Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[21simthy] 11/12/2009 18:36

Yeah yeah, keep deramping it RV, i'm not a seller and wont be at
these levels, i think it's worth more than 10p and if takes a year
or a week then so be it :-))

Crazy to sell but each to their own !

[recto verso] 11/12/2009 17:42

Smithy,

I still hold and have been in here for years.

Hopefully managemet will get it right this time, it seems to be the case.

Your problem is that you believe your endless ramping will encourage buyers, personally I believe all you will do is encourage MMs to slowly bleed you out.

There will be no big buyers until Cellcas announce "sustained profit".

Cellcast have disappointed on too many occasions.

Simple as that.

Remains a high risk investment, as it was 3 years ago.

[bw123] 11/12/2009 16:26

A Few profit takers havent dented the share price near the close, reckon they are filling a buy order. Hopefully filter through to more people next week that this is just waiting to take off.

It's exactly what the MM's having been waiting for since the news, hold it back until they get some stock to make money on.

[sos100] 11/12/2009 12:20

just bought 50k....thus level 2 changed. Have a decent holding now but could have done with some more

will try and add if it goes back to 3p.

looking for a double bagger within the next few months. Keep those updates coming smithy

[21simthy] 11/12/2009 12:18

Bought another 15k with small spare funds.

I think that stake is worth multiples of whole market cap so
these prices to me represent bargain prices, if i can realease
other funds i will keep topping up.

Off line now for the day so good trading.

[bw123] 11/12/2009 12:13

Only going to take a couple more small purchases and this will pop! Just a bit more liquidity needed.

[lyonst5] 11/12/2009 11:38

Backing up the CAH growth in the rns.

[21simthy] 11/12/2009 10:30

"India is still adding over 10 million new mobile phone
subscribers every month which means that the market for Cellcast's applications and services is growing exponentially"

The stake will easily be worth more than the entire market cap,
infact with the growth and profits it could well be worth many
multiples of the market cap.

Just gets better and better if you ask me, feel a little top up
coming.

[21simthy] 11/12/2009 10:16

Lyon.

We know it, but apart from a handful nobody else sees the value, one day
it will just go whoosh, look forward to that day, keep those snippets coming.

[lyonst5] 11/12/2009 10:14

From the 2007 partnership rns. When non profitable

Cellcast will retain 37.5% investment in Cellcast Asia - a holding now valued at US$5.1m

And from 2009 TU rns.

Cellcast Asia Holdings ("CAH"), is experiencing a strong and profitable second half performance in 2009.

[lyonst5] 11/12/2009 09:58

Any thoughts on the current value of Cellcast India ? As this would have to be a opportune time for CAH to buy the remaining share of the business.

[21simthy] 11/12/2009 08:57

Just 10k max at 3.75p online now, 50k NMS still.

Any buying and i think it will rise.

[mariopeter] 11/12/2009 08:57

These guys like their turnover but continue to be averse to profit.

[21simthy] 10/12/2009 22:34

Lyon.

My advice would be to buy just the NMS of 50k, dont pay a premium for size,
chances are the mm's will try and manipulate the price so just buy 50k, even
if they move up they might use any sale to force it back down later on say
next week and then just hit them again when/if it happens.

Here's the highlights from the latest results, now add the trading update
to them and try and figure out why the valuation remains so low, this price
cannot stay this low for long.

Highlights


* revenue for the six months ended 30 June 2009 up 29% on 2008 at GBP8.6 million
* the Group was cash generative with EBITDA of GBP54,000 compared to a negative
GBP550,000 in the same period in 2008 (leaving aside the one-off proceeds of
sale of the Sky channels)
* In the period the Group repaid GBP180,000 of the Headstart loan facility, which
at 30 June 2009 was down to GBP67,000 compared to GBP438,000 a year earlier
* Cellcast Asia Holdings became profitable during the period, with the result that
the Group's share of losses in CAH reduced from GBP179,000 in the six months to
30 June 2008 to GBP15,000 in the current period
* focus on expanded distribution of the Group's television channels remains a core
element of management's strategy to return the Group to profitability
* new channels to be added to the UK Freesat platform

* new applications to be launched for iPhone, Android and other mobile platforms


Then add the update.

