Cerillion Share Discussion Threads

[zolota] 26/2/2007 09:31

It is good to see that CER has updated their website and added a nice powerpoint presentation about their future plans. There surely is a lot of upside potential while the downside risks are limited because the gold production rates are finally creeping up moly revenues are coming in and a very strong cash position.

[papalpower] 20/2/2007 15:41

Yes, but not a motivated holder, being ex EKA :)

[kielbasa] 20/2/2007 15:40

Papal, are you still in these?

[munin] 20/2/2007 13:49

Anybody have any information or views on this Iberian Resources, in which Celtic have now acquired a 2.16% stake, as consideration for the mining equipment?

[kielbasa] 20/2/2007 11:10

This share is totally unloved by everyone, however, it still seems to be ticking up very steadily!!!!!

[zolota] 16/2/2007 09:10

Good to finally hear something again from the company, although extremely limited. In the past they always mentioned production targets (which they subsequently never met) somehow they stopped doing this. I am particularly disappointed that CER is not saying anything about the moly sales, because this should become quite substantial. Maybe they keep this quiet in order not to upset the EKA shareholders too much.
Altogether the gold production and moly sales should give a decent positive cashflow and profit.

[stephenwilson] 13/2/2007 18:13

We've not heard anything about Moly sales since Eureka was taken out. I think this could be quite significant relative to the current low market capitalisation.

[kielbasa] 06/2/2007 13:23

There definitely seems to be a upward trend, recently?

[rupe1958] 06/2/2007 13:16

Any explanation for the nice rise today?
Maybe CER's 5% holding in VOG, which has just become 50% more valuable.
The chart looks promising

[tameboy] 06/2/2007 12:31

that was an interesting read energyi, encouraging!

[hpreston] 05/2/2007 10:07

Thanks Energyi

[energyi] 03/2/2007 04:46

"Im looking again..
It just may be time to think about getting back into Celtic"

SO was said on a new GEI thread

Link:

[tameboy] 03/2/2007 00:35

konil - I agree with your views, however, I still think that at the current price, this is is a good value share which is why, despite my frustration with my losses since my original EKA purchase, I will be sticking with it for now.

Once I've broken even or made a little profit I will sell and steer well clear of the Foo.

Susiebe - forgive me for not following this thread closely enough, but I assume from your post that you have sold your CER shares?

[chevyplus] 01/2/2007 14:20

konil,
a little on copper JV.Interesting that they say a partner would be hard to get and the price they say at the end.
Chevyplus
From ATON RESEARCH ----

Celtic Resources. Finds JV partner for Mikheevskoye copper/gold deposit
Celtic Resources is entering into a joint venture with Anime Global to develop the Mikheevskoye copper/gold deposit, the company said in a statement. No details on Anime Global were provided, although Vedomosti writes it represents the interests of the IST group, which sold Polymetal to Nafta-Moskva in 2005.

Mikheevskoye is one of the copper/gold assets in the Chelyabinsk Region that Celtic owns through Eureka Mining (acquired by Celtic in December 2006). Anime Global is to contribute $16mn to the 50/50 JV, meaning Celtic's share in the project is also worth $16mn. In our recent report Celtic Resources: Turnaround story at very distressed multiples, we excluded copper/gold assets from our fair value calculation, as we viewed the projects as too big for Celtic to develop on its own. Including the $16mn value for Mikheevskoye would increase our end-2007 fair value by $0.29 per share to $4.24.

The JV is to begin work immediately, starting with the development an overall project plan. Initially, Polymetal Engineering, a subsidiary of Russia's largest silver producer, Polymetal, has been chosen to complete a bankable feasibility study, including obtaining all local permits and licenses by end-2007. Celtic Resources hopes the JV also will identify a low-cost process to allow copper production to begin quickly, potentially using solvent extraction-electro winning (SX-EW). The JV also intends to determine the optimum mine and processing plant size for production of concentrates from sulfide ores.

We view the news as positive for Celtic. In our view, the market did not expect the company to find a JV partner for the copper/gold project. The possibility of getting early cash flows at moderate capex through heap leaching is also positive.

We reiterate our Buy recommendation on Celtic Resources, with an end-2007 fair value of $3.95.

[susiebe] 01/2/2007 09:34

konil

Exactly, and why I will never touch anything again that has the name Foo linked to it.
Much happier to be holding shares where as far as I know the management can be trusted.
I wonder if CER will ever recover but not that I care a fig!

[konil] 31/1/2007 22:12

chevy, your analysis is spot on, apart from the "all that aside", because it was exactly that... "As Celtic had a position in EKA I suppose they were the first to know of the problems and took the oppotunity to buy at the best time."... which caused huge losses for eka holders. were it not for the fact that those charged with regulating the market were either not looking or couldn't be bothered, the eka and cer managements would not have been able to play games that in short amounted to insider dealing. eka shareholders will never forget nor forgive the way their interests were brushed aside and everyone who witnessed it knows how far they can trust the incumbent management. of course this is only my opinion.

