Civitas Social Housing Share Discussion Threads

[dicko80] 15/2/2012 08:59

lol then the drop the bid price.... I bet the buy price ticks up though !!

[moreforus] 15/2/2012 08:58

lol 1.75 mill buys and they drop the price....

mind you if you can buy close to the what was bid....

took more at 0.426p

[koorb] 15/2/2012 08:58

Dipped a toe in this morning...

[dicko80] 15/2/2012 08:58

buys coming in

[dicko80] 15/2/2012 07:57

morning boys n gals,

nice to see some new faces ;-)

[moreforus] 15/2/2012 07:13

Nutjob are you going to create your special magic here and give us another 4 bagger in a few weeks?

[n3tleylucas] 15/2/2012 05:32

Hi guys & gals ... great thread ... good research ...

I was looking at Malaga, for a comparison ... MLG on TSX ... I know it's a Peru mine ... but gives an idea of profits/costs ... because the above posts are great ... but more meat needed ... here's some ... you supply the gravy :)

Q3 2011 ... sales $4.6m, net income $2m ... av sale $454 ... prod cost $178
It's MV is around £14m ... 184m x 12c (7.6p)

So, if say an annualised £5m (£/$1.58) of net income is being valued by the market at £14m ... that's 35% of MV in net income ... go ahead guys ... do some sums :)

Let's try to get an idea of not just what the resource may be valued at ... but how much production? ... how much real dosh can La Parrilla generate ... so we can value it on actual profits ... and chuck future equity/debt factors into the mix ... fun eh? LOL ... see what we can come up with :)

[chiefo] 14/2/2012 23:23

Looks an interesting company, will take a look.

[jojo_jo] 14/2/2012 22:54

Looking just at the tailings project, that alone should generate at least $15m profit p.a.
So working on a p/e of just 3, the tailings project ALONE should be worth $45m, excluding any allowance for reserves in place.

The mine proper is worth far more.

IMPO/DYOR.
Jo.

[jojo_jo] 14/2/2012 22:39

Hi, just for reference I've moved some of my early January posts relating to valuation, tailings project etc.
Here they are. A bit of a read, but they needed moving from the old thread.
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JoJo_Jo - 12 Jan'12 - 16:16 - 28293 of 28379 edit

I've tried to assess the value of the tungsten in place. I'm not really sure, but have used low values per pound of WO3 (tungsten trioxide). The lowest price I can find is $20/lb for near pure, although I've seen higher quoted.
Accordingly 36m tonnes of 0.09% of ore equates to a reserves value (for the mine reserves only, excluding the tailings) around $1.45bn. A very large figure relative to mkt.cap!
I don't know how much it will cost to extract/purify etc. but they say "relatively low cost".
A few tungsten tailings ventures have sprung up in the wake of the spike in the price of Tungsten, and all express viability at 'a range of raw tungsten prices' so this looks like a goer. I guess they will try and make this tailings side pay before going full-on into the mine proper, although they are test drilling the mine margins now and, presumably, if they find higher grade (0.7%+) ore they will probably start in the mine itself. The tailings plant may also be suitable for processing/refining the mine tungsten further down the line.
I guess they'll do it simultaneously; drill the long test-bores whilst planning/pricing/sourcing the tailings re-treatment plant and equipment. Second-hand gear may be available.

Not sure if I'm right so DYOR.
Very promising indeed though.

All IMPO.
Jo.

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JoJo_Jo - 12 Jan'12 - 20:48 - 28296 of 28379 edit

Most of the equipment for the Aussie Mt.Carbine tailings re-processing plant cost them $650k, but I understand it is mostly pre-used and is to be re-conditioned. I guess the Spanish plant could be sourced for a similar price, used, or somewhat more, newly commissioned.

Caspian's tailings project (and subsequent mine project) is quite similar in size and quality to the Icon's Mt.Carbine project in Australia...