?
Cellcast plc
("Cellcast" or the "Group")
Trading update
Cellcast plc, the interactive digital broadcasting company, is pleased to
provide the following trading update on the Group's activities.
India
Cellcast's 37.5% associated company in India, Cellcast Asia Holdings ("CAH"), is
experiencing a strong and profitable second half performance in 2009. The scope
of its interactive format development expertise combined with its billing
network means that CAH is becoming the partner of choice for many Indian
broadcasters (for example it handled all the games and competitions for the IPL
20-20 Cricket, which is the largest sporting TV event in the Indian
subcontinent).
Total mobile penetration in India exceeds 530 million subscribers making it the
second largest market in the world after China (and 8 times the size of the UK
subscriber market). India is still adding over 10 million new mobile phone
subscribers every month which means that the market for Cellcast's applications
and services is growing exponentially as demonstrated by the fourfold increase
in revenues that CAH achieved in the period from January to September 2009.
CAH is now a clear leader in the participation TV sector in India both by
traffic volume and revenue, and the company is well positioned for significant
growth as sector leader in a market that is continuing to grow very rapidly.
UK
At the time of the 2009 interim results announcement in September, we reported
that although the economic downturn continued to present major challenges to the
media and entertainment industry, the Group would continue to invest in
expanding distribution of its services through additional digital platforms, and
that this would remain a core element of management's strategy for returning the
Group to profitability. With this objective in view, Cellcast has continued to
invest substantially in securing new distribution outlets for services on both
Freesat and more specifically on Freeview.
Freeview is now the provider of digital TV on the main set in 10 million UK
homes, with a growing number of viewers taking up the service as the switchover
from analogue gathers pace around the country. Research has shown that a
substantial majority of viewers switching from the old five-channel analogue
set-up were choosing Freeview's digital terrestrial TV service over BSkyB's
satellite and Virgin Media's cable subscription services. More than 18 million
UK homes now use Freeview on at least one of their TV sets.
During the second half of 2009. in line with the strategy described in our
interim announcement, the Group, in association with its partners, has invested
in securing contracts to provide services on 4 new channels on Freeview and one
on Freesat with an additional 2 positions secured for launch. This commitment
involved incurring substantial front-end costs, but our ability to seize this
unique opportunity provides key strategic distribution and the long term
competitive benefits derived from securing key channels to market across all
major digital platforms, namely Sky, Freeview and Freesat. We anticipate the
costs of this investment will be recouped from revenues in the second half of
2010 but will have a negative impact on the Group's second half 2009 performance
to the extent that such costs cannot be capitalised under current IFRS rules. In
the closing months of 2009, revenues from new distribution are already
indicatively tracking above our internal projections and our expectation remains
that the Group will still report year-on-year revenue growth compared to
2008.

Ofcom
In the 2009 interim results announcement, we reported that the Ofcom review of
the participation TV sector continued and was not expected to be concluded until
some time in 2010. Since then, Ofcom has issued a further consultation regarding
changes to the Broadcasting Code rules for promotion of premium rate services.
Although there are still outstanding issues requiring clarification, overall,
the Company and its advisors believe that Ofcom's recently published position is
significantly more positive than originally indicated.

[21simthy] 10/12/2009 21:33

Go and see a doctor and get some help while you can sniknej !

sniknej - 10 Dec'09 - 21:23 - 2275 of 2275 (Filtered)

:-))

[21simthy] 10/12/2009 19:56

Your gamble to sell and buy cheaper is not going to come off RV.

If you have a big holding then you would be very excited at the
current prospects for the shares, not only that but the mm's have
no stock, are you going to feed them some again ?

[recto verso] 10/12/2009 19:46

The market values companies on the future !

Ironic really isn't it ?

[21simthy] 10/12/2009 19:40

The market values companies on the future !

I think you will be surprised, never known somebody who holds so many
be so negative, perhaps you would like to sell me some of your stake
at mid price if you think it's going nowhere ?

[recto verso] 10/12/2009 19:38

21smithy...as you said previouly it may well be six month or more before we see profits, until then we wont see much movement...

but yes, great progress.

(although i remember saying exactly the same thing 3 years ago)

[21simthy] 10/12/2009 19:19

This bit i like a lot.

Total mobile penetration in India exceeds 530 million subscribers making it the
second largest market in the world after China (and 8 times the size of the UK
subscriber market). India is still adding over 10 million new mobile phone
subscribers every month which means that the market for Cellcast's applications
and services is growing exponentially as demonstrated by the fourfold increase
in revenues that CAH achieved in the period from January to September 2009.
CAH is now a clear leader in the participation TV sector in India both by
traffic volume and revenue, and the company is well positioned for significant
growth as sector leader in a market that is continuing to grow very rapidly.

[21simthy] 10/12/2009 19:16

I was waiting for you to post RV.

Thought you would try and talk it down again, face facts, you wont
be able to buy the stock you sold cheaper :-))

[recto verso] 10/12/2009 18:52

Good update, looks like India is performing extremely well. Also looks like the UK is gaining traction.

Although I would guess India, as well as UK, need to spend cash to stay at NO1 in the sector.

Medium to Long term (1-2 years +) looks very promising as Cellcast should post sustainable profit (we hope).

Short term, it looks like the share price is going nowhere as spending is currently higher than earnings....most investors will probably say that this is simply another "another jam tomorrow story"....

There-in lies the problem. Cellcast always seem to spend more than they earn.

SHOULD be a cracking earner in 1 to 2 years time.

I rest long (hopefully not too long).

[21simthy] 10/12/2009 17:52

Lyon.

Absolutely spot on there, when market makers have a short book they
do all they can to stop it rising, i've been warning about this on
the DCD thread when they forced it down to 6.5p bid, i knew then it
was just a total false price and position by the mm's and now it's
8.25p bid and higher online, i feel the same will happen here, the
mm's are holding out hoping for a seller to show, quite why anybody
would sell after this news is beyond me, i might have another nibble
but i've been nibbling for a month now, do i really want to be top heavy,
well actually i feel i could go a high % in this stock alone instead
of the usual even spread around the portfolio, there's others i like
but now this for me is top dog.

[lyonst5] 10/12/2009 17:45

I don't think they won't let it run if they have'nt got the shares to sell, and i guess they were short of stock from before the TU.
I'm kind of interested to call my broker and get him onto the MM's for a price for a sizeable amount.