Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[georgesorearse] 10/3/2020 01:00

That doesn't sound like something this wonderful collection of posters would do does it >>> ?

[capablanca64] 09/3/2020 23:25

Got admonished by dhb on the other Casp board but not a bother

[capablanca64] 09/3/2020 22:44

Cannacord Wealth Management. Btw no need to apologise for yesterday

[georgesorearse] 09/3/2020 22:41

Don't know whereabouts mate ....

I did a week in Austria then a week in France - was due back at the end of the month for the last trip to Swiss / France region but thats been cancelled ....

Hell in a handcart bargain hunting time unless the 2020's replicate the 1920's of course in which case it doesn't really matter .....

[capablanca64] 09/3/2020 22:22

Hi GSA not been posting much lately as was in China over the new year before embarking on a two-week cruise in South Korea and a recent skiing trip in northern Italy but I'm glad to be finally back in the UK. Hope all is well ? Where's Wally aka FK ?

[capablanca64] 09/3/2020 18:53

This weekend's breakdown in negotiations between OPEC (the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and Russia sent oil prices down 25% and has exacerbated the selling in equities. We have been watching the extreme market volatility with some concern and would like to offer our views.Coronavirus developmentsThe COVID-19 virus has been dealt with differently in various parts of the world. Asia has probably been the most efficient, throwing massive amounts of testing at the problem and then isolating infected people. As a result, the death rates have been amongst the lowest in the world. South Korea has a death rate way below 1% of cases thanks to its testing blitz, disinfectant drive and excellent healthcare system. Singapore has yet to see a single death despite 160 cases. Some of the activities undertaken in Asia may not be applicable in the West, such as the lockdown of a whole province in China and the total ban on people's movements. Yet in China, the number of new cases is now falling and many regions are now back to normal with no new cases at all.At the other extreme, we see the US, where the Trump administration's policy is more hands-off than in Asia, with limited testing for a variety of reasons (test kits not ready, patients have to pay, no government drive to encourage testing). It seems as though President Trump is making the bet that the economic fallout from the virus is worse if you try to contain it. As he is facing an election in November, the state of the US economy between now and then is of crucial importance to his re-election chances.Europe (and the UK, to an extent) seems to have gone for a medley of steps (closing schools, banning large public meetings, panic buying and stockpiling). The jury is still out as to whether these measures will work, but right now the markets are punishing these countries the most, meaning they don't trust the combination of policies to tackle the virus.How markets are reactingThis leaves us with a conundrum. Europe (and possibly the UK) is likely to go into a recession this year. Japan was already there before COVID-19 hit, so the virus can only make matters worse. China is emerging from its very deep slump; nobody knows exactly how badly its economy was hit. The numbers may well shock, but it's clear that the Chinese authorities have the means to stimulate their country after activity returns back to normal. They, quite rightly, understand that throwing monetary or fiscal stimulus at a country that is in lockdown or quarantine will be money down the drain. They are therefore waiting for the resumption of business as usual before adding a potentially very large stimulus package to their economy.The big question is how the US will fare. A lot will depend on how under-reported the cases are, given its poor testing record. If the panic seen in Europe is avoided in the US and the cases do not soar, President Trump may look like a hero for not casting the economy into a recession. The opposite scenario is quite scary: cases skyrocketing and the administration trying to shift blame onto others (possibly China, the Centre for Disease Control or even former President Obama). We can only imagine how markets would react to such a scenario.We are not in a position to know which way the virus will go but can see that markets have already started incorporating a certain probability of the most extreme scenarios. It's a question of how far markets will go.What does the crude oil price fall mean?The massive fall in crude prices is both negative and positive for the global economy. It damages capital spending by oil companies and can impact suppliers to their sector. It has beneficial effects for consumers and industrial energy users, nowhere more so than the US consumer, whose gasoline prices are directly related to crude costs. This is unlike European and UK consumers who pay large taxes and hence see less variable petrol prices. Nonetheless, the collapse in oil prices is feeding the equity bear market rhetoric.Government vs corporate reactionsWe are also quite concerned that, even if governments do not decide to shut down countries or regions, businesses may actually end up doing so themselves. When a company prevents travelling and large meetings, it does what is right for its employees, but if you multiply that action by thousands of firms, you get a total standstill in the economy. This is what we are starting to see in Europe, and the risk is that it may happen in the US, which is the driver of risk appetite in the world. If the US goes into a recession, markets have further to fall. If the US avoids recession, markets could rally quite sharply.How we are respondingIt is too early to say which way we could go and our views on markets will evolve based on the facts as well as the market reaction. It is clear to us, though, that trading in an environment of markets rising or falling 5% a day is unlikely to prove profitable and that calmer circumstances have to prevail to enable market participants to decide which positions to take. The lower markets go, the more likely there is value in taking a contrarian view and looking for risk assets as prices discount future scenarios. On the other hand, a sharp relief rally would lead us to think of rebalancing existing risk positions in our clients' discretionary portfolios.As we write this, trading on the US stock market has been halted to limit falls. This indicates a panic state that is unlikely to last very long.The investments we like for our discretionary client portfolios have not changed since the onset of the virus. The 'barbell' of US and emerging market equities provides valuable sources of growth. We have, however, expressed misgivings about the European economy - and the reliance of European equities on cyclical export sectors - and we are glad that our positions there have been minimal.In a nutshell, markets may rebound soon from their oversold condition, but we are not confident any rally will be durable until the full extent of the virus is visible outside of Asia, in particular in the US. We are highly encouraged by the situation in China, where 28 out of 31 provinces are now close to being back to normal, and that there is light at the end of the tunnel. We may not be quite there yet.

