Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[bloomberg2] 12/5/2020 07:51

Morning campers

[xclusive2] 11/5/2020 15:19

Who is Dinerios. I see the Twitter comment but the account is rarely used and it's a one off comment, probably FK .

The market is weaker @ 3.86p bid, 250k max.

[jostrummer] 11/5/2020 14:04

Dinerios
@Dinerios1
·
10m
Could be wrong but looks like a nice Bat in play over at #CASP ... 10.8p target for me. Fingers crossed Cowboy hat face

[xclusive2] 11/5/2020 12:46

Max,

It's what the larger players have probably been doing for a while, in concert, using Twitter etc to hot with volume and gain traction. A couple of issues for me, firstly i have too many probably, secondly, don't wish to be rude but i don't trust anyone unless i've met them and got their measure.

Our share price will go north regardless but the range trading will persist on that journey UNLESS the news is such that it kicks us on beyond 20p, for that it needs to be deep success(es).

I've often thought i'd foil selling plans by buying another chunk but i'd only do that if i was underweight, unfortunately i'm not and i'm spreading risk as i move forward. I'll trade some of the recent buys and will sell more post 10p and spread risk as the share price increases.

Bid improved to 3.948 but only 300k max ve 4.14p buy @ 200k, very boring. Next tick will be up probably 4-4.25p but we need a buying spree and a disinterested seller(s) to see it have another go at 6p. Should be getting some production numbers, hopefully with the revenue achieved this time.

[maxim1999] 11/5/2020 12:30

Josh , Roy , Norm , Hallow , David, x2, Josh , credock , dhb , Konil, chopsy , hotdeal , me , anyone of the assembled troops here needs to put in the odd buy to trigger a squeeze. Oil is only going one way unless we get a second more dangerous wave . In which case we should not see sub 3 p again. I have dealt 5 or 6 times now in the last month. Which cunning foxes with pumpkin sized gonads will claim the honour and pleasure of lighting the afterburners on the share price .........

[xclusive2] 11/5/2020 12:20

Yep, we won't move forward while he/she/they persist, in the absence of considerable buy volume obviously.

[the new norm] 11/5/2020 12:16

quiet day, but our programmed seller still unloading.....

[hallow] 11/5/2020 11:59

Come on Clive get on with it, I'e had more fun watching paint dry.

[jostrummer] 11/5/2020 09:25

ok norman.

[the new norm] 11/5/2020 08:22

At the last count at least £40m has been poured into developing the existing 4 deeps.

Get just one deep to flow at 1500 bpd @ $50 and you have total capex payback on the 4 deeps within 18 months.

Hell will freeze over before CASP stops trying to get a deep to flow commercially.

[xclusive2] 11/5/2020 08:21

If the seller moves on this will gap up and I'm expecting that this week and through 5p, especially if Crude stays around current level.

[credock] 11/5/2020 07:49

JAYRH-- The deeps will flow with this new acid and it wont be long.

[maxim1999] 10/5/2020 22:17

I must admit my predictions have been at odds with what has actually happened.I am pleased you had 13 p. I had 11p. So at least I am in the same ball park.Thanks for your posts. I appreciate them. Thanks .

[jayrh] 10/5/2020 20:56

I think they might as well plug and abandon the deeps they're having that much trouble with them...

[dhb368] 10/5/2020 19:15

Not too much of a stretch all things being equal but I valued casp @ 13p pre new successes on MJF and the share price went to 2.5p!If we can shake off the discount applied for the management ( the last 2 RNSs are a step in the right direction) and the continued failure on the deeps, then who knows, but I am not expecting 30p anytime soon.

[maxim1999] 10/5/2020 17:15

Thanks. So really not too much of a stretch . Rally in the oil price and continued progress in the Shallows. I recon we get $50 quite quickly. Public transport is going to be shunned . The tube is effectively a cylindrical Petri dish. So those peoplewho have to travel long distances to work will starting using cars again. Couple this with a recovery in manufacturing etc a reduction is production and you can see a price squeeze quite quickly.

[hallow] 09/5/2020 17:52

This coming week please Clive if you could announce what you have been sitting on for such a very long time.

From a long suffering shareholder.

[dhb368] 09/5/2020 16:59

Chopsy. The deeps are what attract the gambler in us and that is what small cap oil investment is. MJF will take us from 10p (recent average high) to 15-30p. Great but not spectacular. Imagine not the income of 4500 bopd from 3 deeps but an upgrade to say 500m+ barrels recoverable (£1+) . That is the dream for every small cap oil 'investor'

[xclusive2] 09/5/2020 15:00

That's it Chopsy. Our Clive announced the 58sq KM statement for the BNG oil. Dependant on recoverability will determine our P nos so I'm looking forward to the first success and the next CPR on both shallow and deeps. We need success in the exploratory phase as only 5 years to exploit and transition to full production, currently 29 years.

[chopsy] 09/5/2020 13:52

Why is there so much emphasis on the deeps when one deep = just three shallows in terms of bopd? Is it that the deeper reservoirs are so much bigger and high pressured that they will flow for much longer (?forever)?

[dhb368] 09/5/2020 13:05

Norm. Realistically CASP would need a reserves upgrade to confirm long term viability of MJF to justify that value but a major reserves upgrade should not be an issue if we are able to keep drilling 500bopd wells. I don't expect a dividend as I think KO will use any retained profit to add resources and shareholder value.

[the new norm] 09/5/2020 11:50

Sounds good DHB

Assuming the not too distant new norm world is $50 pob do you think CASP will pay a dividend from the ever increasing in size MJF free cashflow? If so how much per share?

[dhb368] 09/5/2020 10:58

Maxim, for 30p on a npv10 basis only (nothing in for reserve upgrades etc.) requires free cash flow of $56m which would be 6200bopd at $25 FCF /bbl. No allowance made for annual production decline.

This shouldn't be hard to achieve @ $50 oil and only requires continued success at MJF (which seems highly likely following recent successes) and a return to oil sales above $50 which is inevitable.

Of course we have no idea of CASPs cost of production/bbl but it must be below $20 and we know taxes are not significant below $50.

Optimistically we can produce 6-8000bopd from MJF, at $55-60 oil say $30net generating around $87m/pa. Reserves upgrades may lift the valuation further, but there is always a risk that management actions may sink it again...
There is also potential deep upside and we have a boat..

[credock] 07/5/2020 19:12

DHB , 30p would get me £213,000. Think I would take that ha ha . You never know.