Icon plans to be a pre-eminent Australian tungsten producer, with production at the historic Mt Carbine tungsten mine in North Queensland set to re-commence this year (2011). The grade of the product will depend on customer preference, but it is anticipated production from the tailings will be 50 tonnes of WO3 per month (5,000 metric tonne units or mtu's per month). Mt Carbine was discovered at the end of the 19th Century, and was a major tungsten producer in the past. The deposit is still relatively unexplored and there is considerable exploration potential for new tungsten mineralisation in the Mining Leases and Icon's surrounding exploration tenements. When it last operated between 1973 and 1987, the Mt Carbine mine produced exceptionally high grade concentrate, and was in the lowest quartile of cost of production for global tungsten producers.

Resource:
The Mt Carbine tungsten mineralisation is similar to several other large tungsten deposits around the world, for example some of the deposits in southern China, Spain and southern UK, in that it is low grade (the grade of the inferred hard-rock resource at Mt Carbine is 0.14%WO3 at a cut-off of 0.05% WO3, and comparable with other large tungsten deposits of a similar geological style).
The hard rock mineralisation is open at depth and to the north of the present resource; historic workings persist for several hundred metres north of the northern-most exploration drill hole. Although it is low grade, the Mt Carbine mineralisation is very amenable to ore sorting, a pre-concentration process which retrieves a small tonneage of high grade mill feed from a large tonneage of low grade ore, at low cost and with minimal loss of valuable mineral.

Geology/Geophysics:
Mt Carbine was discovered at the end of the 19th Century, and was a major tungsten producer in the past. The deposit is still relatively unexplored and there is considerable exploration potential for new tungsten mineralisation in the Mining Leases and Icon's surrounding exploration tenements. The present Mining Leases contain tailings dams (~ 2million tonnes at 0.1% WO3), a low grade mineralisation stockpile (historical records indicate ~12 million tonnes, which from Icon's recent bulk sampling has a grade of 0.075% WO3), and ~ 6 million tonnes of mineralised ore sorting rejects.
Icon completed its first drilling program and resampling of historic drill core Mt Carbine in 2010, resulting in the announcement of a maiden JORC compliant inferred resource estimate of 39 million tonnes of hard-rock mineralisation at a grade of 0.14% WO3 at a cut-off of 0.05% WO3, adjacent to the existing open pit.

Forward Program:
Ore sorting was successfully used at Mt Carbine between 1973 and 1986, however there have been major advances in the type and efficiency of ore sorters since they were last used at Mt Carbine. During late 2010, Icon carried out trials using a state-of-the-art transmission X-Ray ore sorter on bulk samples taken from the ~12 million tonne low grade stockpile left untreated by the previous mining operation. The results were highly encouraging, with the sorting achieving a conservative upgrade of more than 8 times the bulk sample grade.
The results are regarded as a "game changer" for the redevelopment of Mt Carbine. Following on from the tailings re-treatment, Icon is now planning to re-treat the low grade stockpile over a period of 4-6 years at a production rate of ~100 tonnes WO3 per month, before it commences hard rock mining.

The dramatic reduction of the amount of rock to be milled for final product results in major reductions in capital expenditure (the mill is much smaller) and operating costs per unit of product. The net result is that the Mt Carbine project now has a long project life and a much reduced project risk.

---------------------

Quite a read I'm afraid, but worth it IMPO.

For the record Carbine Tungsten Ltd, Australia (formerly Icon) has a market capitalisation of around £15m, with a similar/smaller reserves total. It also progressed to near production quickly, within about 6 months according to my research. Please DYOR of course.
Jo.

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JoJo_Jo - 12 Jan'12 - 21:08 - 28297 of 28379 edit

How tungsten prices are quoted...

A Metric Tonne Unit ("MTU") is equal to ten kilograms per metric tonne and is the standard weight measure of tungsten. Tungsten prices are generally quoted as US dollars per MTU of tungsten trioxide (WO3). Theoretically pure wolframite concentrate can contain 79.3% tungsten metal, but in practice the grade of concentrate products acceptable for sale ranges from about 62% WO3 to about 72% WO3. Saleability of concentrate depends on grade and also the impurities in the concentrate. Tungsten prices are also quoted as US$ per MTU of WO3 in Ammonium Paratungstate ("APT"), which is a downstream secondary product made from wolframite or scheelite concentrates.

