Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[borisjohnsonshair] 25/2/2019 14:09

No only will we have higher output but a much higher average gold price. Anyone in now will get a 10% yield & 50%-75% capital appreciation in a year.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/2/2019 14:08

#DT1010, nibbling away myself too, not in big bites, a few '000 at a time.., it's all about the average price when you hit the target holding.., we might see 100p tomorrow or might not, either way is fine shopping on days like this at these levels..!

[ukgeorge] 25/2/2019 14:01

This is so high grade that it is worth more to collectors than if we process it into dore.

8m @ 180g/t

[ukgeorge] 25/2/2019 13:59

These are a couple of great bits

Underground decline development scheduled to progress at the Cleopatra decline and Amun/Ptah decline, preparing access to future stoping and further exploration access to Bast and Top of Horus, supporting near and long-term growth upside.

Exploration upside(6)

· Sukari updated reserve and resource effective date 30 June 2018. Continuous exploration throughout H2 returned very strong results and generated highly prospective target extensions to the existing Amun and Ptah underground:

o (outside R&R) Drill highlights: 8m @ 180g/t

3m @ 428g/t

15m @ 18.5 g/t

1.2m @ 563g/t

3.6m @ 176g/t

[creditcrunchies] 25/2/2019 13:58

Thanks for the dividend info trouble is it's worse than last year which was 10 cents per share. That's why everybody dumped

[dt1010] 25/2/2019 13:53

Agree 105p is a bargain and clearly this is overdone as the coming days and weeks will show

Today was and is a hell of a good buying opportunity.

I just bought 10,000 more and now hold close to 85,000 shares in this.

Edit: 96,000 shares.

[devonlad] 25/2/2019 13:49

Nibbled a few, starting to get a bit of strength.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/2/2019 13:47

490-520K/Ounce 2019 guidance is way better than the 472K/Oz for 2018, the company is not suddenly worth -20% the next day on an upgraded guidance, it just isn't.., it's oversold and now buying at 105p thanks very much.. :o)

20 year LOM, and 20 years of compound dividend income or free shares return of somewhere between 5-10%..

The 3c dividend is pretty poor, but that was for last years work..!

[borisjohnsonshair] 25/2/2019 13:44

CEY ain't changed but maybe you need to change your pants.

[dt1010] 25/2/2019 13:32

Wise words Boris

[borisjohnsonshair] 25/2/2019 13:30

That's just the thing. It actually doesn't. The price has changed a hell of a lot but the company hasn't. That's the way successful investors look at things. Hold on, top up and watch how rich you slowly get. The best way to get poor is to try to get rich quick.

[charles clore] 25/2/2019 13:18

What a difference a day makes!

[andyj] 25/2/2019 13:08

They are fairly reliable at disappointing on results day, but if the gold price maintains its current level then it will recover. IC have kept their buy rec FWIW.

[spacedust] 25/2/2019 12:56

Down from 12p

[jacks13] 25/2/2019 12:52

Final dividend of 3.0 cents a share, bringing total dividend to 5.5 cents a share for the year.

[creditcrunchies] 25/2/2019 12:43

If these hit 90p again I'll top up hopefully before they go XD. Anybody know what the dividend will be?

[zcaprd7] 25/2/2019 12:41

And what happened to the previous signed agreement?

[sidarthur2] 25/2/2019 12:41

BE
And we have Barrick-Newmont crossing the tape.

11:05 am
BE
BARRICK MAKES PROPOSAL TO BUY NEWMONT IN ALL-STOCK DEAL

BE
BARRICK HOLDERS WOULD OWN ABOUT 55.9% OF MERGED CO WITH NEWMONT

DJ morning
BE
BARRICK, NEWMONT DEAL EXCHANGE RATIO OF 2.5694 BARRICK SHARES

11:06 am
BE
That should make today's BMO gold conference more interesting than usual


11:09 am
BE
Whichever way, it's an amazingly aggressive bit of deal engineering.

BornCynic Centamin please BE? Whilst you are on gold miners...........
BE
Let me throw in some grey, obviously stale now but still useful.

BE
JPMorgan.

11:11 am
BE
The logic for this proposal is that it would unlock synergies from consolidating Barrick's and Newmont's large mining footprints in Nevada and probably Colorado.

BE
We estimate this opportunity could be worth at least US$3bn. We feel it’s unlikely that Newmont shareholders would be willing to share this equally with Barrick when it is likely close to concluding its own accretive deal with Goldcorp. Media speculation also mentioned that Newcrest may have a role to play as an acquirer of non-core Australian assets. We think NCM's balance sheet could comfortably absorb US$4bn in cash-based acquisitions; going above this level may require equity


BE
Audacious rather than impossible is the term we’d
use for the idea that, just after incoming CEO Mark Bristow officially begins the task of optimizing the Barrick assets, the company would look at a big new deal. Generally, a company in Barrick’s position would be considered to be out of the market. Yet we have to consider where new management can create value in Barrick. When Barrick was talking with Newmont about a deal in 2014 we recall the total synergies discussed were ~US$800m a year, of which perhaps US$500m were to be sourced from Nevada. Four years of cost cutting have likely reduced these to perhaps a conservative US$250-350m/year, but over 10 years this is still the equivalent of the full value of one of Newmont’s best mines like Tanami & we wouldn’t be surprised at claims that the synergies could be significantly higher.

