Cloudbreak Discovery Share Discussion Threads

[tolstoi] 24/11/2008 11:13

end of 2007 seems to have been correct.

[crazy russian] 22/11/2008 11:19

david
i think we have got to face up to the fact that Cardinal should be in the bottom drawer
its best use, at least for the time being will be as drawer liners

IF
IF
IF

they ever return then they SHOULD be of some value
you may prefer to read that as 'MIGHT'
but IMO that will depend on whether or not and by how much the management has milked it in the meantime.

they will be making sure that pensions etc are fully funded and other employment perks are fully utilised
I have many 000's too many of these but intend to wait
(if it helps I waited for JKX and it paid off)
though I do wish I had sold ALL and accepted CGT instead of dripping out £9000 per year!

[david brent] 21/11/2008 19:56

xena, are you suggesting that cardinal may not relist for 12/18 months?

[xenawarriorprincess] 20/11/2008 23:02

Well tolstoi, I'm afraid I can't agree.

I don't know what we will be left with, but I'm sure it won't be zilch and will be more than we've got at the moment - that is 3p on J.P Jenkins.

There may be share dilutions, hopefully not too many, but I think that present shareholders will be left with a decent proportion of the "new Cardinal" in due course and that it will be worth having, or at least worth more than 3p.

I'm not under any illusion that Cardinal any longer holds the promise it once had in Ukraine, with potential for big reserves and production, and a possible shareprice north of 100p, but then that was what we (or rather I) thought would happen in the years following 2006/7.

Ukraine, and indeed the world is suddenly a very different place to the heady days of only 18 months ago.

All oil companies have been trashed over the last 12 months, JKX is now 129p and Regal 38p, both lower than only a few days ago and a fraction of what they were only 6 months ago.

Even if Cardinal had remained on the market and in Ukraine the share price may not have been significantly above the 3p it is at present, the main difference would have been that they would have been tradable over the last 12 months and people could have exited.

The present worldwide correction may yet have some considerable way to go before it plays out - are we in the final capitulation of the markets, or is this merely yet another leg down and we are yet to get close to the bottom? I suspect the final capitulation is yet to come, people are still taking note of the bad news, and there seems much more bad news to come.

But the world is likely to be quite different in another 12/18 months or so. The Dow will have bottomed, whether it be at 7300, 6400 or 5400, or even lower who knows, but I'm quite sure a recovery will have begun.

Nor do I believe that this is the end of Pax Americana.

The US Industrial Giant, built on cheap oil, will re-assert itself, but China's "economic miracle" burdened by vast overcapacity and dictatorship will have evaporated, Russia will have been shown to be a paper tiger and the Arabs (and Iran) will have had a nasty dose of much lower oil prices.

Whilst oil will not return anytime soon to the days of $100/barrel the world (particularly the US) will still need oil and the price will stabilise, quite where I don't know but I would guess around $60-$70/barrel.

What does all this mean for Cardinal?

Condor should be producing a minimum of 140bpd by now, and 200bpd, (possibly much more) by the end of the year and by the beginning of 2009 be earnings positive EBITDA. Cardinal has 55% of that and can take that up to 73% within the next couple of years at a relatively modest cost.

Part of the problem is that Rob Bensh, for whatever reason, isn't giving much information away. But I cannot believe that the $10M invested in Colombia, the $25M being invested in Oklahoma and the $18M he wants this year for investment will gain us a nil return.

Oil shares seem to be assuming that oil prices will keep falling, and quite a few oil companies are valued at less than their cash balances. But oil prices will stabilise, and once the markets begin to recognise that the world is not, after all, returning to some sort of stone age, will begin to recover again.

Oil and investment in it will become, if not exactly fashionable again, then at least acceptable.

And then Cardinal will return to the market - at what price, well I don't know, but I think that each share we presently hold will be worth more than 3p.

Regards,

Xena

[tolstoi] 20/11/2008 12:49

Yes Xena, only what do you think the current shareholders will get if Benschy succeeds? Let me hint: Starts with B, ends with l, middle letters: ugger al.

