Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[martinfrench] 06/6/2019 14:01

simba,

yes rate cuts create a lower dollar which in turn feeds into a higher gold price (or all commods priced in dollars).

however, dont expect fireworks on the day of the rate cut as its usually priced in to a certain extent (say 90% etc)

the moves daily on rate expectations not the odd interest change here or there.

Here is the process on a daily basis:


1. daily US economic statitics (> expectations, dollar positive, based on strong economy, leads to increased interest rate rises
2. dollar rises or falls based on 1
3. weak dollar great for commods prices
4. gold goes up, so SHOULD centamin

reverse also true

Gold is a slightly funny commodity as it doesnt really work in same way as others like oil, which while affected by the dollar price, is also very much demand and supply driven. So you can have a weak dollar suggesting a rate cut suggesting it should rise, but a rate cut also suggests less oil demand so it can go either way. Gold not so much, has its own peculiarities but not really demand driven.

[simba_] 06/6/2019 13:47

If the fed cuts, which markets are highly betting on. Does that mean lower dollar and higher gold?. I'm seeing people say 1380 as the crucial level to break. If it does, CEY reaches for previous highs. .Views anyone?

[wallywoo] 06/6/2019 11:55

Cey acquired the assets in Dec 2013, when the gold price was $1200. They spend A$40.9 million (£22.5M) in shares (CEY shares were worth 44p then - so approx double the value in todays SP) for the assets. In every year since they have spent around $15M developing these assets (approx $75M in total). So say total cost to date $100M (very approx)

They have approx 4.5M ounces in defined gold so far (in total). Very unlikely to be written off. In 2 countries that are extremely hot in the gold mining world (ie low costs, mining friendly etc)

You are right in that they are not in the share price though IMO

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/6/2019 11:25

Wally and all "contributors"....what's spent on Ivory West Africa? In actual fact it's spent and free cash flow distributed but we have a good float. Based on the current output, cost of output and gold price, the MCAP has valued West Africa at zero. Be disappointed if it is written off but if it's a resource then we will rocket.

[wallywoo] 06/6/2019 11:10

Update due soon which will include their plans for gold mine in Cote d’Ivoire (and PEA), and production guidance for 2020 and 2021.

that should provide interesting reading and also much needed assurance that CEY are a stable and future proof investment

I also expect gold price to be strong for the next few months at least. Will be very surprised if this takes another dip down now.

[darnoc64] 06/6/2019 10:55

Agreed, above a quid close would be very positive; I may even be tempted to buy back in if it does.

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/6/2019 10:43

I think a close above a quid will be significant. I'm sure you make plenty of good decisions. This is an ok income yield at a quid but with loads of upside potential. 4% yield, risk to 80p, potential to 200p in 12 months. I'm not going anywhere.

[darnoc64] 06/6/2019 10:03

After two rejections of the £1 level I sold out yesterday at 98.3, at the close of play. Looking like a bad decision now, but hey ho, we make our choices based on what we perceive will happen, our risk management and psychological baggage; just have to learn to accept those decisions, even when they are wrong.

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/6/2019 09:42

If production drop issues are resolved, which they appear to be, its still under priced. I can't plan for surprise good news however big movements now are more like to be up due to good news on their exploration.

[maddog68] 06/6/2019 09:38

Kenny I bought a few yesterday at 99.3 just the 4000 shares currently about £70 plus in profit not sure if to hold as a Bit volatile, was lucky enough to be in before and make a nice profit before it fell off a cliff.

[gregpeck7] 06/6/2019 09:19

SRB is really starting to move chaps, up 30% yesterday.. Fill those gold miner boots.

[kennyp52] 06/6/2019 09:17

Lol Boris . He’s back over pontificating in the penny share bankruptcy boards . 120 would be very nice . It’s boiling up for a move . POG was attempted to stall by the banks at 3pm yesterday but it looks like it’s still going to rise despite the interference. Wait and see mode

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/6/2019 09:16

Prat has a dabble yesterday. Got in at 103 but bailed at 98.5 A's didn't want to hold over night in case good news RNS came in. He's struggling with this money and shares thing. Bless. Lucky 4% of FA is FA.

[stevedaytrader] 06/6/2019 09:02

100% agree- I was 50% out at 102.2 avg back in again at near close 99avg as did not want to be out overnight- will just prob leave today as golfing lol, plus fear of missing mass gain is greater than the fear of losing a few quid.

[kennyp52] 06/6/2019 08:57

Stevedaytrader ... me too ... sold a few at 103.3 but as soon as it hit sub 102 I got into buy mode again and ended up buying in the low 101s which looked like a proper plank play come the end of the day . Not so bad now it’s back up but this share price flying all over the place ATM . Problem here is any good news could trigger another big rise so you don’t want to be out but the movement is really tempting

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/6/2019 08:55

Really. The moon made of cheese?

[kennyp52] 06/6/2019 08:52

Looks like directors just picked up over 600k in free shares under their bonus plan. Interesting they have exercised it before the RNS or am I reading too much into it 🤔

The Company will release 3-year outlook, including 2020 and 2021 guidance, in Q2 2019.

[stevedaytrader] 06/6/2019 08:42

Did some out and back in yesterday as most did- Bloomberg interesting last night on commodities, said gold is the way to go and should it get past 1375 at last after a long while, it could fly- fingers crossed all.

[kennyp52] 06/6/2019 08:35

Just watched a 2p drop followed by a 3p rise in 5 minutes ... manipulation of the share price ?????? Looks like a load of auto trade stop losses kicked in then a load of auto buys kicked in . Settled to trading now and healthy uplift to 101p . Very volatile . Low trade 95.92 ! Wow . Roller coaster is back

[plat hunter] 05/6/2019 20:36

Always said that bitcoin and gold are inversely correlated.Play both, DT you'll smash it up

[dt1010] 05/6/2019 18:52

Bitcoin taking a breather.....finding base before its inevitable break of $10,000 later in the year. Litecoin is the one to watch for 2 months though.