Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[w1ndjammer] 31/1/2017 17:13

speed

interesting Investec thought it was cheap in October 2015 well it was average 300p
then so now at 216p and over 8% divi well looks like no one knows what to make
of it.

Even if the Bod manage to keep the numbers steady over the next few years
and the divi static. eventually the shorters will need the close out its costing
them 18.25p plus per year. only needs a new major buyer to enter the field, and they
will need to hand the stock back.

WJ.

[speedsgh] 31/1/2017 16:03

From this Oct 2015 FT article...

Carillion draws short sellers’ attention -

...But last week Andrew Gibb, analyst at Investec, told clients: “Carillion remains an enigma. On the one hand, it looks a cheap stock with one of the biggest dividend yields in the sector; on the other, it carries one of the biggest short positions in the market.” He claimed that “concerns centre on the increasing average debt position and absence of underlying profit growth over the past few years”...

[redartbmud] 31/1/2017 15:52

m4. No, I assume that it was placed when issued. In that case it would be with a number of institutions.

red

[m4rtinu] 31/1/2017 14:32

A couple of snipits from today's papers:

Possible positive, re construction?

According to Telegraph:

"The biggest UK regional cities are reporting record levels of construction activity, boosted by new transport links and the rise in popularity of city centre living. Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Belfast have all seen a significant increase in development across a number of sectors, according to the latest Deloitte crane survey."

And negative, re Mid East?

And, according to Guardian:

"Tax-free living will soon be a thing of the past for Saudis after its cabinet on Monday approved an IMF-backed value-added tax to be imposed across the Gulf following an oil slump. A 5% levy will apply to certain goods following an agreement with the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council in June last year."

[jaf1948] 31/1/2017 14:18

Thank you for that. So the next questions are what is the significance of the shorters being from the USA and is it a good or bad thing if they all know each other.

[m4rtinu] 31/1/2017 14:16

Red - thanks. Any idea who does own the Conv Stock?

Lab - a degree of shorting to this extent is not in anyone's interest, except the shorters. It would be sad if a company had to adopt a strategy just because of this.

Perhaps when the overall short position on a company reaches a certain threshold, the LSE should investigate. According to our shortinteresttracker 18 companies have short % over 5%; 9 in excess of 7%; and "top of the pops" our own CLLN as we know.

[redartbmud] 31/1/2017 14:15

Via the Company Secretary's office at the last AGM. I was introduced to a corporate affairs executive (forgotten his name) who was present at the meeting. Part of his role is major shareholder liaison. I asked the question and we discussed the matter at great length.
The information given was not price sensitive, nor was it in ant way compromising. Just honest.

[jaf1948] 31/1/2017 14:09

redartbmud, What's your source please ? The fact that two of them have UK in their titles is a bit of a give away. Are they all Harvard graduates ? How do you know they all know each other ?

I'm sure the statement that they do not own any of the convertible stock is true if the company has confirmed it but what about the rest of it. If you are going to put out statements like that (especially in capital letters) without supporting information, it is not very helpful to the rest of us.

[redartbmud] 31/1/2017 14:02

It would appear that some people on this board cannot read a repeated message.
For the VERY LAST TIME.
THE SHORTERS ARE 14 US HEDGE FUNDS RUN BY EX GRADUATES FROM HARVARD, THEY KNOW EACH OTHER INTIMATELY. THEY DO NOT OWN ANY OF THE CONVERTIBLE STOCK.
Confirmed by the Company - They could not make the statement if it were untrue.

[zcaprd7] 31/1/2017 12:24

Well, yes, seems like a no brainer, even £100m at 4% would sort them out?

[lab305] 31/1/2017 11:56

zcap I agree completely. They should do something to support the shareholders. Running the business well is obviously not enough. There is a crisis of confidence here and it needs to be addressed.The short sellers have acted en masse to create this situation and cast a pall of negatively over the company. Meanwhile I bought another 5k shares this morning.

[essentialinvestor] 31/1/2017 11:40

If the divi was halved the share price would be higher imv- unless that was
accompanied by a weak update.

It's partly the apparent incongruity of yield that is unsettling some.

[edmundshaw] 31/1/2017 11:37

Might lose some income fund holdings... a lot of people like their dividends.

[zcaprd7] 31/1/2017 10:59

Hmm, if they can borrow at 3%, why not not fund a share buyback scheme with debt, and save paying out the 8% dividend? With the added bonus of sending the shorters scattering...

[w1ndjammer] 31/1/2017 10:51

well i have started buying was waiting for 200p but over 8% divi is good enough
for me. its well covered so can see no reason for a cut.

i bought a chunk in RDSB last year with a 8.5% divi every analyst was saying
divi would be cut, well it hasn`t been cut, and the share price has not stopped rising since.

WJ.

[essentialinvestor] 31/1/2017 10:14

speed, thanks.

[jimbo44] 31/1/2017 10:11

Been a holder for sometime and just added. At the current share price on the face of it this appears a no brainer. Fully understand all the negative issues but even so with the company announcing in Dec in-line expectations the 8%+ dividend is too good to miss. Over time it seems to me that one of two things will happen. Either the dividend will be cut or the share price will increase if the dividend is not cut. What is sure is that the yield will come down by one means or another. You just take your view on the medium term risk and in the meantime hopefully reap the dividend benefit.

[wad collector] 31/1/2017 10:09

Some good news... hxxp://www.building.co.uk/carillion-wins-%C2%A349m-scottish-rail-deal/5085760.article
Another contract that not RNSed 2 weeks ago , but every little £49M helps.....

[speedsgh] 31/1/2017 09:32

EI - Those figures look about right cf.

NOTE: John McDonough & Donald Kenny are no longer with CLLN so possible that their shareholdings are no longer up-to-date.

[essentialinvestor] 31/1/2017 09:19

Director holding appear very modest here?, I have taken the information
from D LOOK, just wonder if those are correct.

[soi] 31/1/2017 08:05

Hi

Entered long position 218.24.
Another add if sub 210 seen.

ATB

soi

[staylow1] 31/1/2017 07:55

I see further position increases on short tracker today. What's the usually strategy employed by the funds when shorting in such volumes? Just constantly taking out the bit to keep the price artificially low?Do funds complete against each other to potentially cause a "short squeeze" for those who are in a short position?

[blackbear] 30/1/2017 21:51

Bought in here today. I'm pretty good at bottom fishing. target 300p.