[writz] 18/11/2008 23:10

Thanks, Xena. Perhaps someone should introduce Bensch to UEN, talking of undervalued assets!

[xenawarriorprincess] 18/11/2008 21:40

He is tenacious - and Cardinal (soon to be Taurex) aren't done yet.

If (and I accept that it cannot be guaranteed) Rob Bensh can raise the funds he wants ($18m in 2009) then he could make some very attractively priced investments.

Not only are PLC shares close to "rock bottom" prices (eg JKX 2008 peak 550p to 145p, RPT 2008 peak 300p to 44p to name but two) but presumably the values of many struggling and cash strapped private companies will also have fallen very significantly.

Any oilman with a decent amount of cash (even if borrowed) could be in a position to buy up some cheap assets.

Of course it all depends on Rob Bensh being able to borrow money - and there doesn't appear at the present time to be much cash for loans swilling about the system. However if he could raise $35M on decent terms through Condor Exploration Inc. in June 2008, when the credit crunch was already in full swing, (although oil was over $100/barrel) then in principle I see no reason why he cannot borrow another $18M in 2009.

That $18M for 2009 appears to be for projects in Oklahoma (and possibly Colombia) which do not presently form part of the Condor portfolio.

What may make Cardinal/Taurex different to other oil companies is the presence on the Board of three non-executives who are senior directors of three different fund managers, which should at least make the raising of finance easier than it might otherwise be.

Okay, I accept that many shareholders are disappointed over past performance (to say the least) however the new Cardinal/Taurex is a quite different company to the old Cardinal - we are no longer an explorer and direct producer - but basically a source of assets for the finance men in New York, Ukraine and possibly the Middle East.

It seems to me that Rob Bensh & Co ie Cardinal/Taurex are there to identify and source underpriced/undervalued assets and then act as a conduit for the aforesaid money men to enable them to make investments in those assets quicker and more effectively than might otherwise be the case.

The reward obtained by Cardinal/Taurex is to obtain a stake (and services agreement) at a relatively small cost in those assets.

It seems to me no coincidence that the non-executives on the Board are now dominated by men who run investment funds - and despite the credit crunch there is still a lot of money around looking for decent, low cost investment opportunities.

Rob Bensh may be just the man to provide the non-executives and their respective funds with those opportunities through Cardinal/Taurex.

As always IMHO, DYOR etc,

Xena

[sg31] 18/11/2008 18:54

Writz,If I said what i like about Bensch I would probably get arrested.

[writz] 18/11/2008 14:10

Not me, I'm afraid. Re 3416, however, looking forward to the emergence of a new set up with a reasonable hope of recouping losses on CDL. Better than receivership. And say what you like about Bensch, at least he's tenacious.

[david brent] 18/11/2008 08:51

anyone going to the EGM on the 1st of Dec?

[david brent] 03/11/2008 23:31

he even has the audacity to put his ugly mug in the presentation, at least anyone out to get him will know who to look for.

[xenawarriorprincess] 03/11/2008 18:43

2007 Annual Report

[david brent] 03/11/2008 16:42

This website is undergoing significant development, and as such some pages are not currently available.

[david brent] 30/10/2008 22:30

zengas, regardless of the market situation this year i don't believe they ever intended to relist in 2008, the talk was always of early 2009. lets hope it doesn't turn out like their website update.

[chesney hawks] 30/10/2008 14:49

what exchange Zengas?

[zengas] 30/10/2008 13:24

Dire markets since mid year made new listing unfeasible.

Planning to list Q1 from what i can gather.

[tolstoi] 30/10/2008 11:51

Has there been any accounts filed by Cardinal describing the results of their KECC sale?

What I want to know is is there any cash in the bank account?

[rhuvaal] 28/10/2008 13:45

on my birthday, can at least hope for a good session...

[turbotrader2] 28/10/2008 11:43

AGM december 1st

[david brent] 28/10/2008 09:44

zengas, i take it they had nothing new to say!

[crazy russian] 22/10/2008 19:25

hasta manyana!
or is it
ate logo!