I'm not an investor (yet). Looking at the history back in December 2019 it reached 163p then by May 200 it was down to 31p. Does anyone know what happened in 2020 apart from covid which i guess did impact the high street stores. The recent fall from 141p in September 2024 looks to be a very similar downward path.
As a newbie on CARD I assume the Xmas period is its peak trading period so the 2020 fall looks as if it was linked to the end of the Xmas period.
Given Xmas is its best trading period shouldn't the price be climbing now not falling?
As I say I'm not an investor in CARD but always interested in recovery stocks - is CARD a recovery stock or an end of line stock? |
Aye they are a laugh a minute, the mask phobia alone should get them into a BAFTA award. |
I know hilarious. Paul Scott massive loss to Stocko. I was a bad person for thanking him. Some people should reflect that moderating people says more about their own insecurities, made me laugh though! |
Junebug - if BB did want to try at 120p, I am not sure that would fly, but he would have to offer the ability for existing shareholders to roll in alongside - which I would do depending on his timeframe and exit plans. |
Junebug - as you know a suitor would have to pay a premium and given the share price was 143p a few weeks ago - it would have to in that ball park at least imho. Also it would be a brave buyer to step up before Xmas given how important that is to the business. Private equity has the issue of how they exit. It could appeal to someone who wants a steady cash flow though. |
Omron
Good analysis. Thank you.
I have said before that the valuation now is ridiculously low compared to when CARD shops were closed and it was making losses with banks wanting it to raise £70 million. CARD avoided this when banks saw how much cash was being generated as soon as shops opened again. |
For a bit of fun I thought I would compare the enterprise value (MCap plus debt incl leases) today to the depths of Covid. I have used the debt figures from the AR 2020,2021 and 2024. The share prices were 1/3/20 32.8p and 1/1/21 35.8p, today it closed at 84.5p. The net debt in the FY20 report was 289m and at January 24 was 135.2m. The debt reduction of 153.8m divided by 348m shares gives a 44.2p reduction per share and we have had two dividends 4.5p and 1.2p. If you take all three of these off the closing share price today it gives you an adjusted share price of 34.6p. So Card Factory share price is currently valued in line with the depths of Covid when shops were shut and many believed it would go bust. If that is not crazy I don't know what is. Fill your boots while you can. |
O/T Over the last few years I sent several messages into political media programmes asking them to ask Labour what they meant by “working people”, as they’ve used that phrase a boring number of times.
Post election Kuenssberg on Sunday started asking the question over and over again with “awkward”; results. Also Starmer was asked what he meant with equally embarrasing results.
Perhaps it was a semi-conscious attempt by Labour to stir up the old class system, but its shot them in the foot.
“At what level of earnings does someone stop being a ‘working person’?”; - that was one awkward question.
I take no credit but it was very satisfying. They’ve had to define it now and it doesn’t include v small business owners. Honest government here we come…?! |
I think undervalued. However grossly undervalued, perhaps not anymore. The headwinds are strong. Risk free rates are going to be quite sticky. Long term valuations may be depressed for some time to come. I'm sure we'll get a bump if numbers come in moderately close to target, but there's a lot of pressures. I'd see a multiple expansion to 10 or 11, but beyond this will depend on how the market perceives the return on the growth levers in US Australia etc. great to watch it play out over the next couple of years |
200 million pounds |
Marks and Sainsbury are expected to take a £200 hit to their tax bills. Sky news. All retailers and hospitality are getting hit. In reality the online sheds will be as well. |
Junebug & Yump. Your comments made me look at the Moonpig investor site. They have published an October 2024 OC&C report with some interesting slides. Online card sales are 15% of the UK market (they see this growing to 20% by 2027). Greetings cards are one of the most resilient categories in a recession. Online ASP is £4.40 and they don't see price as a barrier to online penetration. Between 2019 and 2023 Moonpig increased its market share from 60 to 70percent whilst Funky Pigeon fell from 21 to 12%. Perhaps not being properly managed by WHSmith who may sell to CF? FP sales £32m and ebitda £5m (down from £8m prior year). Attachment of gifts/cash to cards is 63percent which increases the addressable market byc15x - hence the CF management strategy |
2junebug
Yes all retailers have equal business models.
Except some are more equal than others.
O/t
Dismissing the US businesses as flashy is fair in some cases, but they are increasingly owning the world.
Subscribing to live is the business model. |
Bbonsall
Perhaps you haven’t noticed but a vast number of UK residents are paying subscriptions to US corporations. They’ve got you for life.
I think thats worth rather a high valuation as a business.
Anyway I’m done here with the business teach-in. Its falling on ears covered by headphones. |
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