Nope, copper is rising today.
$5.12 |
Copper prices have finally rolled over, with losses seen in both New York and London as the arbitrage window between the two futures exchanges is closing amid speculation the US administration aims to introduce tariffs within weeks. (Saxo) |
Question is what will happen if/when?! Trump puts tariffs on copper imports. hxxps://finimize.com/content/copper-prices-spike-as-us-tariff-concerns-drag-on |
Nice bowl on copper chart. |
All time high for copper yet share price flat. |
Copper price is up 30% year on year.
Forward P/E is running at about 6. |
5.374 is another all time high for futures. Meanwhile LME pricing has broken above the 4.5 level set last September when the share price peaked above £2
Bemused that this has not risen past £2, but can shrug shoulders as will qualify for another dividend in a month |
Saxo's Ole Hansen:
HG copper futures surged to a fresh record high overnight at $5.374 on speculation Trump my implement import tariffs within weeks, much earlier than expected. With LME prices in London falling, this much sought after energy transition metal now trades at a 17% premium in NY, highlighting an increased binary risk depending on the eventual tariff level.
.... so the LME price is well behind the NY price, but:
The [London] price of copper is likely to set new records this year at $12,000 or more a tonne, according to several of the world’s largest trading houses, lifted by growing global demand and the threat of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. |
Copper flying again |
Some are saying copper could hit $12,000 |
With a 13% decrease, that still gives a current non-US (LME) price of Cu = 4.5.
Which is still really good for CAML for the past few months / going forward.
If there's a 10% drop in US (New York) prices (tariffs cancelled), the non-US (LME) price could remain at 4.5 anyway.
There wouldn't be a further 10% drop in the LME price as that's already priced in. |
I guess trivial.
initial capital of US$88.5m with a post-tax NPV of US$34.1m and IRR of 19.1% based on a long-term copper price of US$6,600/t |
From the accounts
In February 2025, the Company agreed the sale of its 76% equity interest in Copper Bay Limited and its subsidiaries. The whole consideration is contingent on the potential future production of copper. Completion of the sale is expected in March 2025. Copper Bay Limited was held for sale during the reporting period.
Does anybody know if this could be a trivial or significant amount? |
Or will there be a 'normalisation' of copper prices as the tariff blip works its way out of the equation over the next quarter or so? |
 >>why isn't CAML following>>
This is from Saxo, last week. It explains why the New York price is so much higher than the LME price that CAML receives:
Copper increasingly exposed to a binary tariffs event
The New York-traded High Grade copper futures reached a record closing high on Thursday at USD 5.1120 a pound, marking a culmination of a month-long surge that has triggered a major dislocation between US prices and the rest of the world. A development driven, not by strong fundamental demand, but mostly by a phenomenal arbitrage window that has been opened due to Trump’s push for tariffs on imports of the metal.
Ahead of a potential announcement of tariffs, a decision that could still be months away given the time an investigation carried out under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act normally takes, traders have been rushing copper to the US in order to log in premiums of up to 13% relative to prices in London, a move that has helped tighten the rest of the world where more than 90% of global demand is consumed. It’s worth noting that holding a high-grade futures position at a 13% premium to London has raised binary risks in the market, meaning prices could suddenly drop by more than 10% if no tariffs are introduced or surge even higher if the level is 25%, in line with those applied on steel and aluminum. |
Copper on the up for some time, why isn't CAML following? |
Copper surging. |
"That level of earnings would put this at a 4.2X-5.3X price/earnings, or 3.4X-4.3X if you strip out the cash (as it was at 31/12/24)." |
Agreed the investment is tiny, and the time commitment is small as outlined during the presentation of the results.
But its pointless.
Can you really see a nice big open cast mine getting permitting just down the road from Muriel? What with her breathing. And her cat. |
Justice is right the investment is peanuts. They obviously know something. Is for the results they were good and just topped up at £1.60. Should find support here. |
The investment is miniscule. |
Probably not, would add at least 5 years to the start date. Some Stan will probably be the end result or I would be happy if they took a chunk of AAZ or JVd with them as it looks like they have too much on their plate. |
@mwj1959
Agree entirely. It’s the most off putting part of the co.
It’ll be tied up in legal for years with NIMBYs when it comes to the crunch. |
Is investment in a UK focused explorer (Aberdeen) really the best use of cash, given that getting a mine up and running is likely to be extremely challenging? |
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