And RBC.

BE
Our Barrick-Newmont merger scenario analysis based on our models at $1,300/oz gold indicates that
on a per-share basis, an at-the-market merger would be 21% accretive to Barrick shareholders on 3-year
attributable free cash flow (FCF), relatively neutral to EBITDA and operating cash flow (OCF), and 5%
dilutive on an NAV basis (Exhibit 1). As such, the same scenario would be accretive to NEM shareholders
on the basis of NAV (+21%), 3-year EBITDA and OCF (+13% and +9%) while 2% dilutive to near-term
FCF per share.

11:14 am
BE


11:15 am
BE
And at the other end of the pile, there's Centamin.

11:15 am
Centamin PLC (CEY:LSE): Last: 109.10, down 25.25 (-18.79%), High: 133.70, Low: 104
BE
2019 guidance at the bottom of the range suggests no improvement from 2018.

11:16 am
BE
And given 2018 was meant to be an exceptionally bad year, this is being read as very negative.

BE
Management was already in the doghouse. This hasn't helped at all.

BE
There was also a bit of hope in the price that there might've been a better final dividend .....

11:18 am
BE
.. but weak production + fixed costs = the obvious so they're playing cautious.

BE
Numbers summarised by Goldman:

BE
Key points
Revenues: The company reported revenue of US$603mn vs. consensus
n(Starmine) estimates of US$599.4mn. This was also in line with our estimate of US$604mn.
EBITDA - came in at US$258mn, in line with consensus estimate of US$258mn.
nIt was c. 4% below our estimate of US$270mn on higher costs.
Dividend: The company announced a dividend USc3/share - which takes the final
ndividend to USc5.5/shr. This is in line with consensus estimates but below our estimates of USc6.5/shr.
Guidance: 1) 2019 production guidance is c. 490-520Koz. 2) Cash cost of
nproduction in 2019 is expected to be between US$675-US$725 per ounce produced and AISC between US$890-US$950 per ounce sold. 3) Capital expenditure of US$118 million, of which US$89.2 million is sustaining capital investment, including ongoing underground development and phased fleet rebuild programme. 4) Exploration budget is US$40mn.

11:19 am
BE
And RBC with a bit more detail.

BE
Overall CEY’s FY18 results were -4% weaker than (last available) company consensus and -3% below our estimates at EBITDA. We thought CEY
had the potential to pay out a final dividend above policy given the group’s strong cash balance (FY18: $322 mn) and disappointing operational performance in
2018. Instead US3.0c/sh was in line with policy, taking the FY pay-out to US5.5c/sh -29% below our forecast and broadly in line with consensus. Looking
beyond the results, it is the FY19 outlook that we think is more negative today. Volume guidance of 490-520koz is in line with our 514koz forecast but below
(last available) consensus of 560koz. We think that as a minimum the Street would have been expecting a return to levels similar to or in line with FY17’s actual
production of 545koz and would also note that initial FY18 guidance was 580koz.
On top of the lower volumes produced stripping appears to have increased materially in 2019 to include material movement for Stage 5 of the open pit. This, and
we assume some deferred sustaining capital from 2018, drives All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) guidance to US$890-950/oz higher than our $886/oz forecast and
(last available) consensus of $809/oz. This would suggest lower cashflow and dividends especially as capex for a proposed solar farm and new Tailings Storage
Facility (TSF) remain subject to board approval and are not included in this guidance. Given the operational issues in 2018, it is also potentially concerning that
Mark Morcombe, CEY’s COO, has apparently left the group to join Endeavour Mining, according to a press release from Endeavour last week. The one bright
spot we can see in today’s release is on underground reserves where grades have risen +10% YoY to 5.6g/t on broadly flat ounces. Changes in cut-off grades
with the open pit make it more difficult to reconcile on a like-for-like basis. On second decline Cleopatra at the Sukari mine development will continue but there
is little “new” in terms of commitment to targets for first ounces. We expect more colour on this morning’s call.
We continue to rate CEY Sector Perform. We see potential downgrades flowing through from this morning’s FY19 outlook, particularly on the cost front. We
also think three downgrades to production guidance in 2018 have negatively impacted the group’s credibility with investors and that this will take a number of
quarters to reverse.

[dt1010] 25/2/2019 12:37

Yes it is.

[bor491] 25/2/2019 12:32

I don't really like the Egyptian government asking for more every time they make a bit of money... -> what do you mean? this is set at a % on the agreement they signed no?

[borisjohnsonshair] 25/2/2019 12:25

I was right but alas the direction wasn't as hoped

[c9ajl] 25/2/2019 12:22

I didn't see any update on the court case in today's RNS. Does anyone know if this was discussed on the conference call?I'm guessing no news.Thanks

[zcaprd7] 25/2/2019 12:18

I've been looking and waiting to pounce on these, thought I'd missed the boat. Any target prices for the drop? Back to the lows? I don't really like the Egyptian government asking for more every time they make a bit of money...

[ken tennis] 25/2/2019 12:09

KENNYP I baught back in this morning after selling out Friday but will wait till dust settles before I take any more. But really glad I pulled some out Friday.
ATB Ken