[chevyplus] 31/1/2007 20:14

PP,
I think the problem with EKA was simple --- they had no cash.Even if they had the chance of a JV, they couldnt provide anything, other than a possible copper mine.
This would have left any prospective partner in a somewhat confused position.If they put in the cash etc, then what was the need for EKA, so they would have looked at a buyout, as did Celtic.We know the result of that.
As Celtic had a position in EKA I suppose they were the first to know of the problems and took the oppotunity to buy at the best time.
All that aside surely as Celtic holders we should be more than happy with the result.I must say it looks as if we will be involved in a Copper and Gold mine which will add revenue without Celtic having to forkout large amounts of cash.
In my view this can only be seen as positive.
Chevyplus

[74graham] 31/1/2007 07:52

pp i did say on monday looks like a good day here and MG CAPITAL as £1 million pound investment here looks good.imho

[papalpower] 31/1/2007 07:34

Good news today for CER.

But you do wonder why this never happened whilst it was in EKA hands, although we all know they were talking about it then.

Obviously EKA would never have been purchased so cheap by CER if they announced this while EKA was in control.............


Dodgy practises......very much so imo.

Ho hum........

[zolota] 30/1/2007 09:14

Thank you Chevyplus. Glad to see that there are also some analysts who wonder why this share is valued so low. Indeed strange that they don't mention the moly production and sales. This should be(come) a decent cash generator.

As always, we could do with some decent information flow from the company, rather than hearing nothing for month until all of a sudden another skeleton comes out of the closet. Will it ever stop? and will they ever learn?

[stephenwilson] 30/1/2007 08:32

No mention in that note about moly production which must be significant to CER.

[papalpower] 30/1/2007 08:26

Thanks for that chevyplus.

[chevyplus] 30/1/2007 08:12

Papal Power,
a rather positive note from Aton.
Chevyplus

Research


[phone]

Equity Fixed Income




24 January 2007, Wednesday
Celtic Resources. Turnaround story at very distressed multiples
Documents
Full version (PDF; 162,06 kB)




We reinitiate coverage of Celtic Resources with a Buy rating; we believe the market is ignoring its growth potential and strong balance sheet. Celtic's shares have slowly dropped to recent lows of $2.8 from their 2006 high of $6, reflecting the general weak sentiment towards AIM-listed mining juniors, investor concerns over the questionable acquisition of Eureka Mining, and management's inability to find good use for the funds received for Nezhdaninskoye. At current price levels, however, we think the market is exaggerating the negative news, while ignoring Celtic's medium-term growth potential and strong balance sheet. Adjusted for $66mn in cash, equity holdings, and financial receivables, the value of the company's core assets becomes $102mn, which we consider cheap for a 60,000oz producer set to increase its output 80% by 2008F.

Solid operating, financial performance in 2006; strong growth expected in 2007F-2008F. Based on 1H06 actual results and 2H06 operational updates, we expect Celtic to report gold production of 63,000oz in 2006, up 66% y-o-y. We expect to see production growth accelerate in 2007F-2008F once the company begins mining higher grade ore at Suzdal. Strong financial performance should follow: Celtic generated $11mn in EBITDA and $6mn in operating cash flow in 1H06, a material improvement over negative cash flows in 2005. We expect strong cash flow generation to be sustained in 2007F-2008F as production volumes climb and G&A costs decrease in the wake of smaller legal expenses.

Comparative financial multiples support over 100% upside; DCF suggests 42%-65% upside potential. The company trades at a 2007F EV/EBITDA of 3.4X, against a Russia/FSU average of 11.2X. Similarly, it trades at a 2007F P/E of 9.6X against a Russia/FSU average of 23.2X. Both of these suggest upside of more than 100%. The company also trades at $1,971/oz of gold produced in 2006F against a Russia/FSU average of $3,639/oz. Celtic looks fairly valued on a resource basis, however, at $64/oz of resources against a Russia/FSU average of $53/oz. A combination of low earnings multiples and high resource multiples suggests the market gives Celtic no credit for potential reserve additions despite a $66mn cash pile (end-2006F) and strong expected FCF generation in 2007F-2010F. From the DCF perspective, using a WACC of 12.7% and a long-term gold price of $500/oz, our end-2007 fair value is $3.95/share excluding any exploration value for Russian copper assets, and $4.58/share including it. This suggests 42%-65% upside.

Possible triggers for 2007 include M&A activity, strategic partners for copper; management execution is the key. We see possible value-accretive M&A deals as perhaps the major catalyst for the company in 2007 as Celtic's ample financial resources represent a major competitive advantage. Alternatively, Celtic's low valuation could make it an attractive acquisition target. Finding a partner for a JV to develop Mikheevskoye would also be seen as very positive news. Finally, some cash could be distributed among shareholders in dividend form, which we believe would highlight the low valuation of the company's core business. Investors should note, however, that achieving a turnaround and reviving the stock price strongly depend on management execution of the growth strategy; the gold price is another major risk factor