Cerillion Share Discussion Threads

[davepower] 24/7/2006 02:09

Kinda quiet on this thread. Has no-one noticed the drop followed by the gradual move up? or is everyone on holiday? What are peeps views on how the proceeds from the sale of Nez will be used?
will it be a new investment probably in FSR (maybe included as part of the inducement to part with the NEZ share?)
Will it be to expand operations in KAZAKSTAN or will KF invest the lot in shares of another company about to have an increase in share price ather like FDI did with African Diamonds and made a handsome return. I did notice that KF bought a lump of EKA shares. Perhaps CER might do the same. They could certainly do much worse IMHO.

Either way I'm sure that the price of gold has a long way to run, with the weakness of the US economic position. The dilemma, raise rates & bust the economy but keep the foreign investment to pay for the overspending or let the dollar go unsupported, lose foreign investment and take the hit on the loss of buying power of the dollar. Not a choice I would like to make but both ways I see gold price increasing. Comments I have read suggest that the $US could depreciate by around 30%.
Ultimately I believe that this will ensure a higher share price for CER in the future.

I must admit to being intrigued by the way that the cash CER has will be utilised. There really are some bargains out there in gold miners at the moment after the sell off. Certainly a good time to have $80 million or so in the bank.
Cheers
Dave

[holdontightuk] 09/7/2006 01:04

Then he's not very good at setting deadlines. I think he lacks substance - show me one of his companies that has actually delivered and sustained this delivery?

[cheading] 30/6/2006 13:04

bibeatle,

Met many times, over last 5 years. Made good money on CER and VOG. Under water on EKA. He's very hard working, straight, good under pressure. Often misses deadlines, but must put in context he's working in VERY difficult areas.

cheers

cheading

[bjbeatle] 29/6/2006 22:05

hi
anybody here got any thoughts on Kevin Foo? I would like to know what you think of him.

[hpreston] 19/6/2006 13:03

With u Barony

[caiman27] 19/6/2006 08:23

Annual results out - and they are not great.

Looks like Celtic has only been saved by the very high gold prices - op costs way way up. Also worth noting that it is still waiting for the repayment of old loans to Nezh (around $10m).

Capital cost for Suzdal $10m over budget.

On the positive side, the company has finally published a proper set of operating results for the mines, so it should be possible to track progress.

[chevyplus] 14/6/2006 22:51

sinclair6,
I think the way the markets are at the moment we will see people looking to safe positions.If one was to see the value of Celtic with the cash in bank and Suzdal and Zherek working away I think you would see that at the current price we would be undervalued by as muck as 50% in my view.Without going into detail when the market settles you will find the gold sector will have another move upwards.
It would seem the U.S. will have to face the issues they have and then the markets will move up.It is my view that the correction is about finished and we will see the markets in positive territory soon.The damaage has been done in the gold sector buy the Central Banks and a few other uncouth individuals who will make their move back shortly.
The $ is getting weaker and they will get into gold as the safehaven it is.Remember one thing the U.S. cannot continue to have deficets of trillions of dollars the world will have to be paid sooner than later and when the Chinese and other s stop buying bonds etc the dollar will and the U.S/ will fall on hard times.I think the problem we face is the possibity of inflation happening the world over then we will see the money managers of the U.S (The Jews) get taken to the cleaners.At least I hope so.They have caused enormous problems the world over.
It is my opinion that the people who are in charge of the Federal Reserve including the one who caused all the problems will get theirs Mr Greenspan and the rest of his Jewish friends have a lot to answer for.Lets hope the world wakes to there slimey games and avoids them.
Chevyplus

[caiman27] 08/6/2006 10:48

The annual results HAVE to be out by end June. Kevin usually leaves it to the last minute though. Indeed, last year's came out on 29 June.

Now more than 4 months since the market was last updated about the operations in Kazakhstan. Not exactly shareholder-friendly this one.

[tamref] 08/6/2006 09:05

this has been drifting lower for weeks on thin trade. hope the annual report will shake things up a bit (due in June judging by previous years)

[tigerinvest] 30/5/2006 10:25

- I agree, Kevin has to prove he can really deliver. I've even heard people talk about the Kevin Foo discount...
- On top of this, forward prices for commodities have been mostly downward sloping so the current high prices have not been (fully) taken into account in the DCFs. Most investment banks work with internal price estimates that are even lower (even though these seem to be adjusting to higher levels fast).
- In the end of the day, Celtic has to show that it can meet its production estimates and get some serious cash-flow going..

[doobydave] 21/5/2006 13:12

-->TigerInvest,
Possibly true - it depends (see below).

In my book Celtic management have a lot to prove. If they are genuinely turning Suzdal round into a 100,000oz per annum operation with bona fide cash costs of $170 as broadcast, we are at an altogether different ball game:

Cash, VOG and EKA = £63m
100,000oz at $250/oz profit margin: $25m = £12.5m
P/E of 10 = £125m

i.e. CER could be valued at £188m - 40% higher. This would in my view be the most optimisitic valuation, unless you are applying a more generous P/E, as 100K oz is the maximum design capacity at Suzdal.

