TKO is great because of Florence. It is countered by the fact that Gib output would presumably be tariffed.
I've got a position for Florence though. Seems undervalued as they expect first production at the end of the year. |
Obviously if you are generating FCF and don't need funding you are in a better position but t doesn't detract from my basic position that valuations are far towards cheap. There are signs that the strength of gold is leading to a rotation into gold miners. You would expect copper to follow. |
The answer is to have a producing mine and FCF whilst pursuing inorganic or mine development. Caml can do this and TKO are doing it very successfully. The dogs are the non producing pie in the sky projects as you know very well Donald cough PXC cough. |
The valuation of all copper miners ATM is ridiculous. It makes it a great time to buy, but not using your own paper. Therein lies the challenge |
Agree entirely. No chance IMO they would accept anything other than cash (at least in a very large majority). Convinced CAML could raise that level of cash if they were minded though |
Good to see you here as well Jbravo!
CAML is ridiculously cheap at the moment, given the current metals prices.
In my view, absolutely zero chance of AAZ accepting an all-paper bid from CAML. Why would Reza and the board (circa 40% owners of AAZ) accept shares in a different entity for their retirement plans? |
Just keep adding a few here and there.
Surely this will have a decent rise as it goes towards ex-dividend in May.
May's far too far away for most punters / traders.
I don't judge my portfolio so much by share price, but by dividends paid annually.
In this climate of UK stocks not really going anywhere, focussing on increasing your yearly dividend payments is a great way to invest.
After all, that's kind of what really matters anyway. |
Results on Thursday, right?
Declare divi then too I think... |
Copper futures climbed toward $4.90 per pound on Monday, nearing a ten-month high, as China’s latest stimulus measures boosted demand expectations in the world’s largest copper consumer. The policy package, unveiled over the weekend, includes efforts to increase household income, spur spending, and support population growth, reinforcing optimism for stronger industrial demand. Further supporting prices were expectations that US President Donald Trump may impose tariffs on copper imports, a move that could strain the limited capacity of domestic smelters. Currently, the US imports nearly half of its copper supply, relying on just two major smelters for domestic production. While reports suggest these tariffs could take effect later this year, the White House’s recent escalation of base metal tariffs on Canada has heightened concerns that copper levies may be implemented sooner than expected. |
Yes, AAZ is always going to have political and operational risk, but all that is more than in the price now IMO. It feels like AAZ is on the cusp of a significant re-rate. Lately when something in my PF has felt like that some other company has popped up with an all share offer or the like to nab most of the gain that I was anticipating! So this is CAML's chance. |
@Arlington
It's hard to see anywhere else they can get their hands on that amount of copper for what would be such a low price. Surely it wouldn't cost much more than Sasa!
I suspect they might have been put off by the suspension in production while the dam was checked over the last year though. |
spookies - have a look at PHSC if you want to see buybacks working on a share price. |
Now would be a very good time to make an all share offer for AAZ then, before it rerates significantly. |
Finite resource that they need to extend by acquisition. |
Apart from country and operational risk that we all understand, what is keeping this down here? Must be recession fears. |
Of all the shares I have watched and owned over the last 10 years none have benefitted
from buybacks. Prices have either remained static or dropped. Dividends for me only. |
As you say no volume. A $40m buyback would address that, equals 80,000 shares a day over a year. Done in 5000 blocks would soon shift the share price. People have been buying this for the dividend all the way down from 3 quid, there are a lot of punters sitting on big losses. |
No recent notices of major holders selling, just one accumulating. Almost no volume to speak of presently. |
Funds look like they’re ditching anyway. How this can tread water at the lowest price in years, when metals are up this year. Money in the bank and big profits. Madness. |
There might be more liquidity if the share price was higher. |
If you remove too much liquidity the Funds will ditch it so I'm not in favour of a buyback, can't say it is really needed with the divi. |
Share buy back programme is the other solution here. |
The cynic in me thinks insiders know something...insider trading is rife in the market. Or like Assura it's being held down for a bidder to put in a low ball offer. They're all bar stewards...rigged and corrupt. Look at PAF. Gold is at $3,000, their forward P/E is as low as 3 and yet the share price remains static!! |
Nice tracker Zanmantate, good control of the cash cost of production by the company will amplify this disparity and should be the fundamental driver of a re-rate
The dividend is well covered, sleep easy :-) |
Agree. My thoughts:https://x.com/zanmantate/status/1899820665198293309?s=46&t=jxVatkbTJUSw-AC_NTYHsw |
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