[maxim1999] 09/3/2020 17:14

I totally agree that delaying good news serves no purpose . Without improving fundamentals and clarity on the revenue model this will be a stock that holders rotate out of if they want to increase cash levels.CC saying he is no hurry to develop A5 looks like an excuse for not being able to resolve the technical challenges.

[konil] 09/3/2020 17:05

i disagree with those calling for delayed news especially of the 'good' variety.

ok, releasing good news in this market will not give the share price the same boost as when market is neutral or bullish. or maybe no boost at all.

but it will prove the fundamentals of the company, and their ability to deliver, rather than the never ending limbo we have been in for the last many years. the share price will take care of itself when the market returns to 'normality'.

as it stands i am having serious doubts about their ability to deliver any of the deeps, just keep getting strung along with bs being spouted all the while. and the mjf shallows, with owned drill rigs, sites prepped ahead of winter, etc. etc. etc. and so what, they still cannot deliver even on the shallows without inordinate on-going delays.

meanwhile insiders/mates assets transfers in and associated drip fed dilution, one by one, who knows what will come next...ko's kitchen? cos they want to use the pipes for infrastructure and the sink for storage?


if there is any good news then let's have it now! and hope its on the deeps.

[dhb368] 09/3/2020 16:42

When CC said at the EGM that they were 'not in a hurry' with A5 I thought that it was a ridiculous comment to make.
However now we don't need any news until April at the earliest so 'take your time' Clive.

Today was not as bad as I first thought!
My best performing stock LGEN down only 6.8%
The rest so far past red that I can only see them with a specially adapted infrared camera.

[xclusive2] 09/3/2020 14:57

DHB,The markets are pricing in Armageddon. We know what CV could do and the market is pricing it in. Bought for the long term as I'm not a trader and 40% hit in weeks is extreme. No leverage for me and will pick up BARC at some point and any company that will bounce. Will they go lower ? probably but it's like any sale shopping, it's all about timing and quality ie it will last for a long time. Not buying Caspian until I see 150 update as I can't see A5 being commercial yet. Sp may bounce a little but will be sold into, then I'll add some if the scenario happens.

[sparusty] 09/3/2020 14:55

I was going to say ...Exciting times.

Maybe not.

[davidblack] 09/3/2020 14:53

Hopefully Clive will keep his head down. The last thing we need is average news and good news is worse as it just encourages sellers.

Time to hide for a month or so Clive?

[rutter] 09/3/2020 14:29

Haven't seen anything like this since the dot com crash Sorry for those with leveraged positions Can't see when relief is coming No news just yet please Clive GLA

[sparusty] 09/3/2020 13:49

I have 2 blue on my screen. EUA (suspended) and ITM
Not sure that the oil price is going to be this low for too long.
Only Oil I am in is CASP and UJO both funded so a case of waiting it out, UJO just acquired another 30% of Keddington this morning to go to 55%.
Looks good for the long run...but not especially today.

[dhb368] 09/3/2020 13:24

Very brave smarty. I think sentiment on tourist related stocks may take a while to turn.
Oilers though. Neither the Saudi's want nor the Russians can afford $35 oil so I don't think that is here to stay.
Any oiler not looking for funding/farmout will rocket from these levels once that becomes clear. I expect anyone needing funding will languish for a while after this shock.
On the plus side, shale is now finished. Most will go bust and nobody will be financing an new fracs.

[xclusive2] 09/3/2020 12:44

Everything on my screeb is red apart from one stock, SXX in suspension !!

Took some EZJ this morning and some CRST, also looking closely at our BARC, currently 118p ! but have decided to leave a little longer. Also looking at the slaughtered oil stocks, kid in candy shop stuff.

[capablanca64] 09/3/2020 08:14

Are we nearly there yet ? Lol ?

[xclusive2] 09/3/2020 08:02

Oil going back to 5 year lows,indices as will most stocks, crazy times. Time to get the cheque book out and pick up some oversold stocks today. They may go lower still but the price you'll be buying at will be a bargain providing the fundamentals are strong. Not buying Casper but will be picking the most ravaged FTSE casualties.

[1enigmatic] 08/3/2020 23:25

Capa you keep safe Milton Keynes hit.....Don't share your flask or soggy sarnies