[casual47] 31/7/2018 09:46

Seems like it JC.

Q3 ends in September, so for work to start on time the financing and/or M&A ought to be all but done and dusted?

Mind you, with the Kyrgyz winter season following soon after how much can be done this side of Christmas? I.e. how much capex would they need until about April 2019? So perhaps we could see another small stop gap financing injection of the order of $15m rather than the project financing we are all waiting for? And then they can go for the big one once the resource statement has been completely finalised early q1 2019? They still need to do something with that 15m loan that's due in a
few weeks but perhaps given all the recent news that will convert @30p?

[jc2706] 31/7/2018 07:48

More drill results posted, extending the mineralisation by another 200m. But what is most significant here is the fact that they are, indeed, going for the September 2018 resource update. Combine this with the statement that there will be a commencement of work at Tulkubash in Q3 subject to financing and I don't think that it would be too wild a statement to suggest that the financing is probably there if they can prove up a certain amount of resource/reserves.

[jc2706] 31/7/2018 07:44

I'll have a look at the presentation later. Interesting to see the changes to the M&A position since last presentation.

[casual47] 30/7/2018 21:44

I suppose "transformational" would be something akin to Kumtor and "bolt-on" could be a small private mine in the region, e.g. producing 60Koz/pa?