Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[broken record] 03/4/2019 19:10

Going down the swanny 50p

[plat hunter] 03/4/2019 18:12

I don't have an agenda Boris, where as you have clearly demonstrated yours. Good luck with it however.

[borisjohnsonshair] 03/4/2019 17:30

Holding yes. I weather many storms. You aren't, so what's your agenda. Jog on.

[juju44] 03/4/2019 17:21

We have escaped the blade for another day

[plat hunter] 03/4/2019 16:47

Never a truer word Boris,

Only one of us is patient though, the other has already bought and is trying to ramp

[borisjohnsonshair] 03/4/2019 16:41

Either you are short or lost a load, sold up and are bitter and twisted. The market is a place where impatient people pass their money to patient people. Thanks Plat.....I owe it all to you!

[plat hunter] 03/4/2019 16:33

Erm.. No it isn't I think we have different interpretations of the 65 million quoted in the audit financials then.

But hey ho, i guess I'm not holding and have nothing to ramp.

[borisjohnsonshair] 03/4/2019 16:17

Well said sir

[jfishy55] 03/4/2019 16:06

Plat, I see your made up nonsense and raise you company guidance, RNS figures & accounts!

"Half the cash in the pot than this time last year"

CEYs stated intention is to keep circa $300m in the pot - it has maintained this for a few years now. Sure, timing of payments from one day to the next could make a difference, however, there is always $300m in the pot (we can see this from the dividend being paid out of free cash-flow, not cash-flow).

"Improvements in basket price have been non existence"

Basket price? Non existence?
Not sure what you mean...however, CEY is currently basing its guidance on $1250 oz gold and gold has been above that all year.

"No debt YET but everyone knows cash flow no longer cover pipeline capex
lower production"

Nonsense!
Revenue for 2018 was $603.2m, revenue is expected to increase this year.
Capex was $96.8m - significantly less! Guidance is for lower capex this year, however, there may be capital projects such as solar farm to pay for.

How about the dividend? It was 100% of *FREE* cash-flow.

I have no idea where the share price will go short term but the fundamentals show that CEY is well positioned to weather a storm (and did indeed do this several times in 2018) whilst still turning a profit, paying dividend, not taking on debt & not issuing paper. If you can give some objective reasons as why this would not be the case then I would be most grateful as I would then want to sell but in the meantime I think I'll hold and top-up on the 6th :-)

[juju44] 03/4/2019 15:58

George , I guess thats possible although the recent pattern fits a triple bottom nicely . Certainly very shaky - old Raghy knew what he was doing jumping ship 18 months ago . Its been downhill ever since

[ukgeorge] 03/4/2019 15:49

Juju, do you not think the 11th september 86.3 close 84p low would also be support.

Sure does not look good.

I guess 70p area is next area of support.

[borisjohnsonshair] 03/4/2019 15:25

Fundamentals my friend.

[juju44] 03/4/2019 15:24

Previous low was 87.8p in early March . hard to be optimistic . Glad I sold a tranche last week and preparing to push the button again . Not looking good

[borisjohnsonshair] 03/4/2019 15:17

Daft to hold yesterday and thinking about selling before update. This is binary

[juju44] 03/4/2019 14:59

My finger is hovering over the sell button

[borisjohnsonshair] 03/4/2019 14:33

Disappointing day but at least I don't have a useless brain.

[plat hunter] 03/4/2019 13:27

What fundamentals are a screaming buy then?

PE is nigh on 18 times,
Half the cash in the pot than this time last year
Improvements in basket price have been non existence
No debt YET but everyone knows cash flow no longer cover pipeline capex
lower production
i could go on but the reasons to just watch this are many

Sure you might miss the bottom by sitting on the sides but you're 100% guaranteed to not lose any money by not buying.

[jfishy55] 03/4/2019 13:23

"what the market would make of a plus 120oz production figure for the quarter"

Given the current guidance for Q1 is 105koz to 115koz, I expect the market will be delighted...and the opposite if they report 100koz!

[wallywoo] 03/4/2019 13:05

Trader: sure you can play the moving averages game OR you can buy on fundamentals and chart analysis since this:

1) has no debt, has US $1.28B of net assets, with a market cap around the same. Gold reserves steadily growing and very healthy at 15M odd ounces (of course gold reserves are not listed as a physical asset, but are, albeit being realised at some future time, and cost / profit)

2) chart wise this is a major support level, I guess it is possible it could drop but would need major bad news.

3) you miss out on 3 cents divi being paid later this month (buy now hold for 13 months and you likely get 10%+ divi - ie this yrs full yr, half yr and next yrs)

4) you miss out on bottom fishing premium rise (if that happens)

If production was in trouble for Q1 we would know already. Figures will be fine IMHO. Not long to wait

[trader365] 03/4/2019 12:45

Punting and gambling some good risk management strategy there lol

[bulltradept] 03/4/2019 12:44

"As has been noted without guidance this is looking a little under valued and able to rocket."

Erm I respectfully suggest you don't understand that the market wants and needs guidance. I think you are looking at it completely and utterly in the wrong way.

But that's just me.