It entirely depends progress in Kazakhstan. At present I am still modestly invested and have nothing to gain from talking Celtic down. I simply wish to be sure I have both feet on the ground.

Regards,
DD

[tigerinvest] 21/5/2006 08:46

DD,

You're saying that we are at best 20m overvalued on a p/e basis. This is not really fair - given the projected production increases over the next years, a DCF analysis (like most analyst use) would give a higher value.

[doobydave] 18/5/2006 23:40

Chevy,
I agree.

I'm far more interested in making Kazakh operations work properly than buying exploration prosepcts. Buying production sounds more attractive but at this gold price I suspect they'd end up paying through the nose.

Worth remembering that Celtic is valued at £132m. Minus:

* the cash windfall of $80m, call it £40m
* the 5.5% VOG shareholding worth £10.7m
* the 14.14% EKA shareholding worth £12.2m

I'm not sure what their cash position is at present. Aside of this, we get a value for the company's current gold ops of £70m, which implies £7m whole-company profit on a PE of 10. In fact, in H1 05, Suzdal made an operating loss.

The whole Nezh fiasco has been a huge management distraction, but I'm glad they have a new COO in charge of Suzdal/Zherek (appointed last August). At the interims Celtic admitted they didn't expect Suzdal to produce 40,000oz for the year, with under 9,000oz during H1.

Cash costs are 'budgeted' at $170/oz. All-in costs are a complete guess but let's have a stab at $350 on an average gold price of $600 and assume a full 40,000oz, which I reckon are generous estimates under the circumstances. That would give us a profit margin of £5m. Then there's the cost of the Kazakh loan. If Ross Calnan is doing a good job, production figures might be better by now but I wouldn't wager my lawn clippings on it.

We'll know a bit more at finals, due by the end of June.
DD

[brakoll] 18/5/2006 23:25

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[chevyplus] 18/5/2006 22:48

TigerInvest

I think the position Celtic are in now could only be seen to be very positive.As you say, one would hope that with the cash on hand they will be able to pick-up a mine or two.I guess management will have been busy with the money due, so we can hope we see an aquisition sooner than later.Not sure if Suzdal needs any cash for improvements, but it is now there so lets use it to ramp up production.
As we are aware the markets are getting a hammering, so I guess the s/price will suffer short term, but surely even with the current assets and cash in bank the company is undervalued, so one would expect a rise soon.
Gold has had its correction and will move back into the $700.00 plus area shortly so for small miners like Celtic,with low cost production, good times await.
Chevyplus

[tigerinvest] 18/5/2006 14:15

and no impact on the share price.... Let's hope that the potential projects for acquisition are good.

[caiman27] 18/5/2006 08:55

Nezh money in the bank. Odd time to issue an RNS, but then WdeB is a little distracted these days.



RNS Number:1795D


Celtic Resources Holdings PLC
18 May 2006



Celtic Resources Holdings Plc

Nezhdaninskoye sale for US$80 million completed

Celtic Resources Holdings Plc ("Celtic" or "the Company") is pleased to announce
that it has completed the sale of 20% of The South Verkhoyansk Mining Company
("SVMC") for US$80 million cash (the "Consideration"). SVMC is the license
holder for the Nezhdaninskoye gold mine in Yakutia, Russia ("Nezhdaninskoye").

On 3 February 2006 the Company announced the outcome of its discussions on the
future of Nezhdaninskoye with Interros Group, one of Russia's largest private
investment companies and a controlling shareholder in JSC MMC Norilsk Nickel and
Polyus. As a result of these discussions, KM Technologies (Overseas) Limited, an
investment vehicle for the Interros Group, made the cash offer. The
Consideration has been held in escrow pending the withdrawal of Celtic's legal
actions surrounding the disputed ownership in Nezhdaninskoye. That withdrawal is
now complete and the Consideration has been received in full by the Company.


Comment

Peter Hannen, Chairman commented, "Celtic is now placed to continue with its
fundamental aim which remains: to grow into a significant gold mining company.
We are actively assessing potential projects for acquisition to build on the
production base at the Suzdal and Zherek mines in Kazakhstan. We are pleased to
finally have completed this transaction and the Company can now look to the
future, move forward and grow."


For further information please contact:

Kevin Foo / Kate Dexter Smith Leesa Peters / Laurence Read
Celtic Resources Holdings Plc Conduit PR
Tel: + 44 (0)20 7921 8800 Tel: [phone]
Tel: [phone]
[e-mail] [e-mail]

Frank Moxon / Nick Morgan
Williams de Broe Plc
Tel: [phone]

[hpreston] 16/5/2006 01:16

I think u and I r the only ones with that brand of humor Zolota.

[zolota] 14/5/2006 13:16

I am sorry for the confusion. I know just as little as everyone else. I was just synical, frustrated by the lack of communication. I thought the :-( made this clear enough.

[tigerinvest] 14/5/2006 11:28

Zolota, I don't recall this info. Where did you get it? Did you have another call with Celtic?