Cerillion Share Discussion Threads

[tamref] 12/5/2006 16:24

zolota, I'm not asking you to expose your source regarding the 25,000oz in the first quarter, but can you tell us if he/she/it is reliable? (further details would also be welcome e.g. if the claim appears in an article then a citation would be nice). Was that for Suz and Zerek combined?

If the claim is correct, then the numbers for this year should look mighty impressive.

[zolota] 12/5/2006 08:47

HP I think so too, just like they could not be bothered to mention that they are for the first time actually achieving their target and have produced more than 25000 ounces of gold in the first quarter:-(

[tigerinvest] 11/5/2006 23:43

Oh, that's it....

[hpreston] 11/5/2006 09:16

Zolota Maybe they have the money and haven't bothered to announce the fact

[zolota] 11/5/2006 08:26

Tamref, It is what you call not long to wait. I am once again very disappointed by the complete lack of any communication to shareholders what is going on and looking to the large number of small sells I am not the only PI who is disappointed. However if they are able to finally reach their modest targets there should be some upwards potential, with or without any ace from Kevin.

[tamref] 06/5/2006 18:09

Well, if history is any guide we dont have long to wait to find out...annual results were published in june last year and the year before. Hopefully this year, the annual report will be a particularly interesting read.

[tigerinvest] 06/5/2006 08:34

Chevy,
That is the main reason that I'm still (very) long Celtic. When I was at a shareholders meeting some months ago (which lasted 5 $#@%%$ minutes!), I observed how close the relation was between Celtic and the bankers. After the meeting everybody stayed for some coffee and some off the record chats, giving me the impression that some investors are more equal than others:-)
Combined with the large positions the big boys are building-up, I keep hoping that Kevin has some big ace up his sleeve....

[caiman27] 04/5/2006 15:03

It's interesting that the stock is now being bought in size by Russians - or at least through a Russian broker.

[chevyplus] 03/5/2006 22:29

TigerInvest,
one would have to think something is going on with the last few press reports showing different groups getting good sized positions.My guess is the next one getting back in will be Deutsche Bank.
Chevyplus

[tigerinvest] 28/4/2006 08:45

To be honest, I don't get this. We move up 60% in 2 months without real news etc. Okay, the goldprice increased a lot but not enough to justify this move. I have this feeling that there is really something going on behind the scenes.

[chevyplus] 26/4/2006 22:43

tamref,
I think you may be on the ball as I think the money was in escrow till May.
Surely with a M/Cap of $150m,$90m in the bank and 2 producing mines one would think Celtic are in a very good position.A great warchest to aquire some more assets and away we go.

I think the move in the G/Price will also be a huge bonus as I think the mines in Kaz were producing for around $280/oz nice profits here Id suggest.

Do any readers have thoughts on the reason for golds rise and would you all be interested in having a guesstamit of the price at the end of 2006 ???

My price is U.S.$710.00

Chevyplus

[tamref] 25/4/2006 14:47

I suspect "in the know" insiders are taking positions in advance of announcement on arrival of settlement cash or on new acquisition financed by the said cash.

edit: just a hunch

[bhha2] 25/4/2006 14:39

so what is the reason for this rise

[Abuse team] 25/4/2006 14:25

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[tadtech] 18/4/2006 22:57

Well I pointed out a while back that I thought the stock was seriously undervalued. It seems there are some serious punters acquiring at the moment based on the volumes going through.

[chevyplus] 18/4/2006 22:54

Zolota,

I asked myself the same question about Nez but without going into detail I ran into a few unknowns that left me a little confused.
How much of the mine were we going to retain -- 50%,30%,20% ???
What amount did we need to put into develop the mine ??? Amount related to % I guess.
With the problems we had would we have been able to trust the partners ??? Big question I think.Barrick included.
As I say without going through the complete exercise and doing the numbers one would need to get a true indication I think we have done well.As you rightly point out we will be doing well with our other mines and I would think the money we get from Nez will buy some other assets hopefully not so entangled in drama.
As for the other mines you are right in saying they are getting back on track it would seem and with production at the levels you say and the gold price where it is we are headed in the right direction.

Chevyplus

[zolota] 18/4/2006 09:51

Tiger,

Don't forget that with the rising gold prices the current assets more than justify the current share price. If they can really produce 60,000 ounces this year and 80,000 to 100,000 next year above 600 USD/ounce they will have some serious cash flow.
PS The Russians must be really pleased with their 90 Million purchase of Billions worth of gold.

[tigerinvest] 17/4/2006 10:36

For me this movement is quite intriguing. Are there investors around with more knowledge than us? I wonder what Kevin has up his sleeve....

[doobydave] 12/4/2006 14:49

Yup, I read that too Chevy. Can't disagree. The only thing I'd add is that I'll be much happier when the money is in the bank, which it doesn't appear to be, yet.
DD

[chevyplus] 12/4/2006 14:42

DoobyDave,
as a long time poster on this thread surely we are lucky to get what we did from Alrosa and Co with the way things are changing in Russia.They have seemingly told DeBeers sorry no room for you lot !!! I mean to say a company with the resources as DeBeers not going to offer much resistance to the might of the Oligarchs as they shuffle power and assets where they want.
Realisticly what hope would Celtic have had if they decided to stay and fight ??? They would have had huge legal expenses and in my view lost the cases to boot a complete disaster that has been averted and as I have said before a huge result for Celtic.
We may well have got out in the nick of time.
Chevyplus

Check the link as to what is going on.

[doobydave] 11/4/2006 23:56

Meantime, the chart is looking pretty good. No sign of a pullback yet.

