Very silly indeed X2
I'm pondering the value of a business producing 2000bopd, hire fees of $10m and oil trading profits of $4m
My number crunching keeps throwing up a share price north of 10p for an equity base similar to CASP
Amazing how the shallows sale and the licence renewal delays have destroyed the share price in the short term
Huge re rate if sale proceeds finally are received and a few of the licences get signed off and perhaps confirmation of another hire for CE to boot! |
Getting very silly now but I've had too many historic bottom fishing episodes. Needs confirmation of shallows sale to give it a kick and plenty of other news to follow. Hugely oversold imo but current investor base obviously don't agree . |
KZT makes new historic low against USD
532 v 430 May 24
Hope Clive is holding the $14m in USD and didn't convert to KZT! |
smarty, yes, lots of angles on casp but for now its special divis i'm interested in.
i'm hoping that is what ko and cp want, because then it will happen, and they may also strategise asset sales further into 2025/2026. we could end up with £100m distributed as specials over next 2 years - that is 4p/share.
with the share price at 3p that sounds ridiculous...much will depend on management's desire and external appetite for casp's assets. |
 They've stated NO to returning to a dividend structure BUT special Divis are likely, especially if they sell assets. Currently the m/cap is c £68m and the question 'what are our assets worth ?'Hopefully all investors have read the latest Zeus broker report. 10.9p fair current value and 73.6p with upside. No value attributed to B8 or West Shalva yet we are priced in the doldrums at 3p. The current FV estimate is a 260% hike from current share price but nobody is buying it. They have found oil at all deep structures but are yet to flow them commercially. 803 at NY is the latest to flow at 500bopd with further testing due on receipt of licence approval and if commercial, will immediately improve the NAV. It would be a massive boost for investor confidence as suddenly the monkey has lost its foothold. A5 side-track, B8 testing next and there would be considerable hype/expectation that other drilled structures are going to prove commercial.The company have completed reserves estimates for Airshagyl but not for NY structure but have applied for production licences. The reserves estimate was a requirement for NY block but it hasn't be published ? The production licences will incur a cost so are they playing a game with the Kaz authorities hence the stalling of testing at 803 ? They have the extended appraisal licence agreed for up to 12 months so why not crack on ? They have been clever with their approach to licence applications as it enables them to sell them individually if required. They've stated that structures with production licences are like RH droppings so there should be considerable value when sold, that value will be dictated following the testing on NY block and remedial work on Airshagyl but I believe that both assets will be sold in the not to distant future. B8 Akkaduk structure to be tested as soon as licence approved and if successful, they'll keep that asset and hopefully WS structure proves to be successful this quarter. If they generate cash chunks from asset sales, they'll pay special Divis as they've already set up the tax structures to benefit from large windfall payments.As stated, how can the company be valued at 3p when they have so many assets that if sold separately will generate multiples of current share price The PIs dictate the price and currently, many are jaded and fed up with the current situation but it will take very little to break this out with gusto. Good news will strengthen the NAV and bring in new investors looking for the next good thing and it could be Caspian.I remain hopeful of achieving that multi-bagging return, hopefully 2025 is finally the year we start to see the successes we've waited a long time for.Wishing for a happy, healthy and prosperous NY for all Caspers :) |
HNY K!
Totally agree with your'cash extraction' mode comment
Family have all their shareholdings in tax free jurisdictions
They want to cash out asap and 2025 will hopefully be the year they achieve that goal
Sale of the Shallows, licence renewals/subsequent sale and sale of CE will raise £250m minimum
Family probably want >20p a share but if they can get 10p this year they will take it and so would the long suffering LTH pis
H1 25 will be interesting ;-) |
happy new year chaps.
interesting comments here while we wait for news.
nothing to add except a personal perspective... i've given up on expecting any fireworks from the o&e business, they just cant hack it.
the mining etc. fills me with dread cos they will probably waste oodles of cash and it wont go anywhere. admittedly that's a prejudicial view.
i hope ko clan and the cp are as fed up with this non performance as the rest of us and have therefore firmly moved into cash extraction mode, the structure for which has already been set up.
so for 2025 i'd like to see ar deal concluded and a chunk returned as divi. 1p very doable, 2p would be good but probably too much to hope for. then line up some other asset for sale and another divi 1p or 2p.
meantime i hope they dont go belly up after shallows sale and no (very little) prod revenue. i'm not optimistic on their ability to replace the shallows revenue, if they do it would be a nice surprise.
by 2026 hopefully a 3rd asset lined up for sale. any deep success meantime would be unexpected bonus.
divis of 1p/2p should put some fire into the share price sitting at 3p currently.