Currently the price is around US$440.00 per MTU.
Using the MTU price I get roughly the same total mine resource value as I got earlier, using $20/lb, of $1.42bn, again excluding the tailings. I think both calculations are about right, but I'm not certain. Please correct me if I'm wrong (and DYOR).

IMPO/DYOR.
Jo.

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JoJo_Jo - 13 Jan'12 - 09:14 - 28299 of 28379 edit

Carbine Tungsten Ltd 'anticipated production from the tailings will be 50 tonnes of WO3 per month (5,000 metric tonne units or MTUs per month)'. I guess Caspian's should be about the same in respect of the tailings. This equates to $2.2m/month of 'high margin' revenue per month from the tailings alone.
DYOR.
IMPO.
Jo.

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All for the record, on this new thread.
All recent (Jan.2012) and still very valid.
Jo.

[bobbyshilling] 14/2/2012 18:28

Welcome bozzawozza.

[bozzawozza] 14/2/2012 17:53

Thanks, and if I actually manage to make anything on my other stocks I will be putting the profit into here to build a bit of a stake before all the news starts arriving.

[dicko80] 14/2/2012 15:56

welcome aboard bozza :-)

Hopefully a positive update is forthcoming

[bozzawozza] 14/2/2012 15:49

that 500k shares is not a sell its a buy as I have just bought them and made my first purchase of this stock.

[tomboyb] 13/2/2012 21:09

Indeed under the radar - online quotes at the end of the day were buy 500k MAX - BOD have loaded up - now its simply awaiting the drilling results -

[dicko80] 13/2/2012 20:49

v much under the radar at the min bobby...

hope the results from the first drill hole change that

[bobbyshilling] 13/2/2012 17:21

I have just read that the grading of the 36m tons is thought to be 0.09%. Lower than my estimate above, but then could be upgraded after drilling results. WLFE have the worlds 4th largest tungsten mine at just 0.2% of 27m tons (JORC).

So my figures above need to be approximately halved for value estimate. (At the moment), but still good cashflow even at half, when you look at current market cap.

bs.

[bobbyshilling] 13/2/2012 15:48

Valuation - (rough guide)

The current price of tungsten is around $40000 per metric ton. We have to consider the percentage of tungsten (WO3) present in the licence area of currently estimated 36m tons, one drill has intercepted a 0.7% we know, but realistically average grades are usually a lot less, so let us (for now) use 0.2% as in Devon. We can expect around 65% purity in the ore, again using Devon numbers.

So, 36mtons x 0.2% x 65% x $40000 = close on $2billion.

Estimate say a 15 year life of mine and you have a cashflow of around $130m per annum at current prices. Not bad for a £4m market cap company!

It must be stressed that these are only rough numbers, from what I have read, but one has to start from somewhere, as I cannot find any more info from the company so far. I expect higher grades and and extention of the licence area after drilling, ie more than 36m tons.

Please feel free to check figures/estimates.

regards, bs.

Edit, at this point the resource is only inferred and has no JORC catergorisation as yet, but this should all come later so we will know exactly what we are dealing with here in terms of size and value.

[dicko80] 13/2/2012 10:29

Just need a juicy update to move things along

[tomboyb] 13/2/2012 10:24

Well - at these levels online 500k MAX - however as with any placing there is a tendency of an overhang - difference here is BOD hold most of the equity -

[dicko80] 13/2/2012 10:18

we cant help the fact that some PI's need to sell to buy cat food :P

[tomboyb] 13/2/2012 10:11

Morning - the fall has encouraged a bit of buying here - a little interest building on the mineral drilling here -

[dicko80] 13/2/2012 10:10

nice buy delayed from 9.05

10:05:39 0.438p 2,269,713 £9,941 0.43p 0.44p BUY OK

[dicko80] 13/2/2012 08:56

Traders selling up...

looks like TDW with those prices..

nice 1m buy come in straight away