Centaur Media Share Discussion Threads

[diogenesj] 02/2/2005 21:12

It can be very grim, DoQ. However, you talked me into buying ERG, and they're up 40%, so I have no complaints. :-)

[doubleorquits] 02/2/2005 18:45

Hi D and Alf. Well, at least we all know that there were no sell today. :0)
Of course, I would normally sceprical of TDW purchases as they are not always reported it seems, although in this case your wife's buy is there. yesterday purchased 7500 MCGN and did not get it reported at all (TDW again) but it made me wonder how much trading was being done without our knowledge. At least with ADVFN you know there is a trade - whether it is a sell or a buy is another matter.

I am quietly confident here although I shall be getting frustrated and a little more anxious if we haven't moved up by 1st March. Anyhow enough of the others making up for static ones. Not often XNC has fallen two days in a row but then SVS has decided to take off today. MOB can't be subdued either. Just hope that when they have their little pause something like CAU decides to fly.

Now what would be eery is if CAU started to move forward tomorrow and tracked the progress ERG made in November.

As for holding babies - I don't think so but then I haven't done that for a while so can't remember what it feels like :0)

[diogenesj] 02/2/2005 16:12

Well, I've bought 5,000 through Stocktrade at 99.75p, and 4,384 with the balance on my wife's ISA account at 98.9p through the appalling TD Waterhouse (now showing as a sell).

The unspeakable TDW did get a better price, but kept me on the phone for half an hour listening to muzak because the website refused to recognise that this was no longer an Aim stock. Personally I'd rather have paid the extra and got it over with. (My wife will be moving her account shortly, because TDW have cut the interest on temporary cash holdings in PEP and ISA accounts to a rip-off 0.5%.)

But enough about me. How are you, Alf and DoQ? Eerily quiet here, isn't it? Does it mean we have been left holding the baby?

[doubleorquits] 02/2/2005 14:44

Decided to top up with 5k just now. Spreadis actually very small 98.9p-98.44p and the deal is showing as a sell (certainly on Proquote)

[diogenesj] 01/2/2005 20:16

Timing was never my strong point, DoQ - I think the moment is approaching, though.

[doubleorquits] 01/2/2005 19:05

D, will you please let me know when that happens? I really don't know, Alf but we need to get in before they start motoring - if, of course, they behave themselves. Looking at ERG for comparison, that one started late Oct and early November. By the 3rd Nov it looked ready to go and then followed through for the rest of month, stopping for breath only occasionally, before continuing on its way through December. Now if CAU follows that pattern tomorrow could be the low with a 40% rise to come by the end of March.

However, it is never as simple as that, is it?

Follow the sage when it comes to timing the buys. If Diogenes dips his toe in at any point that is a big buy signal - I think I even persuaded him to get some ERG against his better thinking. I think he may be a little bit happier now that he did.

I am certainly looking to top up in the next few days - it might be worth doing it on the first tick up from here (or lower).

[diogenesj] 01/2/2005 18:27

Let me guess: when they stop falling? :-)

[alfwilson] 01/2/2005 17:06

DoQ

At what stage / date do we add more?

[doubleorquits] 11/1/2005 09:54

Centaur is a media company riding the wave of recovery at the moment it seems. Full year results showed the business improving and a statement issued with the results confirmed this by saying Q1 trading was ahead of the same period last year. This was confirmed again in November with another statement saying that trading in the 4 months to Oct 31 saw revenues up 13 pct, and the FY outlook was promising. The company added that its EBITDA in the period was also "significantly ahead of last year, despite the impact of continued investment in new products, and EBITDA margins improved strongly year on year, as planned."

The company also moved to the main list from Aim in December thereby putting themselves on the radar of institutions. Aegon already hold more than 3% of the company and Derek Stuart of Artemis has bought, adding to his holdings in Future Network, Centaur and Taylor Nelson Sofres, although he is keen to stress these are stock specific picks rather than sector plays. The impending interims in March should underline the progress made and the move to the main list should see them joining the SMX. Bridgewell have upgraded their forecasts for 2006 to 6.46p for 2006 which puts them on a PE of around 16. However, the growth looks to be there – figures for 2006 show an increase of 30% on their 2005 figures and about 25% over the forecasts of Numis who last gave a view in early December just after the trading update. They do not appear to have a figure for 2006 yet.

These are not screamingly cheap but I feel they are in a recovering sector and that they could beat expectations. At the moment this is underpinned by entry into the SMX and so I feel there should be a quick 20% in these. After that it might be time to review the investment but these could surprise and with hardly any following- this is the first thread.

A PE of 20 in the media sector, for a company with a main listing, is not it appears, massively expensive although more than I usually like. But if growth continues, and even accelerates, these could be doing nearly 6p this year and 8.5p next. A PE of 20 on growth of 40% would then imply a PEG of 0.5 and decent value up to 170p. They certainly appear to be off most people's radar if this BB is anything to go by!