just dreaming guys... |
Comms are poor, we know that but the multi-bagging opportunity is there. As you say, they could position 25 with a very positive slant considering what's in the pit. They're in the strongest financial position for years and if AR deal completes, they're in a great position to accelerate the value creation from the asset base. |
That's my point precisely X2, periods of radio silence will always contribute to investor anxiety and negative vibes
Bearing in mind we are waiting for various licence renewals as well as the conclusion of a major asset disposal a share suspension was the way to go
A relaunch with all the ducks in line and concluded would have had the share price popping 2 or 3 bags
Any hoo we are where we are and will just flounder in the sea of negativity until the tangible news begins to flow ;-) |
To add. I'm not the technical one and I'm sure Spangle would probably disagree re production depletion.Fingers x'd that were about to get positive updates on the AR deal, licence approvals and WS spud date. |
ADVFN playing up again when posting !Production volume has always declined as depletion plays it part and work overs required to sustain production. They've always added new wells to build volume but they've always suffered a % of depletion and that's more prevalent with horizontals. I don't know it's a fact but it's likely imo. If deal was dead, AR would've pulled out by now but why is it it dragging ? Is it a renegotiation or raising funds ? Regardless, as stated it's not the end of the world for Casper, they'd crack on doing what they've been doing for years until licence expiry. |
Re production levels |
CASP confirmed on 24 Sep 24 that production from BNG Shallows was 1600 bopd, excluding well 815, prior to SPA being signed with AR
26 Sep 24 shareholder approval given to disposal of Shallows
21 Nov 24 well 815 to be tested once acid treatment completed
Silence on current oil production for over 3 months, presumably because NDA signed by CASP
If Clive is precluded from giving operational updates then why were the shares not suspended on 26 Sep 24?
Perfect breeding ground for fear, uncertainty and doubt, who benefits from that environment, you may well ask?
X2 just curious but why do you think current production is <1600 bopd and not at the level confirmed by Clive on 24 Sep 24?
Buying opportunity for the brave ;-) |
No probs Jimmy. I just wish that we'd have seen a sensible ROI from this investment given the time invested. Not saying that many haven't made money as those who have traded it could've made a very tidy sum.NN,Last time I spoke to CC, I did ask the question re 815 and he stated it had no bearing on deal, it was a bonus to AR. If it was flowing then I'd assume it would add to Caspian income. With regards to current production, believe it's less than 1600 from MJF/SY but that's speculation. Need to get this deal concluded one way or the other as it's stalling ongoing work on the structure. |
X2
Do you think they will have completed well 815 acid treatment by now?
Accept its part of the Shallows sale but another 400 bopd in addition to the last reported 1600 bopd makes a significant difference to monthly surplus cash flow, when you add in the oil trading operation too
The Shallows sale NDA is keeping us in the dark ;-) |
Exclusive you've certainly done a lot of time consuming research and you know your stuff been reading your posts a long time and your information is very helpful and very very useful thanks a lot and a happy new year to you |
It will be good to see how they've traded over H2. The last financials as detailed below were for H1. Generating $16.4m from oil production and sales trading.An interesting point, if the AR deal would've completed earlier, we'd have not received the continued monthly production revenues. There's nothing to replace it as yet apart from the 100 bopd existing production from B8. In theory, you could add the additional production to the total deal value and if you factor in the currency fluctuation, then the deal value exceeds $100m. Also, the Casper costs have decreased substantially as operational activity has ceased until we get the licence approvals. Also have the CE cash to add to the pile so from a financial perspective, we'll be in a very strong position. If the deal does conclude in Q1 then it should coincide with licence approvals, WS spud and details of the mining acquisition. Shouldn't be boring !!!Total revenue $18.5 million (2023 $17.3 million)· Revenue from oil production $10.5 million (2023: $12.5 million)· Revenue from sales trading $5.9 million (2023: $3.8 million)· Revenue from on shore drilling $nil (2023: $1.0 million)· Revenue from offshore drilling $2 million (2023: $ nil)· Gross Profit $8.0 million (2023: $12.4 million)· Operating profit $3.2 million (2023: $8.1 million)· Profit before tax $2.9 million (2023: $7.9 million)· Net current liabilities $18.1 million (2023: $24.6 million)· Cash $0.7 million (2023: $0.5 million)· Total assets $140.6 million (2023: $130.7 million) |
Update is bare minimum but complies with their material issue reporting obligations with regard to long stop date extension
Ill assume we get another two months of Shallows production income while they work up WS and B8 assets to replace disposed income stream and as X2 says we should be receiving income from $14m bank deposit
Still slowly moving in right direction
Back to sleep ;-) |
Not as I understand it. The $2m is thr exclusivity cas they retain. Probably earning interest at c$200k pm on total sum paid to date plus the continued prod revenue. They're not working on MJF apart from work overs so volume will probably be declining slightly. Need to get the deal concluded. |
Is the $14 million non refundable ? |
I think we all could have guessed the contents. Would be good to get news of a positive nature in the meantime . |
Not unexpected. If it was dead we'd know about it but it would be good to understand the reason. |
Well expected more information than just the delay. Cannot remember a RNS being posted without a comment on LSE within the first half hour. Hopeless communication and hardly the positive start to 2025 I was looking forward to. |
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