Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[w1ndjammer] 02/2/2017 09:37

warranty thanks for your reply


meantime it looks like the scum are piling the shorts on again.

i guess its easy pickings because CLLN are never going to produce a RNS that
could double an share price in 8.5 hrs like an O&G could for example, other that a bid approach i guess and that would not double the share price

anyway i bought some yesterday and will continue to build a stake.

WJ.

[edmundshaw] 02/2/2017 09:36

5%+ is not really skinny margins. It is a bit better than Interserve, and considerably better than some construction companies. A growing %age of the business is services, which has margins around 6%.

[rcturner2] 02/2/2017 09:34

As I have said many times, the shorters know more than anyone on this thread. What success rate do you think shorters have? Obviously it is not 100% but it is not 0% either. So there is a non zero % chance that there is something materially wrong here.

[bookbroker] 02/2/2017 09:31

The way this co. is shorted one can assume that the only thing that drive them out at these levels is talk or an actual offer on the table, they clearly believe that the funding the requires to fulfil its contractual obligations makes the company vulnerable to the skinny margins they generate, it is not really an investable proposition based upon that thesis, however the dividend is what keeps the longs in the game, for as long as it remains intact.

[spoole5] 02/2/2017 09:28

Well that's the shortest rally in history!!!

[jaf1948] 02/2/2017 09:07

m4rtinu,

The FCA site shows it having gone down to 19.38%. At least one of them is wrong !

[warranty] 02/2/2017 09:03

Wind re your post 3440, at what point would a share be a buy, I can't really answer that easily because there are so many elements to consider. I'm no chartist so I concentrate on what I see happening which is likely to continue. Shares can often move higher on short term news then quickly fall back again as indeed CLLN itself did last summer. If I'm considering buying a falling share I try to understand as much of the reason behind it so that I can determine a material positive change. I'm currently in that position with CLLN but having difficulty determining why the shorting is so strong and what would end it. No doubt this is a good company but there's clearly an issue and I just don't get what that is yet so for me it isn't a buy and there are safer homes for my money, including cash just now.

[m4rtinu] 02/2/2017 08:55

Nearly forgot: good news on the Openreach contract extension (RNS above).

Latest declared short positions have edged this over 23%.

[m4rtinu] 02/2/2017 08:51

CLLN good rise early on. No spare cash and probably overweight in these (for my modest holdings). Tempted to sell others to buy more of these. At least it is reducing my losses.

PS: Whilst we are in light-hearted mood:

Casual Labourer (knocks on door of posh house)
Lady of house (answers door)
CL - do you need any work doing
Lady - well you could paint my porch

You can guess what happened!

[essentialinvestor] 02/2/2017 08:42

The ladies do love a Porsche, then again you leave yourself open to
the term menoporsche if not in the first flush of youth ).

[lord gnome] 02/2/2017 08:35

The shorters aren't going to capitulate easily. They will strengthen their grip as the day progresses and drive this back down. I dream of a bear squeeze a la Porsche, but it just isn't going to happen - yet. What beats me is where the shorters are getting their stock. Which institutions are letting them borrow over 20% of the company to drive down the share price? Are they still borrowing more stock? I think we should be told.

[113mike] 02/2/2017 08:24

Can't think why anyone would think this going down? Bought in first thing myself at £2.23..The div will be good for my drawdown SIPP!

[jaf1948] 02/2/2017 08:17

I am not a spiteful person but I hope the shorters lose much if not all of their ill-gotten gains.

[spoole5] 02/2/2017 08:07

Massive bear squeeze coming here. Bring it on!

[edmundshaw] 02/2/2017 08:04

Yep, if the shorters want to stay in the game they are potentially going to have to add fresh money. If I were short and ahead, I would seriously consider bailing...

[blackbear] 02/2/2017 07:43

More good news. Game on shorters.....

[blackbear] 01/2/2017 21:22

Back in July the share price went 220>300 in 8 weeks, could be a replica move here.

[m4rtinu] 01/2/2017 19:21

Thank you.

[cw2000] 01/2/2017 16:57

m4rtin - there is a daily update on the fca web site.
fca.org.uk

[m4rtinu] 01/2/2017 16:44

Shorttracker only showing positions up to and incl Friday, so may be a couple of days before we can see any change.

[blackbear] 01/2/2017 16:36

20% of stock to be bought back by shorters, that's one hell of a large position should be fun watching.

[blackbear] 01/2/2017 15:58

Nice price action today looks like the bottom is in. 300p within 3 months.

[redartbmud] 01/2/2017 13:20

It looks like an orderly handover. There is no mention of penalties for non-performance. Let us hope so.
Good luck to the in-house team that takes up the reins. Running hospital cleaning contracts is not a bundle of fun, and I would suspect that the margins are tight.

wind
I think that you are right. They operate well within borrowing limits.

[jaf1948] 01/2/2017 13:10

wad, Are you sure this is a bad thing for CLLN ? I ask this quite openly as many NHS contracts have very small profit margins - I don't know about this one.