[chevyplus] 11/4/2006 22:56

tamref,
alittle off subject but shows us the way things are going in Russia at the moment with some major realighnments part of which Celtic were involved in.I think we have come through the process with a great result $80 mill. in bank and great warchest so to speak to chase other properties.
I think one of Celtics other assets Victoria Oil and Gas will be keeping an eye on this as they have a closer interest in the outcome.They have been in talks already I think so hope all goes well.
Chevyplus.

Wednesday, April 12, 2006. Issue 3391. Page 1.

Aa Aa Aa


Gazprom Spearheading Bull Market

By Yuriy Humber
Staff Writer
Stocks are hitting new peaks after months of government officials, from President Vladimir Putin down, touting energy supplies and security as the centerpiece of Russia's G8 presidency.

Putin has penned articles in the international press promoting the energy issue, the Kremlin hosted a February summit of Group of Eight finance ministers at which energy took center stage, and Russia is leading the world in developing its nuclear-energy market.

While oil and gas stocks have spearheaded the rise, nonenergy companies such as Norilsk Nickel, UES and Sberbank have similarly helped boost Russia's second major trading spree of 2006, following the January-February boom. State-controlled oil and gas behemoth Gazprom is leading the rally, becoming the world's sixth-largest company Monday when its market value hit $227 billion, putting it ahead of Royal Dutch Shell. The Russian firm is now $10 billion behind oil giant British Petroleum.

The country's economic fate is closely intertwined with Gazprom, which pays a full 20 percent of all tax revenues going to the federal government. More than once, the Kremlin has used Gazprom as a negotiating chip to gain political influence abroad -- most recently, in Belarus and Moldova.


But some London investment bankers believe the energy company has become overvalued. And ratings agency Standard & Poor's on Tuesday questioned Gazprom's dependability as a gas provider to Europe, issuing an 11-page report detailing concerns about Russia and Gazprom.

"We have some issues with policy predictability in Russia," David Beers, head of the agency's sovereign ratings division, said in a Moscow briefing Tuesday. Russia's sovereign rating is BBB, one notch below Saudi Arabia's A, which Beers attributed to Saudi Arabia's higher net incomes and assets.

Any upgrade of the sovereign rating, which indicates how risky it is to invest in a country, would require structural reform and a tight fiscal policy, Beers said, noting that may be tough given the presidential election in 2008.

In the Tuesday report, Standard & Poor's said that despite the good news for Gazprom, it would not upgrade its rating of the company, citing institutional and transit risks. "We would review Gazprom for an upgrade when we see the company has greater commercial independence," Alexei Novikov, head of Standard & Poor in Russia and the CIS, said at the Tuesday briefing.

While the Standard & Poor's report resonated with some London investment banks, it drew sharp criticism in Moscow, where analysts said the Russian government was unlikely to heed the ratings firm's advice.

Meanwhile, the two biggest ratings agencies, Fitch and Moody's, could upgrade Russia's sovereign rating this year given the country's expected budget surplus, said Yevgeny Nadorshin, an economist with Trust investment bank. Russia's fiscal indicators and debt rating already merit a higher sovereign rating, added Mikhail Galkin, a Trust analyst familiar with S&P's methodology.

Still, Nadorshin suggested, Standard & Poor's concerns about government spending were legitimate: State spending has increased this year at a rate surpassing economic growth, Nadorshin said. In 2006, Russia's federal budget will make up 17.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product, a 22 percent rise over the previous year, he said.

But, Nadorshin added, the spending splurge has not had many negative impacts, the Kremlin's struggle to rein in inflation notwithstanding. Deutsche UFG on Monday cited Vneshtorgbank's recent issue of long-term eurobonds in rubles -- the first time that a ruble-denominated eurobond has been placed in international markets -- as an example of confidence in the country's economic health.

It seems that other foreign investors feel the same way. While inflows of money into funds that invest in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States temporarily slackened last month, as the domestic market corrected after it gained a quick 32 percent in the first two months of the year, interest in Moscow stocks has revived, said Erik DePoy, an equity strategist with Alfa Bank.

In March, India eclipsed Russia as a hot emerging market, DePoy added. In the last week, he said, Russia has rejoined India in first place. More than $1 billion has been added to Russia- and CIS-focused funds since January, DePoy said.

Also driving Russian stocks is the transformation of the energy sector, more mergers and acquisitions and high commodity prices, he said.

Still, DePoy said, "the bottom line is energy. The foie gras for investors this year will be when Gazprom picks its Shtockmann partners." Gazprom has plans to develop the Shtokman gas field in the Barents Sea with foreign partners.

How this project fares -- and how Gazprom fares on the world stage -- will dramatically impact Russia's overall well-being, said Yulia Tseplyaeva, chief economist at ING Bank in Moscow.

While Gazprom may continue attracting investors, it will never be an independent company, Tseplyaeva said, raising questions about Russia's portrayal of itself as a modern, free-market state when it hosts the G8 summit in St. Petersburg this summer.

"Gazprom is a state," Tseplyaeva said. "It is too much a part of the Russian sovereign state to become a corporation in its own right. It would be great for Gazprom to act like a profit maximizer, but we will not see this before 2008, and I highly doubt we'll see it after that."

[Abuse team] 08/4/2006 18:26

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[tamref] 05/4/2006 14:05

Fair enough Chevy. I've no reason to believe management are dragging their heels, but it is annoying that they've built up a track record of consistently failing to meet targets since I first took a stake in CER in Sept 2000. An RNS explaining the reason for the delay wouldn't go astray though. Still, I've waited nearly 6 years for something positive to come from Nez, so I'm sure I can wait a little longer.

Gold on the up again :)


edit: will forgive all if announcement comes tomorrow to coincide with new tax year.